EPAC: HILARY - Remnants

[tolakram]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
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0000
201109191159
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011091906, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962011
EP, 96, 2011091806, , BEST, 0, 115N, 920W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2011091812, , BEST, 0, 117N, 924W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2011091818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 927W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2011091900, , BEST, 0, 121N, 930W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2011091906, , BEST, 0, 122N, 932W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 175, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[tolakram]

Both GFS and Euro have this developing.

saved images:

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 191731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
ESCONDIDO MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HurricaneBill]

Wow. Signs of life in the EPAC.

[lilybeth]

Forgive my totally non-knowledgeable question but since this storm seems to be heading W-NW, does that mean it would be most likely to head off into the open water, or is there ever a chance of storms in this area to turn and head into the gulf? I was just wondering if this could possibly bring some moisture to Texas. (Nothing devastating, just a nice good amount of rainfall)

[Macrocane]

Unfortunately for Texas 96E is expected to go northwest going away from land.

[KWT]

ECM really fires this one up into quite a strong hurricane.

[Chacor]

TCFA:

WTPN21 PHNC 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2N 94.7W TO 14.4N 99.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
200930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N
95.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 95.2W,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200311Z METOP-A
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 200311Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE PERIPHERY. OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211000Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO
MEXICO. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Caribwxgirl]

You know I think this is gonna be a TC before 98L...looks good for it on the satellite pics.

Of course this is not an official forecast, merely my opinion, check the NHC for accurate information.

[Chacor]

Now 90%.

ABPZ20 KNHC 202332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Caribwxgirl]

[q
uote="Caribwxgirl"]You know I think this is gonna be a TC before 98L...looks good for it on the satellite pics.

Of course this is not an official forecast, merely my opinion, check the NHC for accurate information.[/quote]

I was so wrong we now have Ophelia from 98L and this is still an invest lol

[Yellow Evan]

Forgive my totally non-knowledgeable question but since this storm seems to be heading W-NW, does that mean it would be most likely to head off into the open water, or is there ever a chance of storms in this area to turn and head into the gulf? I was just wondering if this could possibly bring some moisture to Texas. (Nothing devastating, just a nice good amount of rainfall)

Meh, there is a chance if this system pulls a Kenna or Rick which is not 100% of out the question at this time, but still fairly unlikely.

[lilybeth]

Thanks for the replies Yellow Evan and Macrocane, very much appreciated.

[Kingarabian]

Should be a depression by the next update.

[Florida1118]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 210849
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
200 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 96.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WESTWARD TO
NEAR ACAPULCO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Yellow Evan]

Reminds me of several high-impacting storms.

[Extratropical94]

Now Tropical Storm Hilary:

TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...AND THE
LATEST MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A
LARGE CURVED BAND EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CYCLONE AND A LESS-DEFINED BAND EXISTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATES. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS NOW TROPICAL STORM HILARY.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
HILARY REMAINS IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS OF
28-29C. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR HILARY TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THIS
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS A
BLEND OF THE AGGRESSIVE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS AND THE LESS
ENTHUSIASTIC LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.

HILARY IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/5. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
WEAK STEERING FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY...SO A CONTINUED SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO THE
NORTH OF HILARY WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO ACCELERATE SOME AND REMAIN
ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVEN THE UNREALISTIC-LOOKING
NOGAPS SOLUTION.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HILARY. ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 13.6N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 13.9N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 14.5N 98.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.1N 100.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 15.7N 101.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 16.8N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 18.0N 108.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI