ATL: JOSE - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

There was no data that supported td10 being upgraded beyond what it was, this has data that supported the upgrade

[HurrMark]

There was no data that supported td10 being upgraded beyond what it was, this has data that supported the upgrade

There were at least two occassions (and the NHC admitted them in their advisories) that it was likely close to or at tropical storm intensity.

[tolakram]

Latest Visible, I colored in tiny Bermuda

[tolakram]

Here's a smaller copy of the latest wind map from the NHC. They are expecting convection on the east side of Jose to provide most of the winds.


from: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

[Ptarmigan]

Jose loop satellite.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis-s.html

Notice a swirl of clouds and thunderstorms forming over it.

[AnnularCane]

Oh, so beautiful and delicate-looking!

I don't believe the nonsense that the NHC is fabricating storms or whatever. I'm sure they may have been a little off a couple of times, but I don't believe they're doing it deliberately.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
200 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

...JOSE MOVING FASTER...MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 65.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. JOSE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT JOSE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER. BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A 10-MINUTE WIND OF 35
MPH...55 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...75 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ABATE BY LATE THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL...RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

NNNN

[Meteorcane]

To be fair this does probably at least has tropical storm force winds.

[tolakram]

Jose passing Bermuda (live loop): http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Latest Visible

[Ptarmigan]

Jose passing Bermuda (live loop): http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Latest Visible
http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/7875/ztemp.jpg

A swirl and thunderstorm over it.

[supercane]

Latest Bermuda radar:

Earlier obs from Bermuda did have gusts above TS force:
TXKF 281755Z 17029G39KT 9999 -SHRA BKN023CB BKN080 28/24 Q1012 RMK CB SW MOV N /

[superfly]

I've seen leafblowers be more of a wind threat than this thing.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

...JOSE PASSING JUST WEST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 65.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. JOSE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 -24
HOURS...BUT JOSE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER. COMMISSIONERS POINT ON BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/H. ALSO...A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES
NORTH OF BERMUDA REPORTED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH DURING THE
PAST HOUR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
BERMUDA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ABATE BY LATE THIS EVENING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[Meteorcane]

I've seen leafblowers be more of a wind threat than this thing.

To be fair it has produced gusts over 60 mph in Bermuda, much more of a factor than say Don.

[tolakram]

Latest Visible, perhaps the last.

[senorpepr]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but Jose ranks as the 3rd earliest for the 10th named storm to form, surpassed only by Jose 2005 (Aug 22) and Jerry 1995 (Aug 23). More at viewtopic.php?f=29&t=111677

[supercane]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 282346
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
800 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

...JOSE PASSING NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA...STILL EXPECTED
TO BRING SQUALLS TO THE ISLAND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 65.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. JOSE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT JOSE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED ON
BERMUDA...SQUALLS PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[bexar]

whoa, where did this come from?

another weak TS for 2011? This season would most likely end up with the lowest ratio of storms reaching hurricane status in history.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...JOSE HAD THE CLASSIC APPEARANCE...ALBEIT
QUITE COMPACT...OF A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE IN RADAR DATA
FROM BERMUDA. SINCE THAT TIME JOSE HAS LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE SMALL CYCLONE STILL HAS
VERY TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS OF SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION
SPIRALING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.0/30 KT...THE
INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 35 KT GIVEN THE TIGHT SPIRAL
BAND APPEARANCE NOTED IN VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/18 KT. JOSE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD LEVEL OFF SOON
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AS A RESULT OF NO DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COMPACT CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED
NORTH-SOUTH ALONG 55W LONGITUDE. BY 24 HOURS...JOSE SHOULD BECOME A
SHALLOW REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER VERY COLD WATER...AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.

AFTER PASSING BRIEFLY THROUGH A REGION OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE...JOSE IS NOW MOVING INTO A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST
AND AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THESE
TWO CONVERGING STREAMS OF AIR AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...ALONG
WITH SSTS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 26C IN 12-18 HOURS...SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN
OF THIS COMPACT CYCLONE...WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY 36 HOURS
WHEN THE REMNANT LOW WILL BE OVER SUB-20C WATER TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 35.0N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 37.8N 64.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 41.3N 62.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[KWT]

Very weak system, usually the NHC doesn't bother with these sorts of systems, I suspect if it was a little further from Bermuda they may not have bothered and possibly just upgraded it post season.