WPAC: NYATOH - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: NYATOH - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:46 am

It's been 20 days since the last posted invest (but there were low pressure areas mentioned by the JMA). Looks like the basin is trying to wake up again (or at least going by the models), the question is would it fail again just like the previous attempts or it would really wake up this time.
93W INVEST 211126 0600 8.3N 156.4E WPAC 15 0

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Sat Dec 04, 2021 2:12 am, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:50 am

Models are developing this around the Marianas, a scenario the models were insisting in their previous attempts but it didn't pan out. Would this time be another failure or finally becoming real?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:25 am

Already low chance
ABPW10 PGTW 260730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/260730Z-270600ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3N
156.4E, APPROXIMATELY 752 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
PASS DEPICT A TROPICAL WAVE WITH WINDS 15-20 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY HIGH (30-35KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
NVGM, CMC, GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL
WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE IN THE VICINITY OF
GUAM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots: https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#4 Postby aspen » Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:15 pm

Models still show development in a few days. Perhaps 93W has a chance to end this abnormally long MH drought.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:27 pm

Up to medium
ABPW10 PGTW 280130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/280130Z-280600ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.3N 152.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 232
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 272101Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DISJOINTED PATCH OF
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TROPICAL WAVE. A PARTIAL
2341Z ACSAT-B IMAGE REVEALS 15-20KT WINDS NORTH OF THE WAVE CUSP
WHILE ASLO REVEALING SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND AS OF YET THERE IS NO CLEAR LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (05-
15KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. WHILE THERE IS NO CLOSED ISOBAR OR CLOSED LLC AT THIS TIME,
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CUSP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION IN
THE 24 HOURS FOLLOWING. 93W WILL GENERALLY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DEVELOP LIKE A HOUSE ON FIRE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots: https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:43 pm

Latest GFS has the storm not recurving. I'm really skeptical of a recurvature especially when most tracks of November-December storms are westward towards the Philippines. But let's see.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots: https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:58 am

TCFA
Image
WTPN21 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 146.0E TO 12.7N 139.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280530Z INDICATES
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 145.5E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.9N 146.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 173
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER, AND DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE LLC. A 280336Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS INCIPIENT LOW-LEVEL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
WITH EXTENSIVE FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM GUAM INDICATE VIGOROUS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 25-30 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OVER THE NEXT ONE TO
TWO DAYS, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND CONSOLIDATION
INTO A DISCRETE LLC WITH A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. HOWEVER, VIGOROUS
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN OVER GUAM DURING THIS PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290600Z.//
NNNN
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots: https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#8 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:08 am

Image

radar
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#9 Postby ManilaTC » Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:21 am

1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.9N 146.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 173
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 272101Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DISJOINTED PATCH OF
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TROPICAL WAVE. A PARTIAL
2341Z ACSAT-B IMAGE REVEALS 15-20KT WINDS NORTH OF THE WAVE CUSP
WHILE ASLO REVEALING SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND AS OF YET THERE IS NO CLEAR LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (0515KTS)
VWS, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. WHILE THERE IS NO CLOSED ISOBAR OR CLOSED LLC AT THIS TIME,
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CUSP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION IN
THE 24 HOURS FOLLOWING. 93W WILL GENERALLY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DEVELOP LIKE A HOUSE ON FIRE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 280600) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

House on fire hah!
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#10 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:01 pm

The HWRF has 93W explode into a mid-920s Cat 4/5 late this week, before interaction with a front starts to rip it apart instead of ventilate it.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#11 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:53 pm

Looks like this has a chance to become something interesting. Next name it Nyatoh which is Meranti's replacement...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#12 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:35 pm

WWJP25 RJTD 290000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 290000.
WARNING VALID 300000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 143E WNW 10 KT.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#13 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:59 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#14 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:29 am

GFS is back on recurve, stall & dissipate scenario followed by a monster low rider.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#15 Postby Weather Dude » Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:38 am

0z HWRF now peaks it in the 950's, rather than the 920's it had on previous runs. It will be interesting to see if this will be able to break the worldwide major storm drought, or if it will fail like the others. Regardless, it's nice to finally have something to track.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 27W

#16 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:33 am

27W.INVEST


Image
TD a
Issued at 2021/11/29 13:15 UTC
Analisys at 11/29 12 UTC
Category TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N11°50′(11.8°)
E141°5′(141.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
Forecast at 11/30 12 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N13°5′(13.1°)
E136°50′(136.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)
Forecast at 12/01 12 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N14°50′(14.8°)
E134°50′(134.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)
Forecast at 12/02 12 UTC
Category STS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N17°20′(17.3°)
E135°30′(135.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 430km(230NM)
Forecast at 12/03 12 UTC
Category STS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N20°50′(20.8°)
E138°30′(138.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 650km(360NM)
Forecast at 12/04 12 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N22°55′(22.9°)
E141°55′(141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 950km(500NM)
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots: https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 27W

#17 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:38 am

Cat 4 peak on 1st warning, seems following the HWRF scenario
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 27W

#18 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 3:43 pm

JMA says depression, JTWC says TS. JMA considers 10-min winds, but I'd bet 10-min winds are also up to 35+ kts now.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 27W

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:57 pm

Glad to see the JTWC revised its peak down as nothing supports a Category 4 peak.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 27W

#20 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 29, 2021 5:39 pm

I can’t recall the last time I’ve seen a peak intensity reduction between the first and second advisories of this magnitude — down 20 kt from the first advisory. This still looks like it has a good shot of ending the anomalous autumn MH drought.
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