WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Depression (17W)

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#41 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Sep 07, 2011 10:16 pm

OOOO, well then I pronounced it wrong in my last video. A well, I tried to refrain from saying as much as possible.

So JTWC most recent warning keeps intensity maxed out at 50kts, JMA still holds it at 35kts. Given how exposed it is right now I think the lower number is more logical.
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#42 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Sep 07, 2011 11:08 pm

This storm exceptionally exposed, Looking at IR imagry you may get a false sense of the center or circulation, (I did at first, until looking if vis imagery.)
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#43 Postby rdhdstpchld » Wed Sep 07, 2011 11:32 pm

RobWESTPACWX wrote:OOOO, well then I pronounced it wrong in my last video. A well, I tried to refrain from saying as much as possible.

So JTWC most recent warning keeps intensity maxed out at 50kts, JMA still holds it at 35kts. Given how exposed it is right now I think the lower number is more logical.



I noticed that -- but it's ok - the rest of the information more than makes up for it - the panic-mongers are starting already around here...
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Re: WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Storm (17W)

#44 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Sep 08, 2011 12:06 am

Latest ASCAT Imagery

Image
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#45 Postby Chacor » Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:35 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1114 KULAP (1114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 25.5N 133.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 090600UTC 28.7N 130.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 100600UTC 30.7N 127.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 110600UTC 32.3N 125.3E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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Re: WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Storm (17W)

#46 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:49 am

Well JTWC has now backed off on intensity and is more alignment with JMA.

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#47 Postby Chacor » Thu Sep 08, 2011 4:14 am

Kulap is badly sheared right now. SAB Dvorak is down to T1.0/1.5.
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Re: WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Storm (17W)

#48 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Sep 08, 2011 7:11 am

Instances like this make me love Euro medium-term model runs even more. Haha. I thought this is gonna be a typhoon but seems like the euro solution was right with the harsh environment along Kulap's path, hindering further development. Well euro's been doing a nice job for some years now even in ATL, like a boss... :lol:
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#49 Postby Chacor » Thu Sep 08, 2011 7:27 am

JTWC satellite bulletin indicates a greater-than-climatological weakening rate of W1.5/24H:

TPPN11 PGTW 081209

A. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP)

B. 08/1132Z

C. 26.5N

D. 132.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/2.5/W1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE SHEAR OF 170NM
TO SE YIELDS A 1.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/1121Z 23.1N 135.5E SSMS


BELMONDO
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#50 Postby Chacor » Thu Sep 08, 2011 8:18 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1114 KULAP (1114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 26.3N 132.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 29.7N 129.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 101200UTC 31.2N 127.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 111200UTC 32.7N 126.2E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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#51 Postby Chacor » Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:59 am

Barely hanging on
WTPQ20 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1114 KULAP (1114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 29.2N 130.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 50NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 31.9N 127.4E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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Re: WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Storm (17W)

#52 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:19 pm

well that was quick! :lol:
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#53 Postby Chacor » Sat Sep 10, 2011 12:16 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1114 KULAP (1114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 31N 127E
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1010HPA =
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#54 Postby Chacor » Sat Sep 10, 2011 12:15 pm

JMA 12z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1014 HPA AT 32N 127E NW 10 KT.
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#55 Postby Chacor » Sun Sep 11, 2011 4:06 am

Dropped by JMA.
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