ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurrMark]

Rarely do hurricanes move this quickly this far south...usually they are well into the 40s latitude before they go this fast (especially this time of year). The only example I could think of would be the 1938 Long Island Express.

[HurrMark]

What's the record for the furthest north that a storm first attained hurricane strength? Maria didn't get there until 35N, don't think I've seen that since I've been paying attention to storms.

This actually isn't that unusual...there have been many cases of hurricanes forming further north. I think the record was 46N for an unnamed hurricane in 1971.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Up to 70kts.

AL, 14, 2011091600, , BEST, 0, 368N, 649W, 70, 984, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[Caribwxgirl]

Maria the little storm that could. Lol

[brunota2003]

So...on the eastern side of the hurricane (SE mainly), winds are as strong as 80 mph...but on the western side (NW mainly), winds would only be 40 mph because forward motion of 40 mph decreases the max speeds, correct?

[CrazyC83]

So...on the eastern side of the hurricane (SE mainly), winds are as strong as 80 mph...but on the western side (NW mainly), winds would only be 40 mph because forward motion of 40 mph decreases the max speeds, correct?

That is correct.

What are the chances that Maria could become a major hurricane?

[cycloneye]

What are the chances that Maria could become a major hurricane?

I think is too late for that. If Maria would do this intensifying period earlier like around 25N ,it would have reach it.

[Maritimer71]

WWCN31 CWHX 152359
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 8:59 PM ADT THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH.

     MARIA REACHED HURRICANE STATUS EARLIER THIS EVENING.  THE STORM
     WILL INTERACT WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH AND CAUSE HIGH
     WIND AND RAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

     A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT A HURRICANE OR AN INCIPIENT
     HURRICANE CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
     AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
HURRICANE MARIA WILL APPROACH THE AVALON PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE REMNANTS OF MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS NORTH THAT WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH NORTH OF MARIA UNITE
OVER THE REGION.

HOWEVER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AVALON PENINSULA WINDS NEAR
100 KM/H ARE EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE TO 120 KM/H
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THESE WIND GUSTS CAN TOPPLE TREES AND BREAK LARGE
BRANCHES, RUSULTING IN DOWNED UTILITY LINES AND POWER INTERRUPTIONS.
DAMAGE TO SIGNAGE AND BUILDING CLADDING/ROOFING MATERIAL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WHEN WINDS GUST TO 120 KM/H OR MORE.

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 60
TO 90 MILLIMETRES ARE EXPECTED.  LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD
TO LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER/HATT
_______________________________________________

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011

...MARIA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO JONES HARBOUR.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AVALON
PENINSULA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 43 MPH...69 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF MARIA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MARIA MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA.

STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA...ALTHOUGH TOPS HAVE WARMED A
LITTLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO...A 30 NMI DIAMETER
EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT IN EARLIER MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB...THE EYE FEATURE NOTED
IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED OF MARIA.

MARIA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 035/37
KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM NOVA SCOTIA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MARIA PASSING OVER OR
NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 18
HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS NOW IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS SPEED OF
THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS.

SINCE MARIA IS NOW RAPIDLY APPROACHING A SHARP SST GRADIENT THAT
LIES ALONG 40N LATITUDE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE AVALON PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
MAY WANE AFTER MARIA MOVES OVER COLDER WATER NORTH OF 40N...THE
FASTER FORWARD SPEED OF 45-50 KT SHOULD HELP TO OFFSET ANY LOSS OF
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LGEM INTENSITY MODEL.

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND FORECAST POINTS WERE COORDINATED WITH
THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER AND THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 38.5N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 43.3N 58.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 50.7N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/1200Z 58.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

...MARIA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

[WeatherGuesser]

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H

Crikey matey, I don't drive that fast sometimes.

[Maritimer71]

WOCN31 CWHX 160845
INTERMEDIATE TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 5:50 AM NDT FRIDAY
16 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
INTERMEDIATE TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= LABRADOR
=NEW= NEWFOUNDLAND
=NEW= NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR HURRICANE MARIA.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:30 AM NDT.

HURRICANE MARIA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND - MERGING WITH LARGE
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR ON SATURDAY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 6:30 AM NDT.

LOCATION: ABOUT 41.7 NORTH 60.3 WEST.

ABOUT 200 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF SABLE ISLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 130 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST AT 75 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 MB.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN AVALON AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN AVALON, AND THE BURIN
AND BONA VISTA PENINSULAS. STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN
IN A FEW HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST MARINE AREAS.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/HATT

[Maritimer71]

