ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[tobol.7uno]

Look at the satellite estimated rain in the area! And also that swirl seen on the infrared satellite. The other swirl where the invest was earlier appears to be gone.

[Florida1118]

I'm sorry, but in my opinion; closing schools for this is a bit excessive.

I agree. Its really no different than the other rainy/windy days we've had here.

as a parent, we get screwed with no snow days, i have no problem getting a day off of work for the potential tropical system!

seriously though, in this day and age of lawsuits, you can not leave yourself open if something DOES happen

I'd love to have tomorrow; Im a Highschool Student. But I mean, in terms of safety, busses dont flip in 30mph wind. It will be difficult being they are high profile, but we've had this weather before it shouldnt be a shocking development. And the school system have verrryyy good Lawyers. Not many beat that team lol. But seriously, Its their call.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Convection looks very impressive. I can't tell if there is a Center of Circulation, but I am willing to bet
that that intensity of storms will contain TS Force winds (a system does not have to
be a tropical storm to produce TS Winds)...
I do think a good chunk of central and south FL will see squalls with 25-35 mph winds
gusting to 50 mph in stronger cells...

[CronkPSU]

I'd love to have tomorrow; Im a Highschool Student. But I mean, in terms of safety, busses dont flip in 30mph wind. It will be difficult being they are high profile, but we've had this weather before it shouldnt be a shocking development. And the school system have verrryyy good Lawyers. Not many beat that team lol. But seriously, Its their call.

from everything i have seen, they do a good job of settling out of court, they hate the negative attention...i think they were just leaving the door open in case we had any serious development tonight

[psyclone]

the school kids better have their homework done... and remember to take their umbrellas tomorrow.

[Evil Jeremy]

Downgraded to 20%, code yellow. I actually think (with my amateur eyes) that 95L is looking better now than about 12 hours ago. I still (think I) see rotation on the western side of the blob:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rgb.html

[tobol.7uno]

Downgraded to 20%, code yellow. I actually think (with my amateur eyes) that 95L is looking better now than about 12 hours ago. I still (think I) see rotation on the western side of the blob:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rgb.html

I hate to contradict the National Hurricane Center, but I see exactly what you see.

[tobol.7uno]

Here is a link to the closer up loop...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html
And a link to a very close up image...


We will be able to tell what is really going on when the sun comes up and we get some visible images of the area.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Planning on going into work early today so I can get home early. If there is any water rise out of this, that could cause issues because of the timing with high tide late this afternoon. Many people live on the barrier islands and neighborhoods that either flood badly or get trapped if the water rises even 3 ft. Evacs could be called if they expect that to come in right at high tide. That may be why the schools were debating. That plus nobody wants there kids waiting for a bus or returning home with tree branches flying around. Little kids especially are quite scared in storms, and the timing may be bad for some of them getting home. Also, if evacs do get called, many schools are shelters for the folks in the lowest lying areas in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties.
At this point, evacs do look excessive, but things could change very quickly. If the storm goes in just north of Tampa, there could be flooding issues.

[Nimbus]

I was kind of hoping it might come in south of the Tampa bay area. The winds on the north side of the storm probably won't exceed tropical storm strength even in gusts so there wouldn't be a lot of power outages north of the storms landfall.

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD...ELONGATED...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DECREASED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH LATER
TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE
SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

So far most of the models think it will go south of Tampa, but not by much. NAM is slower and puts it further north, GFS is faster and takes it in south of us.

South of us would be best case to keep coastal flooding at a minimum.

High tides in my area are at about 7:30pm tonight and then the bigger high tide at 4:30 tomorrow morning. It's that one that I am personally worried about if the storm takes its time (NAM scenario). That would be impacted by the wind driven water on our beaches and then the front's strong winds from the west north west.

May luck out with timing though and the worst may occur at low tide tonight between those two.
Or even this afternoon at low tide or before the first high tide at least. That case would be the fast GFS solution and be further south, so minimal impacts locally besides rain.

A southern path will also reduce our chances for severe storms due to increased air stability. Northern path, especially if we get some sun today before it all moves in, would cause more instability to spread up to here and cause more severe storms and increased tornado chances.

[caneman]

Winds are 35 sustained and 40 in gust. You can see an LLC in the visible. This should be upgraded to a TD. Why they downgraded to code yellow once again overnight is beyond me.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

[wxman57]

Don't focus on the weak, elongated low center as far as the impact of the disturbance - there's nothing at the center (no squalls, lighter winds). Instead, just look at where the squalls are on satellite and radar. They're heading across the southern half of the Peninsula. There won't be any water rise except from rainfall, as winds ahead of the disturbance are blowing from the southeast (offshore) along the entire western peninsula all the way to the panhandle. And the winds are only 20-30 mph on average, no different than you'd see ahead of any approaching cold front. The main threat remains just heavy rainfall today and tonight, causing localized street flooding.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Its pouring here in my area. It rained the whole day yesterday and now today...

[otowntiger]

The main threat remains just heavy rainfall today and tonight, causing localized street flooding.
Don't focus on the weak, elongated low center as far as the impact of the disturbance - there's nothing at the center (no squalls, lighter winds). Instead, just look at where the squalls are on satellite and radar. They're heading across the southern half of the Peninsula. There won't be any water rise except from rainfall, as winds ahead of the disturbance are blowing from the southeast (offshore) along the entire western peninsula all the way to the panhandle. And the winds are only 20-30 mph on average, no different than you'd see ahead of any approaching cold front. The main threat remains just heavy rainfall today and tonight, causing localized street flooding.

Our local mets disagree in that they say there is a decent tornado threat here in Central Florida. I know this not strictly because of 95L but it in combo with the approaching front is looking to stir things up around here. They were also suggesting that inland winds could be pretty high in general in and around this event.

[linkerweather]

The severe or tornado threat is there but will hinge on some potential instability. That seems to be a wildcard in the forecast. Also, there are some pretty strong southerly winds aloft which could translate down to the surface later in the day along the west coast. So, it is possible for some minor coastal issues but not a main concern.

[psyclone]

a good strong winter cold front would provide more a bigger water issue at the coast than this will since those are usually preceded by strong southerly winds that veer to the southwest before frontal passage. we have no such set up with this system. in fact, based on the current shape and trajectory of the convective mass, it would appear the heaviest action is destined to remain south of sarasota on the west coast. we'll see if this changes during the course of the day.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

Our local mets disagree in that they say there is a decent tornado threat here in Central Florida. I know this not strictly because of 95L but it in combo with the approaching front is looking to stir things up around here. They were also suggesting that inland winds could be pretty high in general in and around this event.

Most of the effects of the disturbance will pass to your south. There could be a few isolated severe storms with the cold front passage this evening, but I wouldn't expect any major tornado outbreak. And, yes, the winds behind the front will be much stronger than anything produced by the disturbance.

[VeniceInlet]

I'm a half mile inland from Venice Inlet and right now we have intermittent spitting rain and not even a hint of breeze. Didn't accumulate any rain overnight. Not sure what the day's going to bring but this seems awfully overhyped to me. School closings? LOL. Dona bay looks normal at this point.