WPAC: AERE - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: AERE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:55 am

The Philippine Sea system, that could affect 97W's development
98W.INVEST

98W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.6N.135.5E

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:01 am

06Z EPS, previous 00Z has Euro making it Aere, assuming 97W gets named first.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#3 Postby underthwx » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:21 am

Hayabusa wrote:06Z EPS, previous 00Z has Euro making it Aere, assuming 97W gets named first.
https://i.imgur.com/qltOHRU.png


Hello Hayabusa... Is 98W located to the east of 97W?...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:39 am

underthwx wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:06Z EPS, previous 00Z has Euro making it Aere, assuming 97W gets named first.
https://i.imgur.com/qltOHRU.png


Hello Hayabusa... Is 98W located to the east of 97W?...


Yes. 97W is west of the Philippines while 98W is located east of the Philippines.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#5 Postby underthwx » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:42 am

Hayabusa wrote:
underthwx wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:06Z EPS, previous 00Z has Euro making it Aere, assuming 97W gets named first.
https://i.imgur.com/qltOHRU.png


Hello Hayabusa... Is 98W located to the east of 97W?...


Yes. 97W is west of the Philippines while 98W is located east of the Philippines.


Thankyou for your reply. I read yesterday, on the JTWC website, that 97W is expected to gather strength rather quickly over the South China Sea, is this still the scenario?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:14 pm

underthwx wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
underthwx wrote:
Hello Hayabusa... Is 98W located to the east of 97W?...


Yes. 97W is west of the Philippines while 98W is located east of the Philippines.


Thankyou for your reply. I read yesterday, on the JTWC website, that 97W is expected to gather strength rather quickly over the South China Sea, is this still the scenario?

Is it possible but what I am skeptical about is the high intensity that GFS has been showing although it backed off in the latest runs.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#7 Postby underthwx » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:14 am

Hayabusa wrote:
underthwx wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
Yes. 97W is west of the Philippines while 98W is located east of the Philippines.


Thankyou for your reply. I read yesterday, on the JTWC website, that 97W is expected to gather strength rather quickly over the South China Sea, is this still the scenario?

Is it possible but what I am skeptical about is the high intensity that GFS has been showing although it backed off in the latest runs.


Yes, I agree with you, we shall see
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#8 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jun 29, 2022 6:20 am

Now low
ABPW10 PGTW 291100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/291100Z-300600ZJUN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290251ZJUN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.7N 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 587 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN.
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290801Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OFFSET TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
OF A BROAD, ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY;
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jun 29, 2022 6:23 am

Interesting last two runs from the GFS, looks like a convection cut off from 98W developing into its own TC as 98W moves northward?
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#10 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:26 am

06Z EPS
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#11 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:26 am

Up to medium
ABPW10 PGTW 300330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/300330ZJUN2022-300600ZJUL2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZJUN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 30JUN22 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.4N 115.2E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 300300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.8N 129.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 131.4E, APPROXIMATELY 632 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 292156Z SSIMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICTS A CONVECTIVE BANDING
OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD, ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
A TUTT CELL LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED TO THE WEST
WHICH IS INTRODUCING AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER INVEST 98W,
FURTHER INCREASING INSTABILITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#12 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:00 am

TCFA
Image
WTPN21 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9N 131.6E TO 21.8N 130.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.2N 131.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN
INCREASINGLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ILL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF 98W HAS AIDED IN ITS DEVELOPMENT WITH AN
INCREASE TO THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
TRACKING NORTHWEST AND BECOMING TD STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARDS KADENA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
CONCUR THAT 98W WILL FURTHER DEVELOP ALONG ITS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THEPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010600Z.
//
NNNN
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#13 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Jun 30, 2022 4:46 am

TD by PAGASA.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#14 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:29 am

Unless Chaba can do a miracle and become like its predecessors, 98W's location is more interesting for a chance for a high intensity storm. I know models aren't also hyping it but if I have to pick which part of the WPAC where the chances of a high intensity storm would occur...
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:45 am

Upgraded to 05W
05W FIVE 220630 1200 19.3N 130.9E WPAC 25 1003
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:42 am

WWJP27 RJTD 301200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 301200.
WARNING VALID 011200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 19N 131E NORTH SLOWLY.

Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:57 pm

A. 05W (NONAME)

B. 30/1730Z

C. 19.8N

D. 131.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT TREND. THE PT IS 2.0 AFTER A PATTERN ADJUSTMENT. FT IS
BASED ON PT SINCE THE BANDING FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR CUT AND A PATTERN
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE
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Re: WPAC: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jun 30, 2022 2:32 pm

JMA
WTPQ51 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 19.9N 130.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 011800UTC 23.3N 130.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 021800UTC 28.1N 127.1E 130NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 031800UTC 31.0N 125.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 041800UTC 33.1N 127.6E 280NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: AERE - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:33 pm

Aere. First named storm (on the first day) of July. Though I would've liked if it was named on the last day of June too like Chaba.
WTPQ51 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 20.1N 130.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 24.4N 130.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 030000UTC 27.8N 126.9E 130NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 040000UTC 30.8N 126.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 050000UTC 34.5N 128.9E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 060000UTC 36.6N 131.9E 390NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!

ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: AERE - Post-Tropical

#20 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Jul 10, 2022 1:21 am

This one's a fighter. 13 days since being designated as invest, the remnants of Aere are still being tracked by NRL/JTWC off Hokkaido, Japan. Amazing how the LLCC has survived up to this point despite being exposed through much of Aere's lifetime, not to mention it recently crossed Mainland Japan.
05W AERE 220710 0000 40.9N 142.9E WPAC 30 999


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