FXCN31 CWHX 160600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 AM NDT
FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 AM NDT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.30 AM NDT , HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
40.0 N AND LONGITUDE 62.0 W , ABOUT 250 NAUTICAL MILES OR 470
KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS ( 130 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
982 MB. MARIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 KNOTS ( 74 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
SEP 16 3.30 AM 40.0N 62.0W 980 70 130
SEP 16 9.30 AM 43.3N 58.6W 983 70 130
SEP 16 3.30 PM 47.2N 54.3W 987 65 120
SEP 16 9.30 PM 51.1N 50.3W 986 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17 3.30 AM 55.1N 47.1W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS STILL A HURRICANE AND HAS
GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MARIA IS ACCELERATING AS
PREDICTED TO THE NORTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTRE HAS BEEN PERSISTANT AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY UP TO
ECLIPSE TIME.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR PERIOD. 00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND TOWARD A WESTERN ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK. THE NEW TRACK
BRINGS THE A MARGINAL CAT-1 HURRICANE NEAR THE ISTHMUS TO
THE AVALON PENINSULA IN 12 HOURS. WHEN MARIA MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND INTO THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT IT WILL TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE INCREASED FORWARD SPEED OF MARIA THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT
BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN IT SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE IT REACHES THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SPRAWLING WIND FIELD AROUND THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE MERGING OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ENVELOPE WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.
IN ANY EVENT MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WIND EVENT FOR MUCH OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
THE GEM REG STILL FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A HINT THAT 100MM IS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SHIFT IN FORECAST TRACK.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
16/06Z 210 240 120 75 100 130 40 40 40 50 25 0
16/12Z 220 240 120 80 130 130 40 50 40 50 20 0
16/18Z 210 240 120 90 100 120 40 50 20 40 20 0
17/00Z 250 280 180 150 120 100 40 50 0 0 0 0
17/06Z 300 300 300 200 100 100 40 50 0 0 0 0

END/HATT

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2011

AN 0540 UTC AMSR-E OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE EYEWALL OF MARIA IS
OPEN IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THAT THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
IS THINNING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS 72 KT...AND A
BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDS AN
INTENSITY BETWEEN 65 AND 72 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
MAINTAINED AT 70 KT.

MARIA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
035/39 KT. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE UP UNTIL LANDFALL IN NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND ONLY DEVIATES SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

MARIA IS CROSSING THE STRONG SST GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
GULF STREAM AND IS OVER WATERS OF ABOUT 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE
COLDER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING...BUT SINCE THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING SO FAST...IT PROBABLY WILL NOT WEAKEN MUCH BEFORE REACHING
NEWFOUNDLAND. A COLD FRONT IS FAST-APPROACHING MARIA FROM THE
WEST...AND GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE
ALMOST FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER 18
UTC TODAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST STILL SHOWS MARIA AS A
65-KT HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND...BUT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION AT THAT TIME.
AS SHOWN BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER PASSING NEWFOUNDLAND AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE BY 36 HOURS.

THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII DURING THE POST-TROPICAL STAGE WERE
COORDINATED WITH THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. THE 12-FT SEAS
RADII HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE SINCE MARIA IS
OUTRUNNING THE HIGHEST WAVES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 41.7N 60.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 46.8N 54.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 55.0N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2011

...WINDS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.6N 58.2W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 45 MPH...72 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO ARNOLDS COVE AND FROM BRIGUS
SOUTH TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 42.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH...72 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ADDITIONAL
ACCELERATION BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
MARIA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MARIA MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY. SOME
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY TONIGHT...AND MARIA COULD BE ABSORBED
WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH MARIA.

STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[maxx9512]

some webcams from Newfoudland:

http://www.nlcams.com/

[brunota2003]

Buoys:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/NovaScotia.shtml

Lowest pressure I've seen so far is 29.10 inches, or 985 millibars, with 25 knots of wind. Strongest winds, also from the same buoy, have been 35 knots sustained. Buoy 44141.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

It looks like Maria is turning extratropical.

AL, 14, 2011091612, , BEST, 0, 428N, 582W, 65, 983, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[Maritimer71]

WOCN31 CWHX 161145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:55 AM ADT FRIDAY
16 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
LABRADOR
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR HURRICANE MARIA.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12:30 PM NDT.
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT FULL STATEMENT ISSUED BY 3:30 PM NDT.

HURRICANE MARIA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND - MERGING WITH LARGE
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR ON SATURDAY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9:30 AM NDT.

LOCATION: ABOUT 43.3 NORTH 58.6 WEST.

ABOUT 130 KILOMETRES SOUTHEAST OF SABLE ISLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 130 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST AT 85 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

HURRICANE MARIA EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH
TO ITS NORTH THAT WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER
LABRADOR.

OUR LATEST TRACK (ON THE http://WWW.HURRICANES.CA WEBSITE) SHOWS MARIA
PASSING OVER THE ISTHMUS OF THE AVALON PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS FORECAST OVER LAND. NOTE THAT THERE WILL BE
FAR-REACHING IMPACTS OF THE COMBINED WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL AWAY FROM
THE TRACK.

A. WIND.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH NORTH OF MARIA UNITE.
THE HIGHEST WINDS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
AVALON PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AVALON PENINSULA AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS POSTED FOR THE NORTHERN AVALON, THE BURIN, AND BONAVISTA
PENINSULAS.

