ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Maritimer71
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#2361 Postby Maritimer71 » Fri Sep 16, 2011 8:18 am

WTCN31 CWHX 160549
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:49 AM NDT FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= BONAVISTA PENINSULA
=NEW= BURIN PENINSULA
ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
AVALON PENINSULA NORTH.

HURRICANE MARIA IS RACING TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS GUSTING TO 100 KM/H ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO 120 KM/H
OVER THE SOUTHERN AVALON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR:
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH.

HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 120 KM/H EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
AVALON THIS AFTERNOON.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT ONE OR BOTH OF THE FOLLOWING
DANGEROUS EFFECTS OF A HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS WITHIN 24 HOURS:.

(A) SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WINDS OF 118 KM/H OR
MORE;.

(B) DANGEROUSLY HIGH WATER OR A COMBINATION OF DANGEROUSLY HIGH
WATER AND EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH WAVES, EVEN THOUGH WINDS EXPECTED
MAY BE LESS THAN HURRICANE FORCE.

BY NATURE A HURRICANE ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ENDED FOR:
AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH.

UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNING.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
HURRICANE MARIA IS RACING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE NEAR THE ISTHMUS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE BURIN AND BONAVISTA PENINSULAS.

WIND GUSTS FROM 100 TO 120 KM/H WILL LIKELY TOPPLE TREES AND BREAK
LARGE BRANCHES, RESULTING IN DOWNED UTILITY LINES AND POWER
INTERUPTIONS. DAMAGE TO SIGNAGE AND BUILDING CLADDING/ROOFING
MATERIAL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHEN WINDS GUST TO 120 KM/H OR MORE.

HURRICANE MARIA WILL MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS NORTH THAT
WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR.
STRONG WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND AND LABRADOR AS A RESULT.

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER MUCH OF NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 60
TO 90 MILLIMETRES ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD
TO LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/HATT
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#2362 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Sep 16, 2011 8:28 am

According to buoy obs, the center of the LLC was near 43N and 59W (plus or minus, not a perfect fix, just a guess) at 8 am EDT...that would put the LLC on the far SW side of the convection...so the system is definitely tilted.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2363 Postby HurrMark » Fri Sep 16, 2011 8:40 am

Hmmm...we have a landfalling hurricane and nary a post to be found. Rather interesting...
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#2364 Postby Maritimer71 » Fri Sep 16, 2011 8:57 am

WTCN31 CWHX 161349
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 10:49 AM ADT FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
BONAVISTA PENINSULA
BURIN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE MARIA IS RACING TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS GUSTING TO 100 KM/H ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO 120 KM/H
OVER PARTS OF THE THE SOUTHERN AVALON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR:
AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH.

HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 120 KM/H EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN AVALON THIS AFTERNOON.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT ONE OR BOTH OF THE FOLLOWING
DANGEROUS EFFECTS OF A HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS WITHIN 24 HOURS:.

(A) SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WINDS OF 118 KM/H OR
MORE;.

(B) DANGEROUSLY HIGH WATER OR A COMBINATION OF DANGEROUSLY HIGH
WATER AND EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH WAVES, EVEN THOUGH WINDS EXPECTED
MAY BE LESS THAN HURRICANE FORCE.

BY NATURE A HURRICANE ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
HURRICANE MARIA IS RACING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE NEAR THE ISTHMUS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE BURIN AND BONAVISTA PENINSULAS.

WIND GUSTS FROM 100 TO 120 KM/H WILL LIKELY TOPPLE TREES OR
BREAK LARGE BRANCHES, RESULTING IN DOWNED UTILITY LINES AND POWER
INTERUPTIONS. DAMAGE TO SIGNAGE AND BUILDING CLADDING/ROOFING
MATERIAL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHEN WINDS GUST TO 120 KM/H OR MORE.

HURRICANE MARIA WILL MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS NORTH THAT
WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR.
STRONG WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND AND LABRADOR AS A RESULT.

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER MUCH OF NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 60
TO 90 MILLIMETRES ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD
TO LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/HATT
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Re:

#2365 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 16, 2011 9:12 am

brunota2003 wrote:Buoys:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/NovaScotia.shtml

Lowest pressure I've seen so far is 29.10 inches, or 985 millibars, with 25 knots of wind. Strongest winds, also from the same buoy, have been 35 knots sustained. Buoy 44141.


