EPAC: HILARY - Remnants

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#101 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 23, 2011 7:57 am

12z BT still at 125kts.
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#102 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Sep 23, 2011 8:06 am

Convection has waned some, Dvorak IR not as impressive as it was earlier as the light greys have shrunk and the darker greys have disappeared (those both being inside the white). However, to counteract that, the eye has become much better defined. I think holding at 125 knots is a good call at this time.
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#103 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 23, 2011 9:13 am

Looks it has intensified once again IMO.
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#104 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2011 9:14 am

Dvorak does poorly with pinhole eyes though. I would have it at 135 kt personally with some uncertainty. Around 0900Z it might have been a Cat 5 IMO.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Sep 23, 2011 9:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#105 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2011 9:16 am

23/1145 UTC 16.0N 102.1W T6.0/6.5 HILARY -- East Pacific

May have peaked higher earlier.
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#106 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2011 9:21 am

The EPAC slogan in 2011: Go big or go home!

It sure seems that everything that forms there is turning into something big, unlike in the Atlantic where everyone is whiffing it seems despite a high number of storms...
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#107 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 23, 2011 9:51 am

Adv not yet out though. :(
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#108 Postby WmE » Fri Sep 23, 2011 10:36 am

Impressive stadium effect going on now. If it isn't a Cat 5 it's pretty close.
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#109 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 23, 2011 10:54 am

Lot's of models are still recurving it. Some still bring it over Mexico, and moisture to Texas is not out of the question.
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane

#110 Postby lilybeth » Fri Sep 23, 2011 11:30 am

Not very often you have a cat 4 this close to land with no recon.


Is there a reason for no recon? Just curious as to what the theory would be for not having any. Is it due to the fact that many of the models have her continuing out into the open Pacific?
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane

#111 Postby tobol.7uno » Fri Sep 23, 2011 12:11 pm

Almost all models show a recurve back towards land now. Not a good thing!
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane

#112 Postby tobol.7uno » Fri Sep 23, 2011 12:12 pm

Large spread in the intensity plots...
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane

#113 Postby bg1 » Fri Sep 23, 2011 12:12 pm

Image

Is it weakening? There were gray (cooler) cloud tops earlier.

Never mind, they're coming back.
Last edited by bg1 on Fri Sep 23, 2011 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane

#114 Postby tobol.7uno » Fri Sep 23, 2011 12:14 pm

Impressive Hurricane!
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#115 Postby Caribwxgirl » Fri Sep 23, 2011 12:36 pm

Wow Hilary is really something!
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#116 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2011 12:53 pm

Classic 2011 pattern. Seems like the northern hemisphere has gone dyslexic - one basin gets the numerical activity, the other the monsters and nothing else.
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#117 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2011 1:01 pm

It seems weird now that an EPAC storm is garnering as much interest as an Atlantic storm given recent posts...how many pages if this makes landfall? Last landfalling EPAC major was Lane in 2006?
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#118 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 23, 2011 1:05 pm

If I was in Mexico I would keep my eyes glued on this 24/7.
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#119 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 23, 2011 1:15 pm

Image

Pinhole.
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane

#120 Postby bg1 » Fri Sep 23, 2011 2:51 pm

Grays are starting to come back.

[url]http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/843/bdln.jpg/]Image[/url]

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    UW - CIMSS
    ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
    ADT-Version 8.1.3
    Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

    ----- Current Analysis -----
    Date : 23 SEP 2011 Time : 184500 UTC
    Lat : 16:18:27 N Lon : 102:52:36 W


    CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
    6.5 / 939.8mb/127.0kt


    Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
    6.2 6.2 6.2

    Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

    Center Temp : +7.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.7C
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