WPAC: NORU - Tropical Storm (16W)

[supercane]

SE of Talas, W of Wake, NE of Guam
20110828.1601.mtsat2.x.ir1km_bw.98WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-190N-1550E.100pc.jpg

[supercane]

Long time no update. Now this popped up on JTWC's significant tropical weather advisory:
ABPW10 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/011500Z-020600ZSEP2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011352ZSEP2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 011200Z, TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WAS LOCATED NEAR
28.8N 135.4E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH OF KYOTO, JAPAN, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.0N 151.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 520 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT YET DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
NEAR A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011133Z METOP-A
IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
011135Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK LLCC WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER AND 20-25 KNOT CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS DISPLACED EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
RESULTING FROM OUTFLOW FROM TS 15W AND THE TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. AFTER 36-
48 HOURS VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS TS 15W TRACKS INTO THE EAST
SEA AND OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST 24-36 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

ASCAT image mentioned above showing small circulation:

Latest IR:

[supercane]

JMA now classifying this as a TD:
WWJP25 RJTD 020000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 020000.
WARNING VALID 030000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 988 HPA
AT 61N 143E SIBERIA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 21.3N 149.8E MINAMITORISIMA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 42N 143E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 44N 180E 42N 160E 38N 150E 37N
141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 21N 112E SW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 47N 136E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1034 HPA AT 43N 173E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 39N 132E TO 42N 137E 44N 141E 45N 147E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1112 TALAS (1112) 965 HPA AT 30.3N 134.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Latest Dvoraks:
TPPN10 PGTW 020024
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (NE OF GUAM)
B. 01/2332Z
C. 19.9N
D. 150.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CURRENTLY THE LLCC IS BROAD AND
HAS MULTIPLE VORTICES, HOWEVER, TURNING HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
PAST 24HRS. A CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .25 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

TXPQ27 KNES 012156
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)
B. 01/2101Z
C. 21.7N
D. 149.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING OF LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET =
1.0 AND PT = 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GUILLOT
Latest ASCAT:

[Chacor]

Have to say, that actually looks decent. Looks better than a T1.0, but hey, I'm not a met.

[euro6208]

well what do you know, another possible system, possibly our 16th storm? btw euro develops this further tracking to the north and that's about it...

T1.0/1.5 98W -- West Pacific

funny how this is already at 1.0 and TD 13L in the atl also with 1.0...

this is very organized , in my opinion, this is at least a tropical cyclone...

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZSEP2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020152ZSEP2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 020000Z, TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WAS LOCATED NEAR
30.3N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 020300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.0N
151.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A
020001Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATES WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING EAST
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE REMAINING QUADRANTS. A 020001Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
STRONGER, MORE DEFINED LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, VWS HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY (ABOUT 10
KNOTS) BUT CONTINUES TO HAMPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DYNAMIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 20.3N 148.2E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 031500UTC 23.3N 148.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 20.3N 148.2E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 23.4N 148.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

WTPN21 PGTW 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.5N 149.1E TO 26.2N 148.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
020930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N
149.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.2N
149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A
020652Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT STRENGTHENING LLCC. A 020001Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A STRONGER, MORE DEFINED LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, VWS HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY
(ABOUT 10 KNOTS) AND THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED. THE DYNAMIC
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
031000Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

Current sat fixes:
KNES T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS
PGTW T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
RJTD T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 20.2N 148.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 25.1N 148.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[supercane]

Still a TD at 06Z:
WTPQ20 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 20.5N 149.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 25.8N 148.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

JTWC update; they will either have to start writing advisories at 09Z (possible given T numbers of 2.0) or reissue TCFA soon:
ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZSEP2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030152ZSEP2011//
REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020951ZSEP2011//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 030000Z, TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WAS LOCATED NEAR
33.6N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN,
AND HAD TRACKED JUST WEST OF NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS AND MOVED INLAND
OVER EASTERN SHIKOKU. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 030300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.2N
149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC)
WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A 020652Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT STRENGTHENING LLCC. A 020001Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A STRONGER, MORE DEFINED LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, VWS HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY (ABOUT 10 KNOTS)
AND THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED. THE DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21
PGTW 021000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

Dvorak intensity estimates 2.0 from US agencies (JTWC and SAB) and 1.5 from JMA (taken from latest BUFR message, thanks Chacor for data link):
TPPN10 PGTW 030623
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (NE OF GUAM)
B. 03/0532Z
C. 20.6N
D. 149.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .35 YIELDS A
2.0DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BELMONDO

TXPQ27 KNES 030323
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)
B. 03/0301Z
C. 20.1N
D. 149.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES 3.5/10 RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK

[supercane]

Update: As expected from the above Dvorak classifications, it appears from NRL updating this from 98W to 16W on its site that JTWC will start issuing advisories on this at 09Z. (I know, JMA is official and is already issuing advisories, but at least this way we get a 5-day forecast out.)