That suggests a pressure around 983mb. This should be nowhere near as bad as Igor I would think (its pressure was 950mb and it was much, much larger).
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#2366 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 16, 2011 9:19 am

Do we have any members in Newfoundland?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories

#2367 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2011 9:35 am

HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2011

MARIA IS BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION HAS ROTATED NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH THE CLOUD
TOPS WARMING. DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 65 KT. CANADIAN BUOY REPORTED
985.4 MB AT 12Z WITH ABOUT 25 KT OF WIND...WHICH IS THE SOURCE OF
THE 983 MB INITIAL PRESSURE. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY...AND
WEAKEN THEREAFTER DUE TO COLD WATER. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE SLOWER
THAN USUAL DUE TO THE EXTREME FORWARD MOTION...WHICH IS REFLECTED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

MARIA IS MOVING RATHER RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 45 KT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN EVEN FASTER FORWARD SPEED AROUND 50
KT ACROSS THE AVALON PENINSULA TODAY...WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING
ABSORBED BY 24 HOURS WITHIN A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ONLY
OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND COULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE IF THE CENTER MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 44.6N 56.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 50.5N 49.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories

#2368 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 16, 2011 10:25 am

Hurricane MARIA Forecast/Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT24 KNHC 161431
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO ARNOLDS COVE AND FROM BRIGUS
SOUTH TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.6N 56.3W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 45 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 240SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 300SE 420SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.6N 56.3W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 58.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 50.5N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...250NE 300SE 270SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.6N 56.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2369 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 16, 2011 10:28 am

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ONLY
OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND COULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE IF THE CENTER MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.


Excerpt from the NHC 11am disc...........I'm interested in rainfall potential from Maria...
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Re: Re:

#2370 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 16, 2011 10:30 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Buoys:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/NovaScotia.shtml

Lowest pressure I've seen so far is 29.10 inches, or 985 millibars, with 25 knots of wind. Strongest winds, also from the same buoy, have been 35 knots sustained. Buoy 44141.


That suggests a pressure around 983mb. This should be nowhere near as bad as Igor I would think (its pressure was 950mb and it was much, much larger).



983 millibars..is that Hurricane strength?...


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Re: Re:

#2371 Postby Macrocane » Fri Sep 16, 2011 10:40 am

underthwx wrote:

983 millibars..is that Hurricane strength?...



Well the intensity of a hurricane is measured by its winds not the pressure, but yes hurricanes tend to have pressures below 990 mb so it's normal for Maria to have that pressure.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2372 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 16, 2011 10:43 am

:uarrow: I find that to be amazing..given it is over cooler waters..I hope the residents affected by Maria fare well...I'm interested in the current conditions..wind speed..rainfall..etc...over the inland area affected..
Last edited by underthwx on Fri Sep 16, 2011 10:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2373 Postby Macrocane » Fri Sep 16, 2011 10:45 am

Yeah, this has been a weird season it seems that the best areas for intensification have been farther north than usual.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2374 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 16, 2011 10:59 am

Hurricane Maria to Make Landfall in Newfoundland

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Sep 16, 2011; 9:10 AM ET
Share |

This enhanced satellite image of Maria was taken Friday midday, Sept. 16, 2011, when the center of the storm was about 375 miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
With Bermuda in the rearview mirror, Hurricane Maria will make landfall over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland this afternoon.
Maria strengthened into a hurricane late Thursday afternoon.
Satellite and buoy data suggest that Maria was not gaining strength today. Most likely, cold water is taking its toll on the system. However, people in Newfoundland and should take the storm seriously. Canadian Weather Expert Brett Anderson has more information on Maria in his blog.
Maria was moving to the northeast at blinding speed; 45 mph or 72 kph.
According to Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski, "Even though Maria passed well west of Bermuda, it brought significant effects to the islands."

Maria's Effects on Atlantic Canada
Maria will join up with a non-tropical storm to bring an expanding area of heavy rain and gusty winds from Nova Scotia to Labrador.
As a result, Maria will pack a punch with rain, winds and seas.
Folks in the area should treat the storm as a strong nor'easter, although the storm may behave at times somewhat differently.
One or two periods of strong winds are in store, especially on the trailing side of the storm.

A surge of humid air is preceding Maria's passage from Nova Scotia to Newfoundland early today, before much cooler air sweeps in from the west over the region during the weekend.
Initially, formidable winds will blow from the east and southeast on the front side of the storm, only to kick in very strongly from the west on the trailing side. It is on Maria's trailing side where the roughest seas and strongest winds are likely over the Gulf of St. Lawrence region.
At peak, winds can gust to 120 kph, but local terrain effects could produce gusts significantly higher on Sable Island and Newfoundland on both the front and back side of the storm.
**Make sure items are secured around properties. Vessels should be secured in port due to a period of rough seas.
There will be a period or two of heavy rain, mostly on the front side of the storm, that can lead to flash flooding, road washouts and landslides.
Rainfall is forecast to range from 60 to 100 millimeters in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The rain will fall within a 12-hour period in much of Newfoundland, closer to Maria's direct influence, where it will hit hard and fast, but also leave quickly.
However, a longer, less intense rainfall is likely for Labrador, farther away from the main center of the complex storm system.
Interestingly, enough cold air will be drawn in on the trailing side of the storm to produce heavy snow over the highlands of Labrador later today.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2375 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:07 am

:uarrow: we are talking peak wind gusts to 120m.p.h. possible.. according to REPORTS.........TAKE CARE...PROTECT YOURSELVES FROM MARIA....




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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2376 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:17 am

Hurricane Maria is expected to make landfall sometime between 2:00 and 3:00 this afternoon, racing across the southern Avalon Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane. Winds will be hurricane force, between 100 and 120 kilometres per hour. They will possibly be even higher in some exposed areas, such as Cape Race.

Maria will also bring a lot of rain for much of south-eastern Newfoundland. Environment Canada meteorologist Herb Thoms says the south coast has already been hit with 30 to 40 millimetres of rain, and there's more to come. The system will move into the Avalon Peninsula this afternoon, which is forecasted to bring a total of 50 to 90 millimetres of rain. But Thoms says it will be accompanied by very strong winds, especially along the south coast and the southern Avalon.

The storm, which is moving quickly, should be out of the region by early this evening and starting to clear by tonight. While the amount of rain could cause some localized flooding, Thoms says Maria's potency is nothing like Hurricane Igor's. Nevertheless, residents are urged to take precautions as Maria makes landfall.

This system is also going to merge with a large low pressure system over Labrador.The coast of Labrador could end up being hit with hurricane force winds. Thoms says it would not be early for snowfall in Labrador, but it would be early for this type of intense system.

Winds, he reports, will be high. The Goose Bay area and along the coast could be buffeted by up to 80 kilometres per hour. He expects gusts to develop up to 100 kilometres per hour along the coast overnight, which will persist into Saturday before tapering off. The Canadian Hurricane Centre says winds could be hurricane force in the Straits and along the south coast of Labrador.

RCMP Traffic Services is reminding motorists to take precautions on the Trans Canada Highway today. Constable Adam Perry says travelers were reducing speeds this morning, and police hope that that diligence continues as Maria travels fast over the island. No accidents have been reported so far today, but Perry reports there is a lot of water built up on the highway.

He advises residents to stay at home if they don't have to travel over the TCH. If people do have to travel, they are asked to keep their speeds down and to adjust to conditions.

Be warned that power outages and flooding are distinct possibilities in the high winds and rain. For flooding, blocked culverts, malfunctioning traffic lights, or downed trees in St. John's, people should call 311 or 754-CITY (2489). For downed power lines or other emergencies requiring the assistance of police, fire crews or paramedics, the number is 911. For power outages, please contact Newfoundland Power at 737-5711.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2377 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:46 am

There really isn't much to make landfall this afternoon. Maria is rapidly becoming an extratropical storm. Wind field is expanding and it doesn't have a core of intense squalls. Winds across Newfoundland now are generally light - 10-15 kts, with teh exception of the far eastern tip which is reporting 25-35 kts. There's a buoy SE of the center reporting 50 kts. Maria's stronger winds will likely pass east of Newfoundland (over the water). Winds are actually much stronger 350 miles W-NW of the center over Nova Scotia, where many stations are reporting 30-45 kt winds in the wake of the cold front.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2378 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:06 pm

Hamilton Bermuda was on the strong side of Maria's circulation but the 20 second winds only briefly reached 40 MPH with a reported gust in the low 50's. I doubt Labrador is going to get much worse than a typical northeaster.

Where is the next storm forming?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2379 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:20 pm

Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland
By Dr. Jeff Masters
Published: 1:46 PM GMT on September 16, 2011
Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge willdo.

Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.
Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane
If Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."



Wxman 57...you are absolutely correct!...Excellent post that you made ....
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#2380 Postby Maritimer71 » Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:33 pm

It is a bit breezy here in Nova Scotia, but nothing that would resemble anything even storm like.

I thought we would have some good waves and surf, but it looks pretty calm out there to me... Not sure why that would be... Katia kicked up some pretty good waves, and I think she was further away.
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