EPAC: EIGHT-E - Remnants

[Florida1118]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep932011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108292231
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 93, 2011, DB, O, 2011082918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP932011
EP, 93, 2011082918, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1022W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Florida1118]

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. EXCEPT FOR THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM TO LAND...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 TO
10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO...
MICHOACAN...AND COLIMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 300101
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0101 UTC TUE AUG 30 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932011) 20110830 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110830  0000   110830  1200   110831  0000   110831  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.9N 102.0W   16.3N 102.2W   16.7N 102.6W   17.2N 103.2W
BAMD    15.9N 102.0W   16.3N 102.4W   16.9N 103.0W   17.6N 103.8W
BAMM    15.9N 102.0W   16.3N 102.4W   16.9N 102.8W   17.4N 103.6W
LBAR    15.9N 102.0W   16.2N 103.0W   16.8N 103.9W   17.5N 105.2W
SHIP        20KTS          27KTS          36KTS          46KTS
DSHP        20KTS          27KTS          36KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110901  0000   110902  0000   110903  0000   110904  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.7N 104.0W   19.3N 106.2W   21.0N 107.4W   22.0N 108.3W
BAMD    18.4N 105.1W   20.6N 108.3W   22.6N 111.3W   24.4N 113.7W
BAMM    18.1N 104.8W   20.0N 107.7W   22.1N 110.2W   23.7N 112.0W
LBAR    18.3N 106.7W   20.8N 110.6W   23.9N 113.5W   28.5N 114.4W
SHIP        57KTS          59KTS          57KTS          49KTS
DSHP        57KTS          59KTS          57KTS          49KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.9N LONCUR = 102.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  15.5N LONM12 = 100.9W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  15.1N LONM24 =  99.6W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Extratropical94]

The next name on the list would be HILARY.

[Kingarabian]

Models do develop this and take it close to Baja California.

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 301146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION IN RECENT HOURS. EXCEPT FOR THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS DISTURBANCE TO LAND...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO...MICHOACAN... AND COLIMA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATES THAT THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO...
MICHOACAN...AND COLIMA THROUGH THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST HUGGING THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...
AND COLIMA THROUGH THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Extratropical94]

Up to 80%

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A
LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO
MEXICO. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
HUGGING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO...
MICHOACAN...AND COLIMA THROUGH THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

[clfenwi]

Should see a tropical depression (at least) at 11 AM, given SAB's intensity estimate.

31/1145 UTC 17.5N 102.7W T2.5/2.5 93E

[Chacor]

No renumber file yet.

[Chacor]

Up to 90% and we have a special outlook.

ABPZ20 KNHC 311338
TWOEP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
640 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE RAINFALL HAZARD IN SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO

UPDATED...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...ABOUT 70
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING...AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...AND COLIMA THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES COULD AFFECT THESE STATES...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[CrazyC83]

TD8E, if not Hilary, at 8 probably based on that wording, but it remains to be seen for sure.

[Chacor]

RENUMBER file suggests a 30-kt TD, despite the earlier T2.5.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep932011_ep082011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108311347
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 08, 2011, DB, O, 2011082918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP082011
EP, 08, 2011082906, , BEST, 0, 152N, 991W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 08, 2011082912, , BEST, 0, 153N, 995W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 08, 2011082918, , BEST, 0, 154N, 999W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 08, 2011083000, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1003W, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 08, 2011083006, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1006W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 120, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 08, 2011083012, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1009W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 120, 60, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 08, 2011083018, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1012W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 120, 70, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 08, 2011083100, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1017W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 120, 70, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 08, 2011083106, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1021W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 120, 50, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 08, 2011083112, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1025W, 30, 1002, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 105, 50, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[Yellow Evan]

Will we have a TD at 8?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082011
800 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 102.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE
WATCH AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE DEPRESSION
REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
ONSHORE...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
LATE THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAIN...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO... MICHOACAN...
AND COLIMA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

Will we have a TD at 8?

Yes, I answered my own question

[Chacor]

Very interesting track.

[Chacor]

WTPZ43 KNHC 311452
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082011
800 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2011

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT T2.5...SUGGESTING THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE PROXIMITY OF THE
DEPRESSION TO LAND SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST IN THE WATCH AREA
TODAY. ONCE INLAND...THE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR.

THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY MAKES THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE...320/06...SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION AND
ULTIMATELY THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY COURSE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO MOVE INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATERS. HOWEVER...
THE LIKELIHOOD OF REGENERATION SEEMS SLIM SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE
OVER RUGGED TERRAIN LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
TO BE SEVERELY DISRUPTED. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS
COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A
PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEFORE THE DEPRESSION
MOVES INLAND. THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD...IN COMBINATION WITH THE
STEEP TERRAIN OF THIS REGION...CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 18.0N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 18.7N 103.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 19.7N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 20.7N 105.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1200Z 21.5N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

Very interesting track.

Would be even more intresting if it maintained its intensity over land. I could get some rain from ex-8E.