WPAC: INVEST 91W

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: INVEST 91W

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:56 pm

91W.INVEST

91W INVEST 220123 1800 8.4N 129.6E WPAC 15 1004

WWJP27 RJTD 231800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 06N 130E WNW SLOWLY.

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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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MHC Tracking
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#2 Postby MHC Tracking » Sun Jan 23, 2022 4:51 pm

According to the ECENS, this has a chance at TCG in the South China Sea. GFS has been pretty sporadic with it and a lot depends on how badly the Philippines affect it.
ASCAT earlier today did detect what could be described as a sharp trough imo.
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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:45 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 240100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/240100Z-240600ZJAN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N
129.6E, APPROXIMATELY 246NM NORTHEAST OF THE DAVAO, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232146Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAY SOME ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BEING OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LIMITED TIME OVER WATER BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO MEANS THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!

ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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