WPAC: SONCA - Severe Tropical Storm (19W)

[HURAKAN]

Looking great in this microwave image

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Chacor]

I've not seen a typhoon look that good at that latitude in a really long time.

[Typhoon Hunter]

I've not seen a typhoon look that good at that latitude in a really long time.

Just what I was thinking! Looks superb.

Thank goodness it's not tracking into Tokyo Bay!

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave image

[dexterlabio]

Maybe the key to survive in higher latitudes is to have a small circulation?

[phwxenthusiast]

will it be able to complete EWRC before weakening??

but i agree, it looks very symmetrical even with that high of a latitude..

[euro6208]

yeah very far north for a system this strong...

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1116 SONCA (1116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 36.0N 146.1E GOOD
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 41.6N 158.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 32KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 210600UTC 44.0N 179.8E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 36.0N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.0N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 39.4N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 42.0N 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 43.8N 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 36.9N 147.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
CONVECTION REMAINS SOLID WITH SLIGHT DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A SMALL 10-NM IRREGULAR EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES. TY 19W HAS BEGUN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 36. IT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET KNOWN MODEL TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN DURING ET.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
18W (ROKE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


80 knots

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1116 SONCA (1116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 36.7N 147.4E GOOD
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 42.3N 161.3E 130NM 70%
MOVE ENE 34KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 210600UTC 44.0N 179.8E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1116 SONCA (1116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 39.2N 153.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 28KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 43.4N 171.0E 130NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 022
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 39.9N 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.9N 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 42.0N 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 43.1N 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 40.4N 157.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
VERIFIES THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS (XTT) IS WELL
UNDERWAY. THE CLOUD SHIELD IS EXPANDING AS TS 19W MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC. TS 19W WILL COMPLETE
XTT AND TRANSITION INTO A HIGH-GALE TO STORM FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (ROKE)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

FINAL WARNING


i 1911091812 317N1426E 95
1911091812 317N1426E 95
1911091812 317N1426E 95

jtwc has this at peak intensity of 95 knots 1 minute which seems about right.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1116 SONCA (1116) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 40.7N 160.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 37KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 43.1N 179.7E 130NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =