WPAC: SONCA - Severe Tropical Storm (19W)

[Macrocane]

This is unbelievable! I don't live in the WPAC basinbut I can't help feeling annoyed with this underestimation.

[phwxenthusiast]

what's even sadder is that Sonca's maybe weakening now... already lost that eye feature on the IR... microwave still looks good so i hope it maintains that strength...

[euro6208]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/Quote]

OK the JMA is underestimating Sonca too, IMO it looks like a typhoon 10-min and 1-min winds, JMA should have 65 kt and JTWC 80 kt, it's a small tropical cyclone and Dvorak is not good in these cases. I wonder why there is no RECON in this area, I'm sure that Japan could develop very good technologies to do it.

recon stopped in 1987 i think due to money problems but here in the west pacific, countries like japan, korea and china can work together to make recon happen. it would be exciting to bring back recon to penetrate those extremely powerful typhoons that form every year...

[Macrocane]

recon stopped in 1987 i think due to money problems but here in the west pacific, countries like japan, korea and china can work together to make recon happen. it would be exciting to bring back recon to penetrate those extremely powerful typhoons that form every year...

It would be pretty cool and would not only help to know the real intensity of the cyclones but it would provide the models more info making them more reliable in that basin. And if money is the problem they could use recon in selected storms, or make less missions per storm than in the Atlantic. Hopefully someday we will see it.

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 970.1mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 3.8 3.3

Sonca reached as high as 5.1 equivalent to 90 knots 1 minute winds...




and just recently upgraded to typhoon strength of 65 knots? what a joke!

[Typhoon Hunter]

I don't know what's wrong with JMA this year and intensity analysis. Nockten, Muifa and Sonca just to name a few. I would have thought that recon last year and especially Megi would have taught them that Dvorak constraints are regularly surpassed by typhoons yet they resolutely refuse to break them. It's a shame because I'm losing a lot of respect for them.

Can't wait to see the BT file for Muifa. When it had a 5nm pinhole eye almost identical to Wilma's JMA had it with peak winds of 95kts...

[dexterlabio]

^I couldn't agree more. Plus the fact that they considered Talas as a TY when certainly that fake eye is too ragged to consider it a typhoon. If I were to choose between Sonca and Talas, I'd pick Sonca as the legit TY.

[dexterlabio]

Come on an intense-looking eye appeared again so what now aren't they considering this as a TY still?

[dexterlabio]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful system

[Fyzn94]

Beautiful system

WOW...that looks far different than it did during the day.

[Typhoon Hunter]

^I couldn't agree more. Plus the fact that they considered Talas as a TY when certainly that fake eye is too ragged to consider it a typhoon. If I were to choose between Sonca and Talas, I'd pick Sonca as the legit TY.

Don't even get me started on the over estimation of storms near Japan...

If this isn't upgraded to a TY at 06z I don't think I'll ever open the TC page on JMA again

[dexterlabio]

Don't even get me started on the over estimation of storms near Japan...

If this isn't upgraded to a TY at 06z I don't think I'll ever open the TC page on JMA again

This is the year when intensity estimates of WPAC storms are just too painful to accept. My first time this year to see a storm that its 10-min wind ave. is greater than the 1-min average. Also my first time (and now, second time) to witness a TC with a decent eye declared as a 50-55kt TS.

Sorry if I filled this thread up with rants but I just couldn't help it.

[dexterlabio]

Please tell me this is not the latest update.

STS 1116 (SONCA)
Issued at 04:05 UTC, 18 September 2011

<Analyses at 18/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N29°25'(29.4°)
E142°30'(142.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E370km(200NM)
W190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 18/15 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N32°10'(32.2°)
E142°00'(142.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 19/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N35°05'(35.1°)
E144°05'(144.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 20/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N40°00'(40.0°)
E153°35'(153.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 21/00 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N43°20'(43.3°)
E171°35'(171.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 65km/h(35kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 600km(325NM)




Too bad we couldn't consider this officially as a TY but we know deep in our hearts...well you know...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Dexter that's the 03z intermediary update. JMA usually don't change intensity at these updates but can and have done in the past. Now the 06z will be out within next 1.5 hours, that's the crucial one to see. I cannot begin to understand how this cannot be upgraded to a TY then.

Ranting is good and at least we're backing up our criticisms with evidence to support our claims - not that any is needed, just open the damn satellite

[euro6208]

very organized. who cares about jma, they use 10 minute average. i follow only 1 minute which jtwc uses and even there really low. looks to me like sonca is around 95 knots 1 minute winds...

[Typhoon Hunter]

very organized. who cares about jma, they use 10 minute average. i follow only 1 minute which jtwc uses and even there really low. looks to me like sonca is around 95 knots 1 minute winds...

It doesn't have much to do with difference in 10-min and 1-min winds (the vast majority of the world uses 10-mins as the standard) it would be a damn typhoon if we used hourly averages!!

I agree though, lovely looking system especially given it's quite far north. Well done to ECMWF, they forecast it becoming a small and potent system very well!

[Extratropical94]

FINALLY!

Intensity is still kinda ridiculous but at least they upgraded Sonca.

<Analyses at 18/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N30°10'(30.2°)
E142°30'(142.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E370km(200NM)
W190km(100NM)


Dvorak is now at 5.0 / 90 knots 1-min:

18/0232 UTC 29.4N 142.5E T5.0/5.0 SONCA -- West Pacific

[phwxenthusiast]

they must've read our rants here hooray!!

[dexterlabio]

as expected, they will raise the intensity.

WTPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 31.7N 142.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.7N 142.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 34.7N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 37.7N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 40.6N 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 43.8N 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 32.5N 142.9E.
TYPHOON 19W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST EAST OF NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN