ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[O Town]

Yippy, another 24 hr. rain event. Glad the sump pump is still in the drainage barrel. Hopefully this won't be as bad as 93L

[Evil Jeremy]

Anyone else seeing something going on around 23N and 86W?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Intense convection and cold cloud tops associated with the area of disturbed weather. Not
a tropical storm, but will likely have similar effects in some areas tomorrow...

[Florida1118]

Per TWC for my area...:

Tuesdays Forecast:
Windy with rain and a few thunderstorms likely. A few storms may contain very heavy rain, especially in the afternoon. A few storms may be Severe. High 78. Winds SSE at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90%. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected.

Tuesday Night:
Windy with showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms may be severe. Storms could contain damaging winds. Low 75. Winds SSW at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Rainfall possibly over 1 inch.

[Evil Jeremy]

It might have been a news spin, but according to the local FOX station, Tampa area schools might not be open tomorrow because of this event.

There's a new, concentrated burst of convention at 23N and 86W, where I thought I saw some rotation an hour ago. Am I seeing things?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

[Florida1118]

It might have been a news spin, but according to the local FOX station, Tampa area schools might not be open tomorrow because of this event.

There's a new, concentrated burst of convention at 23N and 86W, where I thought I saw some rotation an hour ago. Am I seeing things?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

I heard of this too. I believe Hillsborough County Schools called their students families, BUT it was probably out of the unknown of if this would be Rina...thats my guess anyway. It would be werid for Districs to cancel on short notice for this, its even a Tropical System. The only time the really close schools is if they need them for shelter space...

[fci]

I'm sorry, but in my opinion; closing schools for this is a bit excessive.

[CrazyC83]

Name or no name, this could be a dangerous storm.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm sorry, but in my opinion; closing schools for this is a bit excessive.

All that matters is how windy it will be. If the buses can't run safely, no school.

[CrazyC83]

I'm sorry, but in my opinion; closing schools for this is a bit excessive.

All that matters is how windy it will be. If the buses can't run safely, no school.

For school buses, I would say cancel them at sustained winds of about 35 mph or gusts of about 50 mph.

[tampastorm]

It might have been a news spin, but according to the local FOX station, Tampa area schools might not be open tomorrow because of this event.

There's a new, concentrated burst of convention at 23N and 86W, where I thought I saw some rotation an hour ago. Am I seeing things?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

Don't think you are seeing things. For now I see it also.

[psyclone]

this thing is tenacious if anything. it has consistently been bursting deep convection for close to 48 hours. if that continues there's going to be some very heavy rains over portions of florida tomorrow. i can't imagine schools being cancelled though. i wouldn't be surprised if the heaviest weather came though central florida after school is out for the day anyway. overall, this should be a fun weather event to watch unfold. hopefully it doesn't pull a Don and poof at the last minute...but you never know.

[boca]

Is this thing only down to the mid levels.Wow theirs a spin and to me looks like a tropical storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

[psyclone]

wow look at the diameter of that red and black IR in that loop! that has to be some torrential rainfall over a big area.

[Sanibel]

Hardly anything here (yet). Good thing it isn't co-located cause tell you the truth this thing is showing all the signs.

[Evil Jeremy]

Is this thing only down to the mid levels.Wow theirs a spin and to me looks like a tropical storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

I'm seeing it to. Then again, it looked like there was some spin last night, before 95L spat out that LLC this morning. It's not impossible for a storm to spin up before it hits Florida, but time is running out.

[Florida1118]

I'm sorry, but in my opinion; closing schools for this is a bit excessive.

I agree. Its really no different than the other rainy/windy days we've had here.

[CronkPSU]

I'm sorry, but in my opinion; closing schools for this is a bit excessive.

I agree. Its really no different than the other rainy/windy days we've had here.

as a parent, we get screwed with no snow days, i have no problem getting a day off of work for the potential tropical system!

seriously though, in this day and age of lawsuits, you can not leave yourself open if something DOES happen

[tobol.7uno]

It does seem to be forming in a new location further east beneath the deep convection... Anyway here is my forecast based on the actual position of the invest.

[CronkPSU]

latest models? what did the gfs say?