WPAC: SONCA - Severe Tropical Storm (19W)

[dexterlabio]

94WINVEST.15kts-1010mb
around 15.0N 155.0E

I thought this is the area of convection near Hainan (I am expecting that to develop), but then here it goes. We surely have an active week ahead.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5N
153.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A
130257Z AMSR-E AQUA1 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CURVED, SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A DIVERGENT AREA, HOWEVER THERE IS
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AS IT RESIDES
JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC AT THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. A 130136Z PARTIAL OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15
KNOTS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AT APPROXIMATELY 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. DUE TO
THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC AND THE UNFAVORABLE VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
REMAINS LOW.

[phwxenthusiast]

Closed circulation found on ASCAT...

[euro6208]

T1.5/1.5 94W

euro has a small weak tropical cyclone recurving out to sea east of japan

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 20.9N 154.7E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 22.0N 151.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Extratropical94]

19WNINETEEN.20kts-1007mb-209N-1543E

Wow, a tropical depression initialized with 20 knots.

[phwxenthusiast]

that's for 12z... i'm guessing they're gonna increase it to 25kts on their 21z update...

[Extratropical94]

Oh, my bad. Where exactly do I see when the data was published?

[StormingB81]

UPGRADED: Tropical Depression 19w

[StormingB81]

WTPN32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141421ZSEP2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 154.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 154.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.8N 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.0N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.0N 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.2N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 29.8N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 33.3N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 37.3N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 154.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED
UNDER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE, PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. DESPITE MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A 141550Z AMSR-E 36 GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE AMSR-E IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A 141026Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 25-30
KNOT WINDS AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. TD 19W IS
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CREATED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR 160E.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR TAU 24 AS THE
STR BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH. TD 19W IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE EAST
OF JAPAN AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO JAPAN. TD 19W IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 96 AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIMITED (NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAR, GFS) BUT IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT. TD 19W IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SLOWLY DUE TO GENERALLY
MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 141421Z SEP 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN22 PGTW 141430). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

[phwxenthusiast]

Oh, my bad. Where exactly do I see when the data was published?

I usually go by the time stamp indicated on one of their products--usually the IR image...

for ex: below you can see the image was taken around 2101z and the 1800z time on top of that should be the indication on the recentness of the data they have... at least, that's what i think

[phwxenthusiast]

now Tropical Storm Sonca,....

[Extratropical94]

WTPN32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 23.1N 153.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 153.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.0N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 25.3N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 27.1N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 29.9N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 36.1N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 38.9N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 152.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1116 SONCA (1116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 23.3N 148.9E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 27.5N 143.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 181800UTC 33.2N 143.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 191800UTC 37.4N 150.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[phwxenthusiast]

wow Sonca is really looking good now... it may have a chance at achieving TY status... imho

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[RL3AO]

wow Sonca is really looking good now... it may have a chance at achieving TY status... imho

[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc11/WPAC/19W.SONCA/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/20110916.2112.f16.x.91h_1deg.19WSONCA.45kts-989mb-236N-1489E.47pc.jpg[ /img]

Didn't know 45kt TS's had closed eyewalls.

[euro6208]

wow! sonca has rapidly intensified!

[RL3AO]

Looks like a typhoon (1-min) to me.