WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[StormingB81]

Looking at it it could miss tawain to the west....depends on some wobbles but it could happend

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[rdhdstpchld]

Stay safe James & Pat and all those who end up in harm's way wherever you are in the world!

Just hoping Aparri fared okay. I've seen some of the footage from Jim Edds from past Aparri storms and some of the population there seemed to live in simple construct homes with sheet metal roofing. However, I think they're much tougher people built of much more than my weakened western sensibilities. More power to them and hope they all weathered this just fine. I flew into Taipei, last year, and those mountains are beautiful but I wouldn't want to be near them during a good soaking!

Every DOD school system child was sobbing into their Cheerios, this morning, as we all broke the news that there would be no typhoon and they had better be prepared to get up for school in the morning.

At least the chanting (in my house) has stopped...it went something like "come typhoon! come typhoon!!" -- tee hee...mean mom that I am, I waited to tell them....but they know now

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 20.7N 121.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 290600UTC 22.5N 120.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 300600UTC 23.8N 120.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 310600UTC 24.3N 119.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[oaba09]

Here's a video showing the effects of nanmadol in luzon:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgvWz1XanMg

[phwxenthusiast]

Lanyu-an island just off of S. Taiwan-is now reporting gusts of up to 144kph min pressure around 988mb...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Latest Radar in Taiwan

[Infdidoll]

Death toll up to 8 in the Philippines. But this was certainly interesting -

A bus driver ordered his 18 passengers to rapidly alight after sensing the soggy mountain road they were on was about to collapse late Saturday in northern Benguet province. After they ran to safety, the road collapsed with the bus down a deep ravine, said regional disaster-response official Olive Luces said.

"The driver's presence of mind prevented a disaster," Luces said.

About 20 landslides cut off access to a number of Benguet towns, she said.


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/08/28 ... z1WKYJpNuu

[Chacor]

JTWC down to 75 kt at their 1500z warning. New track map has it tracking over the SW coast of Taiwan and making landfall in China within 72 hours.

[dexterlabio]

The southwest monsoon is clearly at its peak now and it was greatly induced by the storm's outflow, still rainy and windy as far south as Manila.

Burst of deep convection near the center and its headed to Southern Taiwan. That's a big issue for the folks out there. Winds can be considered good to cause trouble as it still remains at around typhoon-force.

I wish everyone in Taiwan their safety...

[supercane]

12Z advisory roundup:

ZCZC 618
WTPQ50 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 21.4N 121.0E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 23.6N 120.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 301200UTC 24.2N 119.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 311200UTC 24.4N 119.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 011200UTC 24.5N 118.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
120HF 021200UTC 24.6N 118.1E 260NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY =
NNNN
and 15Z update:
ZCZC 935
WTPQ20 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 21.7N 121.0E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 291500UTC 23.6N 119.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 301200UTC 24.2N 119.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 311200UTC 24.4N 119.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
NNNN

WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 21.5N 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 121.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.5N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.5N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.1N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.7N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.4N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 120.9E.
TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z,
290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
280937Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS TY 14W APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF TAIWAN. HOWEVER, RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIAL EYEWALL OVER
THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION
BASED PRIMARILY ON RADAR FIXES FROM TAIWAN BUT ALSO ON A PARTIAL
EYEWALL EVIDENT IN THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY BASED ON THE HIGHER RANGE OF DVORAK CI ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 14W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN
WESTWARD AFTER TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE BUILDING STR OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE 28/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CHINA IS FILLING AND THE ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL JAPAN AND
THE STR EXTENSION ARE MAINTAINING STRENGTH ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA
AND CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AND IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. TY 14W IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS ACROSS TAIWAN.
C. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER CHINA BY TAU 96,
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANTS MAY TRACK
BACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR HONG KONG. RE-DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.//
NNNN
Latest Taiwan radar:

TXPQ25 KNES 281555
TCSWNP
A. 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 28/1501Z
C. 22.0N
D. 121.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/AMSU
H. REMARKS...TAIWAN RADAR SUGGESTS LLCC SLIGHTLY REMOVED TO NE TO COLDEST
CLOUD TOPS. EMBEDDED CENTER OF LG YIELDS DT OF 4.5. MET = 4.0 AND PAT =
4.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
28/1140Z 22.0N 121.2E SSMIS
28/1257Z 22.1N 121.2E AMSU
...GUILLOT

[supercane]

18Z JMA (updated with 5 day):

WTPQ50 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 21.9N 121.0E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 23.7N 119.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 301800UTC 24.3N 118.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 311800UTC 24.3N 117.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 011800UTC 24.3N 117.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
120HF 021800UTC 24.3N 116.8E 260NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY =

TPPN12 PGTW 281845
A. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 28/1732Z
C. 22.1N
D. 121.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. AN EMBEDDED CENTER OF LG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. PT IS AT 4.0, WHILE MET IS 5.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/1257Z 21.6N 121.0E MMHS
HOUGH

[supercane]

JTWC 21Z advisory:
WTPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 22.1N 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 121.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.3N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 24.1N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.5N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 24.7N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.3N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.3N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 120.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

