ATL: PHILIPPE - Post - Tropical - Discussion

[Macrocane]

wow! I was going to mention that in some visible frames it looks like it is trying to develop a banded eye, but I'm not sure if it was just dry air wrapping around the center.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011

...PHILIPPE STILL ON AN INTENSITY ROLLER COASTER...MAXIMUM WINDS NOW
65 MPH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 55.8W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
HAS RE-FORMED FARTHER SOUTH.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST. PHILIPPE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN


TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011

SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN
LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WE JUST
RECEIVED A 1250 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT INDICATES THE CENTER MAY HAVE
DIVED SOUTH...OR EVEN RE-FORMED...NEAR THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE
ASCAT DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KT.

PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF NORTHERLY
SHEAR...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.
SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...AND EVEN
STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS...THERE IS NOT MUCH
REASON TO DOUBT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PHILIPPE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
REACH A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BY DAY 3...WHICH SHOULD FOSTER
SOME STRENGTHENING AT THAT TIME. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW TAKE
PHILIPPE TO OR JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT FOR NOW THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST STOPS JUST SHORT OF SHOWING THAT. THE 00 UTC
CYCLE OF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE PHILIPPE IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS CONTINUES IN THE
12 UTC CYCLE.

WITH THE RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE LONG-TERM 24-HOUR MOTION IS
250 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS STEERING
PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY AN EXPANDING
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SHARPLY
NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 3. A NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD ACCELERATION
IS INDICATED ON DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES
VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 24.8N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 25.0N 57.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 25.2N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 25.7N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 26.5N 60.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 28.5N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 30.5N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 32.5N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

...PHILIPPE STILL ON AN INTENSITY ROLLER COASTER...MAXIMUM WINDS NOW
65 MPH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 55.8W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[cycloneye]

From 11 AM Discussion:

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW TAKE
PHILIPPE TO OR JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT FOR NOW THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST STOPS JUST SHORT OF SHOWING THAT.

In other words,it may be a hurricane for a brief time.

[TheEuropean]

Here are the latest models:

WHXX01 KWBC 031430
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1430 UTC MON OCT 3 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE (AL172011) 20111003 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
111003 1200 111004 0000 111004 1200 111005 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.8N 54.9W 24.9N 56.7W 25.3N 58.7W 26.1N 60.3W
BAMD 24.8N 54.9W 23.5N 57.2W 22.6N 59.3W 22.1N 60.8W
BAMM 24.8N 54.9W 24.4N 57.1W 24.4N 59.3W 25.0N 61.0W
LBAR 24.8N 54.9W 24.1N 57.0W 23.9N 59.3W 24.1N 61.2W
SHIP 55KTS 60KTS 61KTS 60KTS
DSHP 55KTS 60KTS 61KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
111005 1200 111006 1200 111007 1200 111008 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.9N 61.3W 29.2N 61.7W 30.6N 60.1W 29.9N 58.7W
BAMD 21.7N 62.2W 21.1N 64.1W 21.3N 63.2W 22.2N 60.3W
BAMM 25.6N 62.1W 28.0N 61.9W 31.6N 57.6W 36.9N 47.5W
LBAR 24.3N 62.7W 25.0N 62.9W 26.4N 60.2W 29.0N 54.7W
SHIP 60KTS 64KTS 68KTS 64KTS
DSHP 60KTS 64KTS 68KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.8N LONCUR = 54.9W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 26.2N LONM12 = 53.2W DIRM12 = 260DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 26.2N LONM24 = 51.2W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 998MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 65NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 50NM

[lilybeth]

Movement shifted to south-southwest. This is the precursor to the northern shift in the models, yes?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST MON OCT 03 2011

PHILIPPE IS TILTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH HEIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED
NORTHERLY SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T3.5...OR 55
KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 255 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE
CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER TO THE WEST
AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS PHILIPPE REACHES
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW
NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RE-CURVATURE AHEAD OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED BY 48-72 HOURS...BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE 12 UTC
MODELS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND TRENDED SLOWER. BASED ON THIS
CHANGE...THE NEW FORECAST IS SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN SLOWED DOWN ON DAYS 4 AND 5.