[RobWESTPACWX]

As long as it stays out to sea and away from everyone I'm a happy fella, given the current look out on this it looks like it will go NNW but stay away from Honshu. Just my thoughts though, waiting on the long range forecast

[supercane]

First JTWC advisory out, largely northward track staying offshore:

WTPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020951Z SEP 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 149.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 149.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.3N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.0N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 25.7N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.4N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 30.6N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 33.9N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 37.0N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 149.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INCREASED DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST ARE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS LIMITING OUTFLOW ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. TD 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES THE STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TD 16W SHOULD STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER
WARM WATER AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND DEPICTS UNCERTAINTY AS
THE SYSTEM IS STILL CONSOLIDATING. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A SLOWER
TRACK TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
020951Z SEP 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
021000).//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Away from the coast, hurrah I love fish storms!

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 150.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 150.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.2N 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.6N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 30.1N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 32.3N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 35.6N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 39.0N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 42.9N 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 150.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED
WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. A
031053Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC WITH UP TO 40-KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR AND
THE ASCAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
ASCAT PASS. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST ARE
FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS LIMITING
OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IN TRANSLATION SPEED AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE,
WHICH HAS RECENTLY STRENGTHENED. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 16W IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATER AND
MAINTAINS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES,
AND LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY NORTHWARD, DIRECTLY INTO A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A SLOWER TRACK AND IS MORE
IN AGREEMENT WITH JGSM.//
NNNN

40 knot tropical storm and forecast to strengthen to typhoon strength.

Next Name: Noru submitted by korea meaning- A roe deer; a kind animal.
A type of small deer living in the wild forest.

T3.0/3.0

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 / 995.1mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.3 2.4




TS 16W is so beautiful this early morning...

[supercane]

Earlier ASCAT shows much improved organization:



Prognostic reasoning:
WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED
WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. A
031053Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC WITH UP TO 40-KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR AND
THE ASCAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
ASCAT PASS. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST ARE
FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS LIMITING
OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IN TRANSLATION SPEED AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE,
WHICH HAS RECENTLY STRENGTHENED. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 16W IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATER AND
MAINTAINS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES,
AND LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY NORTHWARD, DIRECTLY INTO A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A SLOWER TRACK AND IS MORE
IN AGREEMENT WITH JGSM.//
NNNN

Latest Dvorak estimate from JMA still has this below the typical 2.5 threshold for upgrade to TS, but we shall see.

[supercane]

Correction to above statement, JMA upgrade threshold normally 2.0, not 2.5 as with US agencies. As expected, given current JMA CI of 1.5, system still classified as a TD:

WTPQ20 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 24.6N 150.2E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 31.2N 148.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Quite a disparity with Dvorak estimates on this system, with JTWC at 3.0/45kt at 18Z:
TPPN10 PGTW 031818 COR
A. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NE OF GUAM)
B. 03/1732Z
C. 24.9N
D. 151.4E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN. .90
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDED A 3.5 DT. PT AGREES. MET INDICATES
3.0. DBO MET DUE TO CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 24.1N 151.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 151.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 28.2N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 31.7N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 34.8N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 37.4N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 42.2N 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 47.6N 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 53.4N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 151.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM E OF IWO TO,
JAPAN, HAS MAINTAINED A FAST STORM MOTION AND TRACKED NORTH-NORTH-
EASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
FURTHER CONSOLIDATED WITH INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 031608Z 36 HZ AQUA
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE EAST OF A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) AND TO THE WEST OF AN
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS ENHANCING NORTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW, ALBEIT IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE TUTT IS
EXERTING PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND IS SUPPRESSING
OUTFLOW. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS OVER WARM WATER AND MAINTAINS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. AFTER
TAU 36, IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE.
HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48, A HIGH AMPLITUDE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST WILL BUILD AND STEER THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. AFTER TAU 72, TS 16W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ET) AND WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL.
THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ET BY END OF FORECAST. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 BEFORE IT FANS OUT TO
APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES WITH EGRR TO THE LEFT OF AND JGSM AND WBAR
TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

To be honest I'm not a big fan of this storm, its forward movement is 21kts it is moving in to cooler SST's and it is already elongated and dis-organized. I don't feel it will meet TY as the current Forecast suggest, my thoughts though.