WPAC: NYATOH - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:09 pm

WTPQ50 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2121 NYATOH (2121) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 13.0N 139.8E POOR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 14.0N 135.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 020000UTC 15.9N 134.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 030000UTC 19.4N 136.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 040000UTC 22.2N 140.4E 260NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 050000UTC 22.3N 141.8E 360NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:19 pm

This storm looks quite large. It came together fast for such a large system.
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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:42 pm

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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:26 pm

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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:06 pm

Microwave imagery from 18z shows a gigantic dominant outer band. However, IR imagery from the last six hours suggests the convection closest to the LLC is becoming dominant.
Image
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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:16 pm

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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:38 am

JTWC says a typhoon
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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:44 pm

This is quite a large storm. Models seem to be hinting at a loop and head towards the Philippines. But by doing that it may end itself from upwelling cold water.
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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:33 pm

dexterlabio wrote:JTWC says a typhoon


Yes, 1-min winds likely make this a typhoon. JMA is the official RSMC for the West Pacific. They consider only 10-min winds, so it's still officially a tropical storm.
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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:36 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:This is quite a large storm. Models seem to be hinting at a loop and head towards the Philippines. But by doing that it may end itself from upwelling cold water.


It may stall for a bit in 3-4 days as it is briefly blocked by high pressure to the north (and weakens significantly), but it's not heading back to the Philippines.
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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Typhoon

#31 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:28 pm

JMA finally made it officially a typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Typhoon

#32 Postby aspen » Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:34 pm

Nyatoh’s eyewall has been slowly improving. It’s gonna be one big eye if it ever clears.
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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:JTWC says a typhoon


Yes, 1-min winds likely make this a typhoon. JMA is the official RSMC for the West Pacific. They consider only 10-min winds, so it's still officially a tropical storm.



Yes this is noted. :lol: I was just reporting who says what but nothing official.
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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Typhoon

#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:07 am

Image

Likely our first major anywhere since Sam.
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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Typhoon

#35 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:39 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 DEC 2021 Time : 094000 UTC
Lat : 18:00:36 N Lon : 136:06:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 963mb / 92kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.3 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : -26.1C Cloud Region Temp : -76.9C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Typhoon

#36 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:43 am

2021DEC02 101000 5.1 963 92 4.9 5.4 7.0 1.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF -10.23 -79.16 EYE 8 IR 44.4 18.02 -136.14 ARCHER HIM-8 21.7
2021DEC02 104000 5.1 963 92 5.0 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF -7.61 -81.98 EYE 12 IR 44.4 18.08 -136.40 ARCHER HIM-8 21.7
2021DEC02 111000 5.1 963 92 5.0 5.5 7.6 1.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF 3.24 -83.02 EYE 13 IR 68.6 18.06 -136.53 ARCHER HIM-8 21.7
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GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots: https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/

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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Typhoon

#37 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:52 am

JTWC has this at 100 knots, the Major Hurricane/Typhoon drought has finally been broken.
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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Typhoon

#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:17 am

TXPQ23 KNES 021239
TCSWNP

A. 27W (NYATOH)

B. 02/1130Z

C. 18.3N

D. 136.7E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS SURROUNDED CMG AND EMBEDDED IN W RESULTING IN A
DT OF 6.5 AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 0.5. PT AGREES. MET IS 6.0 BASED ON
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT DOES NOT
JUSTIFY BREAKING CONSTRAINTS AT THIS TIME SO FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS
LIMITING CHANGES IN T-NUMBER TO 1 OVER 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NGUYEN
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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Typhoon

#39 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:40 am

Good to know ADT still hasn’t been fixed when it comes to lopsided systems.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 DEC 2021 Time : 154000 UTC
Lat : 19:14:23 N Lon : 136:52:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 930mb / 130kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.6 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : -6.5C Cloud Region Temp : -82.9C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: WPAC: NYATOH - Typhoon

#40 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:41 am

TPPN10 PGTW 021457

A. TYPHOON 27W (NYATOH)

B. 02/1430Z

C. 18.73N

D. 136.93E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5.
MET AND PT YIELD A 6.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0900Z 17.63N 136.22E SSMS


ABRAHAM
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