ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2011, DB, O, 2011091806, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992011
AL, 99, 2011091706, , BEST, 0, 163N, 386W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011091712, , BEST, 0, 168N, 402W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011091718, , BEST, 0, 170N, 413W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011091800, , BEST, 0, 172N, 423W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011091806, , BEST, 0, 173N, 433W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[AJC3]

This is the small low at the north end of the speed surge line that is "connected" to 98L. Speed surges are simply areas of enhanced easterly winds in the deep tropics, and are usually denoted by a convergent band of clouds/showers along it's leading edge.

Back about 15 years ago, I started affectionately calling these speed surge lines in the deep tropics "tow-ropes" because of their appearance - they are often connected to well-organized tropical waves, where the lead system appears to be towing the trailing one.

[cycloneye]

Thank you Tony for that explanation about this complex situation between systems.

Here is the 8 AM TWO:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[ronjon]

Here are the early model tracks:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

[Extratropical94]

12Z Tropical Models - not even worth mentioning:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 181220

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC SUN SEP 18 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110918 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110918  1200   110919  0000   110919  1200   110920  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.3N  43.9W   17.8N  46.1W   18.2N  48.2W   18.5N  50.5W
BAMD    17.3N  43.9W   17.3N  44.1W   17.2N  44.6W   17.3N  45.5W
BAMM    17.3N  43.9W   17.5N  45.0W   17.5N  46.3W   17.5N  47.9W
LBAR    17.3N  43.9W   17.5N  44.6W   18.0N  45.6W   18.7N  46.7W
SHIP        20KTS          21KTS          22KTS          23KTS
DSHP        20KTS          21KTS          22KTS          23KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110920  1200   110921  1200   110922  1200   110923  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.9N  53.3W   20.2N  58.9W   21.7N  64.9W   23.8N  70.6W
BAMD    17.5N  46.7W   18.2N  49.7W   18.4N  53.4W   18.4N  57.9W
BAMM    17.7N  49.8W   18.2N  54.0W   18.6N  59.1W   19.1N  64.5W
LBAR    20.0N  48.1W   22.8N  51.4W   25.2N  54.4W   26.7N  56.8W
SHIP        24KTS          25KTS          27KTS          32KTS
DSHP        24KTS          25KTS          27KTS          32KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.3N LONCUR =  43.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  17.2N LONM12 =  42.3W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  16.8N LONM24 =  40.0W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

[floridasun78]

i see one person say this not thing to watch my question why nhc calling it invest 99 i bet their see something with this area to call invest to run models

[rainstorm]

just looking at the water vapor i dont think 99L stands a chance.

[cycloneye]

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Convection has flared up tonight to the north of the swirl

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Hylian Auree]

This thing has a good shot, but only if it can spin up fast enough. I reckon an upping to 30% or so by 2 AM if trends continue.

[O Town]

[cycloneye]

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/705/97l2.gif/]http://img705.imageshack.us/img705/828/97l2.gif/url]

That was for now dead 97L.

[O Town]

woops, edited to reflect 99L.

[cycloneye]

Hasta la vista!

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[Hylian Auree]

Yeah, it lost its chance.

[tobol.7uno]

Does not look like they want this to be a storm.

[tobol.7uno]

Also no idea where it is going!

[Shuriken]

No sooner killed, and the CBs blow up again.....

[westwind]

I'm supprised this hasn't even got a 0% from the NHC, It looks to have a partialy exposed surface circulation with a reasonable amount of convection. We have allready had similer looking highly sheared systems get named this year like Jose and I wouldn't be supprised if it happened again with ex99L.

[Hylian Auree]

Wait, why isn't this getting any attention? The circulation looks very defined, and even though it's sheared it is definitely tropical. Not even a mention in the TWO? ._.