WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[StormingB81]

Located Near: 10N and 135E

the the NE of 95W my guess is the stronger one wins?

JTWC already has it as low:

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.6N 135.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING BUT STILL UNORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A
191240Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WEAK 10- TO 15-KNOT LLCC WITH STRONGER
20-KNOT WESTERLIES DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS
FROM PALAU ARE 1007 TO 1008 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[StormingB81]

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZAUG2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.8N
147.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 147.3E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 192239Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
CURVED CONVECTION INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) WITH DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N
135.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
POORLY ORGANIZED LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A
191240Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WEAK 10- TO 15-KNOT LLCC WITH STRONGER
20-KNOT WESTERLIES DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS
FROM PALAU ARE 1007 TO 1008 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH A STR AXIS IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

This must be the one which ECMWF has been developing for a while now. Quite a bit of inconsistency between its runs at the moment but latest 00z shows are direct hit on.... you guessed it, Okinawa!

Will be interesting to see if and when ECMWF locks down a more consistent track.

[dexterlabio]

^lol the euro really wanted the island to be blown away. but the 00z run confuses me a bit, because 2 closed systems are shown developing east of PI both tracking west of north but then by 8/25 the system farther east remained and the other one vanished, as I assume. That low pressure system was shown to track NW towards Okinawa. So basically that runs says the other circulation will be sucked into another circulation, isn't it?

[Typhoon Hunter]

^lol the euro really wanted the island to be blown away. but the 00z run confuses me a bit, because 2 closed systems are shown developing east of PI both tracking west of north but then by 8/25 the system farther east remained and the other one vanished, as I assume. That low pressure system was shown to track NW towards Okinawa. So basically that runs says the other circulation will be sucked into another circulation, isn't it?

It certainly a weird run - maybe the presence of 2 circulations has thrown the run off a bit because our main typhoon looks to form much further east than this current Invest. All a bit confusing!

[StormingB81]

The funny thing is it shows a hit next weekend.....next weekend is supposed to be the 4th Festival for the bases here on Okinawa...ALL have been cancalled due to tropical systems...lol how odd would that be if this one hits and all have been cancelled

[dexterlabio]

Good thing a simpler track map for me was out (euro latest run)

Yeah showing the main system tracking towards Okinawa to suck in the weaker circulation to its SE.

[StormingB81]

Could be an interersting week

[StormingB81]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N
133.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN TO WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 201132Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. A 201219Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK 10- TO 15-KNOT LLCC WITH
STRONGER 20-KNOT WESTERLIES DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. PRESSURE
OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU ARE 1008 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[StormingB81]

[StormingB81]

[KWT]

Big gyre with 96W, actually not all that different from Irene!

[euro6208]

yes okinawa looks to get hit by yet another tropical cyclone. we should expect to see our 14th and 15th storm by this week...

[StormingB81]

yes okinawa looks to get hit by yet another tropical cyclone. we should expect to see our 14th and 15th storm by this week...

It would be number 5 on the year

[StormingB81]

oh I know I was just saying it would be our 5th time effected by a tropical cyclone for the year..I wasn't talking about overall..sorry should have put that in there

[dexterlabio]

12z Euro. Same thing with the previous one.


Spin quite evident near the 130N latitude.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html

[dexterlabio]

Just to add, it seems that a TCFA will be issued soon, looking quite good now. (Personal Disclaimer goes here...)

[dexterlabio]

Yeah I was wrong. lol. Maybe the convection is deceiving, I thought it was already going spiral.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N
131.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTIPSECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN TO WESTERN PERIPHERIES. THIS IS
CORROBORATED BY A 210429Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH A DIFFLUENT AREA UNDER A STR
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

From JMA:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 12N 130E NW SLOWLY.

[phwxenthusiast]

the latest EURO run has gotten really weirder now... develops two circulations, both embedded along the monsoon trough, both of them intensify across the Philippine Sea and we then see a full-blown Fujiwhara Effect, moving towards the Okinawa-Ryukyus area...

obviously, with two systems directly interacting, the movement has slowed down and the effects it could have to the Japanese Islands have been delayed by at least a day or two...

i also want to note that CMC kinda shows the same thing (showed it too yesterday), albeit weaker, so can't really discount that solution... still long way out though, we don't even have the systems yet to begin with lol...