EPAC: EIGHT-E - Remnants

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supercane
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#21 Postby supercane » Wed Aug 31, 2011 3:28 pm

Didn't see the intermediate advisory posted saying this has made landfall:
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 311753
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082011
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 102.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...50 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7
MPH...11 KM/H. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...50
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED NOW THAT
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS INLAND...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS...ARE STILL
POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

RAIN...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...
AND COLIMA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
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#22 Postby supercane » Wed Aug 31, 2011 3:42 pm

No Hilary from this:
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 312040
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082011
200 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2011

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED INLAND AROUND 1600 UTC ABOUT 30
NMI WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. SINCE THAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME ELONGATED...AND THERE IS SOME
CHANCE THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE BECOMING DETACHED. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING AND THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.
WEAKENING APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN NOW THAT MOST OF THE CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
FURTHER DISRUPTED AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION...340/06...IS A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION LIKELY BEING
STEERED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST.

LINGERING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...IN
COMBINATION WITH THE STEEP TERRAIN OF THIS REGION...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO STILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 18.5N 102.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 01/0600Z 19.2N 103.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2011 9:44 pm

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082011
800 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION WEAKENS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 103.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED. AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER
OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED INLAND IN SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...35 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO...MICHOACAN AND
COLIMA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 31, 2011 10:28 pm

Oh well. It failed to intensify.
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