ATL: IRENE - Models

[BensonTCwatcher]

Thanks for slaying the model graphics Jevo! looks like the gratest variables synoptics-wise are in the next 24 hours, then we are dead on (if not already) for a NC barrier island landfall bewteen Morehead City and Hatteras. GSF Euro and ECMWF are all on top of each other looks like. However, I don't get the feeling many here are really looking at the windfield potential, massive rainfall, and amount of surge this will push into the Pamlico and VA river country a la Chasapeake. Larger storms push more water.

[hsvwx]

Anyone know how reliable the ECMWF graphics are on wunderground.com? 12Z ECMWF, according to wunderground, initialized about 10 mb too low in pressure, and brings this down to approximately 912 mb hurricane. Compensating for the 10 mb difference still brings it down to 922. I see other graphics that have 947 as the pressure, so just wondering if the the graphics at wunderground are not quite right! Thanks for the answers!

[Jevo]

Euro 12z +72



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[SunnyThoughts]

I know the HWRF is known to make a cat 5 cane out of a thunderstorm...but I always assumed the EURO was pretty much correct when it came to pressure. I sure hope it is wrong.

[Jevo]

Euro 12z +94 (984mb into Connecticut?)



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[Ivanhater]

Euro looks to track right into New York city

[GreenWinds]

Euro looks to track right into New York city

How strong is it projected to be when passing NYC?

[dgparent]

Cat 1 I believe

Euro looks to track right into New York city

How strong is it projected to be when passing NYC?

[benjammin]

Euro looks to track right into New York city

How strong is it projected to be when passing NYC?

Cat 1 I believe according to the lastest Euro if I understand correctly.

[HurrMark]

Probably Cat 1 if it mostly stays offshore...a strong TS if it hits a bunch of land in between (my guess, not official)

[seahawkjd]

So the Euro seems about the same as the 0z run to my eyes. I can't find the link to compare the different runs. If anyone has it handy I'd be appreciative.

[TropicalWXMA]

18Z Update:

[Brent]

18z model updates per Colorado State site:

[clfenwi]

12Z ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL/GFS loop

72h

[Jevo]

18z GFS firing up

[GoneBabyGone]

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm not buying the more westward track, and here is why:

ON A LARGER SCALE...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIANCES IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF A COMPLICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPEARS TO PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THE PATH
OF IRENE DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE
00Z GFS IS NOTICEABLY FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH
AS IT REACHES THE MIDWEST ON DAY 3 WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED AS IS ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN
OFFER INTERMEDIATE SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS A PRUDENT PLACE TO LIE
UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND CAN BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY THE
MORE DENSE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK FOR ASSIMILATION INTO THE MODELS.
UNTIL THEN...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
THIS DIGGING TROF SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN REASON FOR THE ECMWFS MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 2 CYCLES OF HURRICANE IRENE AND NEEDS
TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE GO INTO THE SHORTER RANGE.
AGAIN...REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE.


Source:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

I feel the Western models could be over deepening the Trough. We will soon see I guess. Right now I'm thinking a track across Eastern Long Island and SE Mass.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[GoneBabyGone]

I'm not buying the more westward track, and here is why:

ON A LARGER SCALE...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIANCES IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF A COMPLICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPEARS TO PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THE PATH
OF IRENE DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE
00Z GFS IS NOTICEABLY FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH
AS IT REACHES THE MIDWEST ON DAY 3 WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED AS IS ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN
OFFER INTERMEDIATE SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS A PRUDENT PLACE TO LIE
UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND CAN BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY THE
MORE DENSE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK FOR ASSIMILATION INTO THE MODELS.
UNTIL THEN...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
THIS DIGGING TROF SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN REASON FOR THE ECMWFS MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 2 CYCLES OF HURRICANE IRENE AND NEEDS
TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE GO INTO THE SHORTER RANGE.
AGAIN...REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE.


Source:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

I feel the Western models could be over deepening the Trough. We will soon see I guess. Right now I'm thinking a track across Eastern Long Island and SE Mass.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Can you put that in english for us non-mets?

[KWT]

Models have shuifted westwards a little back to maybe an outer Banks strike followed a hit on Lond Island/New York.

going to be a most interesting and worrying few days for the east c oast.

PS, ECM took Earl down to about 912mbs at 30N, so the ECm is known for not weakening storms quickly enough in the mid-latitudes.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

GoneBabyGone Irene's final path will be determined by a large and complex Upper Level Trough that is currently moving into the Pacific NW. Some models are deepening the Trough, as it moves through the Midwest to the point it takes on a negative tilt and kind of pulls Irene back west towards the coast as the Trough comes in from the West. Whereas other models keep the Trough weaker, and it kind of nudges Irene ahead of it move towards the East rather than pulling it back towards it.