PHILIPPE HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 36 HOURS OF BEING IN A HIGH-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THAT TIME. BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH COULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING. ALL
OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO...AND THE STATISTICAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOWING PHILIPPE BECOMING A HURRICANE AT THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY THAT TIME. IT IS STILL A LITTLE DISCONCERTING THAT THE
12 UTC CYCLE OF THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION OF PHILIPPE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN THAT MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE
LEFTOVER VORTEX COULD BE LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. IF THE TRACK OF PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND
FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THERE COULD BE A DELAY BEFORE IT IS NEGATIVELY
AFFECTED BY THE DEVELOPING SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE
ALLOWS PHILIPPE TO BECOME A HURRICANE AROUND DAY 4...BUT IT IS
STILL LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 24.6N 56.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 24.5N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 24.8N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 25.2N 61.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 25.8N 61.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 27.5N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 29.0N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

Is now forecast to become a hurricane.

INIT 03/2100Z 24.6N 56.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 24.5N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 24.8N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 25.2N 61.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 25.8N 61.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 27.5N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 29.0N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If Philippe was vertically stacked, seeing how a potential indicator popped up, I would say there was a very high chance he would go through a period of RI starting within 6 to 12 hours...but he is not, and shear is still screaming at him...so, instead, I think he'll strengthen some more tonight into tomorrow and will become our next hurricane by tomorrow night. Looking at strengthening on the order of 10 to 15 knots over the next 24 hours. Seeing how it is currently 55 knots, that would put the winds at 65 to 70 knots by tomorrow night. That would be a feat in and of itself.

[dwsqos2]

Microwave imagery was still impressive at 2045Z.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST MON OCT 03 2011

PHILIPPE SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN. WHILE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE RECENTLY WARMED NEAR THE CENTER...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STABLE CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR SOME TIME. THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
AFFECTING THE STORM HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED. A LATE AFTERNOON
MICROWAVE OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN CLOUD MASS...WITH A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE
IN THE TILT OF THE VORTEX SINCE EARLIER TODAY. OVERALL...THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE STORM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND AN
AVERAGE OF 0000 UTC DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS RESULTS IN HOLDING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55 KT.

PHILIPPE HAD BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT
LATEST FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF 240/10 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD COURSE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...EQUATORWARD OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BY 36 HOURS...THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A COMPLEX AND AMPLIFIED
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND SLOW BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE BY 72 HOURS. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE EAST THIS CYCLE AND IS NOW
FORECASTING A SHARPER RECURVATURE...WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD NOTED
AT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE RECENT CENTER RE-LOCATION AND
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY MODEL SOLUTIONS...GIVEN THEIR
BETTER HANDLE ON THE BOTH THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT MOTION. AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY SOME MODELS IS FOR PHILIPPE TO
BECOME ABSORBED BY AN ADVANCING FRONTAL TROUGH BETWEEN 72 AND 120
HOURS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER TRICKY. THE MODELS SUGGEST A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN SHEAR AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN SHEAR OCCURRING IN ABOUT 36 TO 72 HOURS. THIS MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-AIR PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE...AND PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER 72 HOURS...INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND
A FRONTAL ZONE IMPINGING UPON PHILIPPE SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING...
PERHAPS EVEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AND IS BELOW THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FORECAST OVER PHILIPPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 23.7N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 23.5N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 23.9N 60.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 24.5N 61.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 25.3N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 27.0N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 28.7N 56.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 30.3N 52.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Macrocane]

Very interesting appearence of Philippe on IR, I'm not sure if those are the effects of dry air or it's some sort of ragged eye:

[dwsqos2]

I'm in the ragged partial eye camp. Its position is pretty close to the feature depicted in microwave imagery.

[HenkL]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2011

PHILIPPE IS A RARE CREATURE. IT HAS AN EYE FEATURE IN BOTH
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONVECTION FOR THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS TO INDICATE
HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN FACT...THESE ESTIMATES YIELD TO LOWER WINDS
THAN EARLIER TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT
PHILIPPE IS A HURRICANE. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. I WOULD LOVE TO
HAVE A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE TO REALLY KNOW THE TRUE INTENSITY OF
PHILIPPE.

THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS THE SHEAR
RELAXES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BEFORE IT BECOMES ATTACHED
TO THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GUIDANCE TREND AND MAKES PHILLIPE A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO...BUT
THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

PHILIPPE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAPPED SOUTH OF
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE . IT APPEARS THAT IT HAS NOW BEGUN TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AS IT REACHING THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE PHILIPPE TO SHARPLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR
RECURVE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. PHILIPPE MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO EACH
OTHER BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SINCE THIS IS THE TREND INDICATED BY
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS
HAVE PHILIPPE MEANDERING JUST SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 23.6N 58.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 23.5N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 23.8N 61.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 24.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 26.0N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 27.5N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 29.0N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 32.0N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Bad_Hurricane]

Code: Select all

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2011

...PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO SURVIVE AGAINST THE ODDS...


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OiV_5kEt6A[/youtube]

[CrazyC83]

Based on the eye feature and persistence, I'd give Philippe a 65 kt peak intensity, even if just to be generous.

[AdamFirst]

Tropical Storm Phil(lippe)...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2011

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A COUPLE MORE MICROWAVE IMAGES ARRIVED
AND INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE REMAINED
WELL ORGANIZED THROUGH 1000 UTC. THE IMAGES REVEALED A LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS VERTICALLY ALIGNED. THIS DATA ALONG
WITH DVORAK AND AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WAS
POSSIBLY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVERNIGHT. SINCE THAT TIME...THE
CLOUD PATTERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY APPEARS SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE
WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SMALL CONVECTIVE
MASS. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 55 KT.

ACCORDING TO A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS...PHILIPPE REMAINS UNDER
ABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO A NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING AND MAKES PHILLIPE A HURRICANE IN A
DAY OR SO. AFTER 48 HOURS...STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES ARE FORECAST TO IMPINGE UPON THE CYCLONE AND
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. PHILIPPE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
A FRONT WITHIN 4 OR 5 DAYS...AND THE NEW FORECAST SHOWS PHILIPPE AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 120 HOURS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE CYCLONE IS NEARING
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. THE
LARGE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO RECURVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER THAT THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED FASTER AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER GIVEN ITS TENACITY
PHILIPPE IS MAINTAINED AS A CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 23.9N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 24.0N 60.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 24.5N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 25.4N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 26.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 28.5N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 31.0N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 36.0N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Ad Novoxium]

Does anyone have a comparison in microwave between Phillipe when it had its best eye and Shary when it became a hurricane?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2011

THE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
HAVE FALLEN TO 45 KT...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1410 UTC SHOWED A FEW 50
KT BARBS IN THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 55 KT.

GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR WHICH
HAS BEEN AFFECTING PHILIPPE FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS SHOULD ABATE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN A FAVORABLE BUT SMALL REGION
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
PHILIPPE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME FRAME. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PHILIPPE AFTER
48 HOURS...YET FOR THE MOST PART THE INTENSITY MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH WEAKENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LGEM...WHICH TENDS TO
HANDLE SHEAR BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND IT IS HIGHER THAN THE LGEM AT DAY 5
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BAROCLINIC FORCING AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW-CLOUD LINES SUGGEST TO ME THAT IT HAS
EITHER JUMPED TO THE NORTH...OR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING SOMEWHAT ELONGATED. REGARDLESS...PHILIPPE HAS AN AVERAGED
INITIAL MOTION OF 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT AND IS ABOUT START ITS SHARP
RE-CURVATURE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR
THE FIRST 72 HOURS...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...THE ECMWF IS ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO APPEARS TO
DIFFER FROM THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BY HAVING PHILIPPE STAY FARTHER
SOUTH AND BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
IT BECOMING THE MAIN THE PARENT CYCLONE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT IS THEN VERY SIMILAR ON DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 24.1N 60.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 24.5N 61.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 25.2N 61.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 26.3N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 27.3N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 29.5N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 32.0N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 36.5N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BERG