WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
WTPQ20 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 23.8N 119.3E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 24.9N 118.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 311800UTC 25.5N 116.8E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
JTWC Dvorak estimate:
TPPN11 PGTW 291823
A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 29/1732Z
C. 23.6N
D. 118.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/3.5/W2.0/24HRS STT: W1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .55 WRAP YIELDED A 2.5 DT. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. FT WEAKENED 1.0 IN 6 HOURS DUE TO
FRAGMENTED CNVCTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 23.8N 119.3E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 24.9N 118.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 311800UTC 25.5N 116.8E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
JTWC Dvorak estimate:
TPPN11 PGTW 291823
A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 29/1732Z
C. 23.6N
D. 118.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/3.5/W2.0/24HRS STT: W1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .55 WRAP YIELDED A 2.5 DT. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. FT WEAKENED 1.0 IN 6 HOURS DUE TO
FRAGMENTED CNVCTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST
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WTPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 23.6N 118.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 118.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.1N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 24.4N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 24.7N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.9N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 118.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 29/1729Z AMSR-E 89
GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IR IMAGERY AND RECENT RADAR DATA WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24 AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W
(TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
TXPQ25 KNES 292131
TCSWNP
A. 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 29/2032Z
C. 23.9N
D. 119.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/3.5/W1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...NANMADOL HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY PAST 24 HRS AS LLCC IS
NOW EXPOSED AND CLOUD TOPS TEMPS WITH CONVECTIVE BAND ARE WARMER. LLCC
PRESENTATION IN AMSRE PASS IS A BIT MUDDLED BUT SUFFICIENT FOR PCN OF
3. 5 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG SPIRAL GIVES DT=2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
29/1729Z 23.8N 119.1E AMSRE
...RUMINSKI
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 23.6N 118.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 118.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.1N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 24.4N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 24.7N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.9N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 118.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 29/1729Z AMSR-E 89
GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IR IMAGERY AND RECENT RADAR DATA WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24 AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W
(TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
TXPQ25 KNES 292131
TCSWNP
A. 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 29/2032Z
C. 23.9N
D. 119.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/3.5/W1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...NANMADOL HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY PAST 24 HRS AS LLCC IS
NOW EXPOSED AND CLOUD TOPS TEMPS WITH CONVECTIVE BAND ARE WARMER. LLCC
PRESENTATION IN AMSRE PASS IS A BIT MUDDLED BUT SUFFICIENT FOR PCN OF
3. 5 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG SPIRAL GIVES DT=2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
29/1729Z 23.8N 119.1E AMSRE
...RUMINSKI
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00Z JMA:
WTPQ20 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 23.9N 119.1E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 24.7N 118.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 010000UTC 25.3N 117.1E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
Last KNES statement had it right in calling this system "muddled":
TPPN11 PGTW 300022
A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 29/2332Z
C. 23.7N
D. 119.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/3.0 STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .55 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDED A 2.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST
WTPQ20 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 23.9N 119.1E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 24.7N 118.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 010000UTC 25.3N 117.1E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
Last KNES statement had it right in calling this system "muddled":
TPPN11 PGTW 300022
A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 29/2332Z
C. 23.7N
D. 119.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/3.0 STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .55 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDED A 2.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST
0 likes
WTPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 23.8N 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 119.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.1N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 24.5N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.7N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.9N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 119.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND
310300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING
NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. 300300Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 119.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE (LLCC). A
29/2156Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THIS CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY AND THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36 AND
WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST.//
NNNN
WTPQ30 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 300000 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
Latest Dvorak estimate:
TXPQ25 KNES 300316
TCSWNP
A. 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 30/0232Z
C. 24.2N
D. 119.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...5-6 TENTHS BROKEN BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT
ARE 2.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NEWHARD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 23.8N 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 119.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.1N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 24.5N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.7N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.9N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 119.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND
310300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING
NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. 300300Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 119.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE (LLCC). A
29/2156Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THIS CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY AND THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36 AND
WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST.//
NNNN
WTPQ30 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 300000 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
Latest Dvorak estimate:
TXPQ25 KNES 300316
TCSWNP
A. 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 30/0232Z
C. 24.2N
D. 119.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...5-6 TENTHS BROKEN BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT
ARE 2.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NEWHARD
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ZCZC 922
WTPQ20 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 24.4N 119.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310600UTC 25.1N 118.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 010600UTC 25.5N 116.8E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN
TPPN11 PGTW 300627
A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 30/0532Z
C. 24.5N
D. 119.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. 75NM OF SHEAR YIELDS A 2.0
DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BELMONDO
WTPQ20 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 24.4N 119.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310600UTC 25.1N 118.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 010600UTC 25.5N 116.8E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN
TPPN11 PGTW 300627
A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 30/0532Z
C. 24.5N
D. 119.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. 75NM OF SHEAR YIELDS A 2.0
DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BELMONDO
0 likes
WTPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 24.5N 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 24.9N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 25.2N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.4N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 118.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 70 NM TO THE SOUTH.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. TS 14W IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
TXPQ25 KNES 300910
TCSWNP
A. 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 30/0832Z
C. 24.2N
D. 119.2E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.5/W1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...3 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NEWHARD
0 likes
WTPQ20 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 24.5N 119.0E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 312100UTC 25.0N 117.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 011800UTC 25.1N 116.2E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
WTPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 14W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 24.5N 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 24.7N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.9N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.0N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 118.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAKENING, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 30 KNOTS. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z,
310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING
NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
WEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST.//
NNNN
TXPQ25 KNES 302104
TCSWNP
A. 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 30/2032Z
C. 24.7N
D. 118.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. OVERLAND
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS SYSTEM MOVES
OVER WATER.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
30/1811Z 24.4N 119.2E AMSRE
...GUILLOT
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 24.5N 119.0E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 312100UTC 25.0N 117.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 011800UTC 25.1N 116.2E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
WTPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 14W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 24.5N 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 24.7N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.9N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.0N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 118.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAKENING, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 30 KNOTS. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z,
310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING
NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
WEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST.//
NNNN
TXPQ25 KNES 302104
TCSWNP
A. 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 30/2032Z
C. 24.7N
D. 118.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. OVERLAND
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS SYSTEM MOVES
OVER WATER.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
30/1811Z 24.4N 119.2E AMSRE
...GUILLOT
0 likes
00Z JMA:
WTPQ20 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 24.7N 118.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 25.5N 117.4E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
TPPN11 PGTW 310027
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 30/2332Z
C. 25.0N
D. 118.8E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE
DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST
WTPQ20 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 24.7N 118.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 25.5N 117.4E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
TPPN11 PGTW 310027
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 30/2332Z
C. 25.0N
D. 118.8E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE
DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST
0 likes
JTWC writes last advisory as of 03Z:
WTPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 24.9N 118.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 118.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 25.1N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.3N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 118.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 14W IS CURRENTLY INLAND AND IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 24.9N 118.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 118.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 25.1N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.3N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 118.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 14W IS CURRENTLY INLAND AND IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
0 likes
FYI, JMA wrote last advisory on Nanmadol at 06Z:
WTPQ20 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 25N 118E
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA =
And had it as a TD with the 12Z analysis but now has it as a LPA with the 18Z update:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1000 HPA NEAR 24N 117E WSW SLOWLY.
WTPQ20 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 25N 118E
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA =
And had it as a TD with the 12Z analysis but now has it as a LPA with the 18Z update:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1000 HPA NEAR 24N 117E WSW SLOWLY.
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