WIND GUSTS OF 100 KM/H ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS (120 KM/H OR HIGHER) ARE EXPECTED
IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

THESE WIND GUSTS CAN TOPPLE TREES AND BREAK LARGE BRANCHES, RESULTING
IN DOWNED UTILITY LINES AND POWER INTERUPTIONS. DAMAGE TO SIGNAGE
AND BUILDING CLADDING/ROOFING MATERIAL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHEN WINDS
GUST TO 120 KM/H OR MORE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COMBINED LOW WILL DELIVER HIGH WINDS OVER A BROAD
AREA COVERING NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE HAS POSTED WIND
AND RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND COASTAL
LABRADOR. COASTAL LABRADOR IN PARTICULAR WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS TODAY
AND SATURDAY.

B. RAINFALL.

RAIN OVER NEWFOUNDLAND IN ADVANCE OF MARIA AND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TODAY THEN END TONIGHT AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS OVER SOUTHERN, EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 60 TO 90 MILLIMETRES IS EXPECTED.

NOTE THAT WHENEVER MOISTURE FROM A HURRICANE FEEDS INTO A
FRONT/TROUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 15 TO 25 MILLIMETRES
PER HOUR WOULD OCCUR. SUCH RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH-TYPE FLOODING
IN DITCHES AND SMALL RIVERS ESPECIALLY WHERE TERRAIN IS STEEP.
LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY, RIVER WATER
LEVELS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. KEEP IN
MIND HOWEVER THAT SMALLER RIVERS/CREEKS WILL RESPOND MORE QUICKLY TO
HEAVY RAIN THAN LARGER ONES.

RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR RAMEA CONNAIGRE EAST TO THE AVALON PENINSULA
THEN NORTH TO BONAVISTA AND TERRA NOVA PARK. THESE WILL BE EXPANDED
WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

MOST COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND CAN EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TODAY
AS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS INTERACT. WAVE AND SURGE EFFECTS DIRECTLY
FROM MARIA WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA COASTLINES
THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE OF NEAR ONE METRE IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AVALON
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOCAL HIGH TIDE IN THAT AREA NEAR NOON
TIDES IN THAT AREA WILL BE FALLING AT THE TIME OF MARIA'S
LANDFALL WITH LOW TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7
METRES ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF MARIA'S TRACK AND WILL
GIVE HEAVY POUNDING SURF TO ONSHORE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN AVALON
PENINSULA.

LARGE WAVES AND STORM SURGE ARE LIKELY OVER WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE STRAIT OF BELLE ISLE.
A LESSER RISK EXISTS FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

THIS LOW WILL GENERATE VERY HIGH WAVES OFFSHORE OF LABRADOR ON
SATURDAY WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS COULD EXCEED 10 METRES.

ONE FACTOR THAT MAY HELP EASE IMPACTS SOMEWHAT IS A RUN OF LOWER THAN
AVERAGE TIDES.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN MARINE AREAS FOR TODAY AS A RESULT OF MARIA.

GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE OVER MOST OF
ATLANTIC CANADIAN WATERS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF THE
NON-TROPICAL LOW.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END

[Maritimer71]

FXCN31 CWHX 161200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 AM NDT
FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 PM NDT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.30 AM NDT, HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
43.3 N AND LONGITUDE 58.6 W, ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES OR 130 KM
EAST SOUTHEAST OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS ( 130 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 979
MB. MARIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 46 KNOTS ( 85 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 16 9.30 AM 43.3N 58.6W 979 70 130
SEP 16 3.30 PM 46.8N 54.5W 980 65 120
SEP 16 9.30 PM 50.7N 51.0W 982 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17 3.30 AM 55.4N 46.8W 984 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17 9.30 AM 59.4N 43.5W 986 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS STILL A HURRICANE AND HAS
MAINTAINED A DISTINCT CENTRAL CORE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. WITH THE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT
MARIA'S CIRCULATION IS BECOMING TILTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, MAKING
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SLIGHTLY MORE
DIFFICULT. SINCE THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE MARIA STILL SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE DESPITE BEGINNING ITS
TREK OVER COOLER WATER.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTHEAST TRACK DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE TRACK BRINGS THE A MARGINAL CAT-1
HURRICANE NEAR THE ISTHMUS TO THE AVALON PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.
MARIA IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF
STREAM AS WELL AS A HIGHLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. IT WILL TRANSITION
INTO A POST-TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS SHORTLY AFTER
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
INCREASED FORWARD SPEED OF MARIA THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
TO WEAKEN IT SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SPRAWLING WIND FIELD AROUND THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE MERGING OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ENVELOPE WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.
IN ANY EVENT DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE INDICATING A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WIND EVENT FOR MUCH OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
THE GEM REG STILL FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A HINT THAT 100MM IS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SHIFT IN FORECAST TRACK.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
16/12Z 220 240 120 80 130 100 40 50 40 50 10 0
16/18Z 240 240 150 120 100 120 40 50 30 40 10 0
17/00Z 250 280 180 150 120 120 40 50 0 0 0 0
17/06Z 300 300 300 200 100 100 40 50 0 0 0 0
17/12Z 350 320 420 250 100 100 40 50 0 0 0 0

END/HATT/BORGEL