WPAC: INVEST 90W

[dexterlabio]

Another invest...fresh from NRL...

near 5.0N-140.0E
90WINVEST.15kts N/A mb (?)



I think this is the huge area of convection south of Nalgae...and the latest ECM run shows an area of low pressure, probably a TD, edging close to Luzon then turning north towards Taiwan, this probably could be it...

Personally, further development of this invest is something no one ever wished to come, with the hyperactivity in the WPAC has been showing in just a span of 1 week...

[StormingB81]

JTWC now has it as Low:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.3N 138.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER. A 282307Z
SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A LACK OF A DISTINCT LLCC. AN EARLIER
OCEANSAT IMAGE AT 281418Z INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED BUT WEAK
CIRCULATION WITH 05-10 KNOT WINDS. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
YAP AND KOROR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 10-15
KNOT WINDS AND SLP VALUES RANGING FROM 1006.2 MB TO 1007.5 MB WITH
24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF 1 TO 1.5 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[climateconcern23]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N
138.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YAP, MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION AROUND A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULTAION CENTER (LLCC). A 291150Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALED THE
LLCC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH TY 22W. SURFACE REPORTS FROM PALAU (PTRO) HAVE SHOWN
STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND 3 MB 24 HR PRESSURE FALLS WHILE
YAP (PTYA) IS REPORTING GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLIES WITH 2 MB 24 HR
PRESSURE FALLS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT REVEAL CLEAR ORGANIZATION
YET, BUT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS INDICATES
THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS INCREASING AND PERSISTING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

-JTWC

[euro6208]

ecmwf doesn't develop this anymore ...

[phwxenthusiast]

as much as I am a weather enthusiast, i really hope 90W doesn't develop anymore... let the region, Philippines specifically, rest for awhile; imagine being hit by two Majors in a week...

[dexterlabio]

Euro shows a closed system developing around Thursday-Saturday this week, and maybe this is not it. Well, it's just the first run showing that, if they become consistent for 2-3 runs then it could pan out.

I don't think this area of low pressure can survive against the strong wind shear as of now.

[dexterlabio]

JTWC has it dissipated. Bit of good news.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N
133.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[dexterlabio]

Back from the dead.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.6N 133.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANZIED CONVECTION
AROUND A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
040000Z PGTW STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS A SMALL ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM AND WELL DEVELOPED SOUTHWESTERLIES FEEDING
INTO THE GRADIENT LEVEL. THE LLCC EXISTS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 30 TO 31 DEGREE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A 032347Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS LITTLE
CURVATURE OR ORGANZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html
Visible satellite loop shows quite good cyclonic spin near the area. I'm surprised that Euro was in fact showing a tropical system developing out of it but keeping it very weak in the previous runs, but the latest 00z run shows a more pronounced but still a weak system.

[euro6208]

looks fairly organized but ecmwf has this only as a weak low pressure area and that's it...dissipate over luzon...

TXPQ25 KNES 040319
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 04/0301Z

C. 10.4N

D. 133.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS... GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT IS BASED ON CONSENSUS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N
133.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE AROUND A FULLY EXPOSED YET WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 042335Z SSMIS IMAGE
REVEALS SOME CURVATURE BUT LITTLE ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A 050022Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL LLCC WITH WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE LLCC EXISTS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IN AN AREA
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 29 TO 30 DEGREE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRAIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CHANNELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[dexterlabio]

I'm impressed with its persistence, in the first place it was not supposed to survive given the poor environment around it. A nice naked swirl is all I can say, but for now the future is all hers to take. lol.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I am also surprised about this and it's persistence. Still think its chances are slim though.

[euro6208]

over the philippines but looks quite organized. i don't think this will develop.. such a massive area of very deep convection...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
120.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 119.2E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY LARGE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
MULTIPLE FRAGMENTED SPIRALING RAINBANDS. A 081407Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATES 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A
081818Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS BACK OVER THE WARM
COASTAL WATERS (28 DEGREES CELSIUS) OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS LIGHT AT 10-15 KNOTS AND THE RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS
WELL INTACT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO THE RE-EMERGENCE OF THE LLCC OVER WARM WATERS AND
CONTINUED GOOD OUTFLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.