BTW, CWB (Taiwan) also has this as a typhoon:
07fW40281
WTCI RCTP 281800 =
WARNING VALID 291800Z =
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS =
TYPHOON 201111 (NANMADOL 201111) WARNING =
POSITION 281800Z AT TWO TWO POINT ZERO NORTH ( 22.0N ) ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST ( 121.0E ) =
MOVEMENT NEXT 24HRS NNW 9KM/HR
MIN SURFACE PRESSURE 965 HPA =
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTER 35 METER PER SECOND GUST 45 METER PER SECOND =
RADIUS OF OVER 15M/S WINDS 180 KM =
FORECAST POSITION =
12HRS VALID AT 290600Z AT TWO THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ( 23.0N ) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX EAST ( 120.6E )=
24HRS VALID AT 291800Z AT TWO THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ( 23.8N ) ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO EAST ( 120.2E )=
48HRS VALID AT 301800Z AT TWO FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ( 24.4N ) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE EAST ( 119.3E )=
72HRS VALID AT 311800Z AT TWO FOUR POINT SIX NORTH ( 24.6N ) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST ( 118.5E )=
SEA WARNING AREA =
THE SEA OF NORTH TAIWAN, THE SEA OF NORTHEAST TAIWAN, THE SEA OF SOUTHEAST TAIWAN, NORTH TAIWAN STRAIT, SOUTH TAIWAN STRAIT, BASHI CHANNEL =
LAND WARNING AREA =
TAIPEI CITY, NEW TAIPEI CITY, KEELUNG, YILAN COUNTY, TAOYUAN COUNTY, HSINCHU COUNTY, MIAOLI COUNTY, TAICHUNG City, CHANGHUA COUNTY, NANTOU COUNTY, YUNLIN COUNTY, CHIAYI COUNTY, TAINAN City, KAOHSIUNG City, PINGTUNG COUNTY, HUALIEN COUNTY, TAITUNG COUNTY, HENGCHUN Peninsula, PENGHU =

[supercane]

00Z JMA advisory:

WTPQ20 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 23.1N 120.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 24.1N 119.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 310000UTC 24.7N 118.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 010000UTC 25.1N 117.0E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Dvorak estimates:
TPPN11 PGTW 290026
A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 28/2332Z
C. 23.1N
D. 120.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/1828Z 22.2N 121.1E MMHS
HOUGH

TXPQ25 KNES 282113
TCSWNP
A. 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 28/2032Z
C. 22.5N
D. 121.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS... EMBEDDED CENTER YIELDS UNREP DT=5.0. MET=3.5 WITH PT=4.0.
FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SALEMI

[Chacor]

JTWC 03z has it slightly further up the coast (more SE of JMA position), nearer to Gaoxiung:

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 026
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 14W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 22.9N 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.8N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.4N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.7N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 24.9N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.1N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 120.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W
(TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING
NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR LOOPS FROM SOUTHERN TAIWAN VERIFY THAT
TS 14W IS CROSSING SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND WEAKENING. INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS A TREMENDOUS BURST OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND THE
NORTHERN LUZON STRAIT, BUT THERE ARE NO SURFACE REPORTS OF SEVERE
WIND AND THE FEW REPORTING STATIONS IN THE REGION INDICATE THAT THE
LAND INTERACTION IS SEVERELY WEAKENING THE STORM. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
VIGOROUS. THE MOST RECENT UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM TAIPEI REVEALS
THAT A STRONG RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH IS
STEERING THE STORM ON AN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD COURSE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 14W WILL RE-EMERGE IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS, WHERE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL COUPLE WITH THE GOOD OUTFLOW TO SUSTAIN A WEAKER
SYSTEM ACROSS THE STRAIT. THE ANTICYCLONE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
CHINA WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, WHERE IT WILL
MAKE LANDFALL FOR THE FINAL TIME NEAR TAU 42 AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND
BY TAU 72.//
NNNN

TXPQ25 KNES 290326
TCSWNP
A. 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 29/0232Z
C. 23.4N
D. 119.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...6-7 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG TEN SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET
AND PT ARE A 3.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NEWHARD

[Typhoon Hunter]

Eye passed over us in Dawu in the early hours - 12 hours earlier than CWB were forecasting so I slept through most of it (due to exhaustion). Now stuck here due to all roads out of town closed by police.

Luzon really took one for Taiwan - hope the people there can pick up the pieces quickly!

[euro6208]

after luzon and taiwan, nanmadol looks to ravage china- it's 3rd landfall in many days. god bless everyone in her path...

[KWT]

Looks like Taiwan hashad alot of rain, esp on the southern side. The only good thing is it hasn't stalled over the island as was feared.

[Chacor]

Down to TS.

WTPQ20 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 23.3N 119.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 24.4N 118.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 311200UTC 25.0N 117.9E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[supercane]

12Z advisory roundup:
JMA

JTWC:
WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 23.6N 119.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 119.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.2N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.6N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 24.9N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 25.1N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 119.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140
NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND
301500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING
NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140
NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291129Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
35 TO 65 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 24 AND WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND
SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST.//
NNNN

TXPQ25 KNES 290918
TCSWNP
A. 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 29/0832Z
C. 23.3N
D. 119.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...6 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG TEN SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET
AND PT ARE 3.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
29/0520Z 23.0N 119.7E AMSRE
...NEWHARD