ATL: PHILIPPE - Post - Tropical - Discussion

[HenkL]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2011

AN AMSU-B PASS AT 0509 UTC AND ANOTHER ONE AT 0618 UTC CONFIRMED
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS EXPOSED AND LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE
CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. OTHERWISE...THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH EXCEPT THAT IT IS BECOMING
MORE ELONGATED AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS KEPT AT 989 MB BASED ON A RECENT REPORT OF 990
MB FROM A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT PHILIPPE WILL INTERACT WITH OR BECOME
ABSORBED BY A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT PHILIPPE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070 DEGREES AT 21 KNOTS. AS THE STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE POST-TROPICAL
PORTION OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY
THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 31.1N 50.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 33.5N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 37.5N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/1800Z 41.0N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/0600Z 44.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0600Z 52.5N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 58.0N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HenkL]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2011

MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES AND REPORTS FROM DRIFTING BUOY 41575
INDICATE THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY POSITION. OTHERWISE...THE CYCLONE IS ON TRACK AND IS
ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 050/25 KT. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
PHILIPPE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM
NEWFOUNDLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND BACK AROUND TO A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE
PHILIPPE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COLD WATERS THAT LIE JUST NORTH
OF 37N LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE NHC CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN
AND TVCA.

SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 40 KT...COUPLED WITH
SSTS BELOW 24C...IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. PHILIPPE COULD ALSO MERGE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT PHILIPPE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BE FULLY POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 HOURS OVER
THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY MODELS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE NOAA OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON INPUT FROM THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 33.2N 47.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 35.7N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 39.1N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0000Z 42.5N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1200Z 46.3N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1200Z 54.0N 28.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 59.0N 18.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 59
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2011

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND ELONGATED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. PHILIPPE IS ALSO MOVING OVER
COOLER WATER NOW AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS QUICKLY ENCROACHING
FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/26 KT. PHILIPPE SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS ARE JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED
BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 35.3N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 37.4N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 09/1800Z 40.5N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0600Z 44.0N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1800Z 48.5N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1800Z 56.5N 24.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS MERGED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT...ALTHOUGH THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE WAS ADJUSTED LOWER BASED ON A 987.5 MB REPORT FROM
DRIFTING BUOY 44878 ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BECOME
ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY DAY 4. THE STORM IS
MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
PHILIPPE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 38.4N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 09/1200Z 40.2N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/0000Z 43.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/1200Z 46.5N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0000Z 51.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0000Z 59.0N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

See you in 2017!

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2011


THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
PHILIPPE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

[AnnularCane]

See you in 2017!

Assuming we make it this far down the list, that is!

Bye bye Philippe. You were an interesting one!

[Macrocane]

Bye bye Philippe, it was very interesting indeed, it was the longest lived cyclone in the Atlantic since 2008 Bertha.