WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Depression

[HurricaneBill]

Unfortunately, autumn is the time of year when not only do typhoons strike the Philippines, but they also tend to come in pairs.

[climateconcern23]

It seems that this system moving wsw

[dexterlabio]

Hmm. Nice structure at this early stage.

[CrazyC83]

Is that a pinhole eye there?

[Cranica]

Is that a pinhole eye there?

I don't believe so, looks to be a bit off-center.

[dexterlabio]

^A dimple feature as stated on the latest prognostics from JTWC

WDPN33 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 935 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A DIMPLE
FEATURE ON A 272332Z 1-KM RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TS 22W IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF WEAK (05-10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTLFOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL 20
DEGREES TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH IS CAUSING A MOMENTARY POLEWARD
PULL ON THE STORM MOTION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION AFTER
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH,
ASSUMES STEERING. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE
SEA COUPLED WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TROPICAL STORM NALGAE WILL PEAK INTENSITY BEFORE
BRUSHING THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYTEM. THE
STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK MORE EQUATORWARD AND SLIGHTLY ACCELERATE. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD AT 30 DEGREES WITH GFS ON THE LEFT AND
WBAR TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO
THE LEFT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE EXTREME POLEWARD PULL OF
WBAR.//
NNNN

[climateconcern23]

[dexterlabio]

Can someone explain what this is?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looks like an eye feature to me Dexter, certainly a funny little system. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets quite strong given it's small size and favourable environment ahead!

[euro6208]

WTPN33 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 136.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 136.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.2N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.0N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.0N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.2N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.7N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.9N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 136.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 935 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND
290300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (NESAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN33 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 935 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A DIMPLE
FEATURE ON A 272332Z 1-KM RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TS 22W IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF WEAK (05-10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTLFOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL 20
DEGREES TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH IS CAUSING A MOMENTARY POLEWARD
PULL ON THE STORM MOTION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION AFTER
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH,
ASSUMES STEERING. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE
SEA COUPLED WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TROPICAL STORM NALGAE WILL PEAK INTENSITY BEFORE
BRUSHING THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYTEM. THE
STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK MORE EQUATORWARD AND SLIGHTLY ACCELERATE. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD AT 30 DEGREES WITH GFS ON THE LEFT AND
WBAR TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO
THE LEFT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE EXTREME POLEWARD PULL OF
WBAR.//
NNNN





T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1000.7mb/ 39.0kt

[euro6208]

another devastating and strong typhoon headed for the island of Luzon, Philippines...

ecmwf has a very small, very powerful typhoon skirting northern luzon then into the south china sea.

based on images i've seen in this thread which shows a pinhole eye and still nalgae has a nice defined eye, i would estimate the intensity at 90 knots 1 minute winds. dvorak estimates are severely underestimating this system because of its very small size...it reach its 1st peak intensity earlier with that pinhole eye at 110 knots!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!





They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[dexterlabio]

I'll be with JMA on this. 45kts on a 10-min average looks reasonable for Nalgae right now, mainly because of the eye feature. Quite similar with Hurricane Julia last year.

I don't know if it is just me but the initial stage of Megi is somewhat similar to Nalgae, having limited convective outflow on the western periphery but excellent on the eastern portions. You know, I'm having thoughts popping out of nowhere seeing this system. I guess the outflow on the northeast portion of Nalgae could turn into feeder band that would aid for a rampant intensification, just like Megi.



Weird thought of mine, isn't it? Sorry for that.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

Hmm I guess no pinhole eye yet, or will not form one. It is still forming a decent, round eye.

[euro6208]

hmm they do look the same but nalgae is of course weaker

nalgae is so small, the forecast has her entire circulation in between luzon and taiwan.

time will tell...

[Typhoon Hunter]

another devastating and strong typhoon headed for the island of Luzon, Philippines...

ecmwf has a very small, very powerful typhoon skirting northern luzon then into the south china sea.

based on images i've seen in this thread which shows a pinhole eye and still nalgae has a nice defined eye, i would estimate the intensity at 90 knots 1 minute winds. dvorak estimates are severely underestimating this system because of its very small size...it reach its 1st peak intensity earlier with that pinhole eye at 110 knots!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

You're saying you think this already peaked at 110kts?! Please could you provide some basis to that claim other than fact Nalgae displayed an "eyelike" feature for a few hours on visible imagery (which no long is evident.) Microwave imagery shows not even a halfway closed off eyewall yet.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Whats interesting is the cold surge moving south out of china on the 2nd, that is likely why there is that dip to the south on the long range forecast, and if that surge gets any stronger the storm could go farther south. But I think the main thing is that it takes away any chance of re-curvature with this storm.

[phwxenthusiast]

well i'll be damned... it has an eyewall!!

[euro6208]

WTPN33 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 136.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 136.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.2N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.1N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.1N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.1N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.1N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.6N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.3N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 135.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 905 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280353Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY.
A 280105Z ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN SIDES OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI AND TRMM IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 KNOTS IN ADDITION TO THE ASCAT PASS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN AREA OF DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN TO SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE EAST REMAIN FAVORABLE. TS
22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, TS 22W SHOULD STEADILY BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN TRANSLATION SPEED. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE
TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE INITIAL 36
HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE TRACK SPEEDS DIFFER AS EGRR AND ECMWF ARE
FORECASTING FASTER TRACK SPEEDS WITH A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 20W
(NESAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

wow that is a nice eye and eyewall. clearly rapid intensification there...nalgae is certainly stronger than what every dvorak estimate is telling us. this isn't a 40 knot tropical storm like what jtwc is saying. this is a TYPHOON!. it really is frustrating without no recon

They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RobWESTPACWX]

My forecast for today, a lot going on with two tropicals but also a pretty strong low off of Japan, on top that a pending cold surge as well.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaeDNCLWp0c[/youtube]