WPAC: MEARI - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: MEARI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Aug 08, 2022 10:47 pm

90W INVEST 220809 0000 23.0N 146.0E WPAC 15 0


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Last edited by Hayabusa on Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:20 am

ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZAUG2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.2N
145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. A
090352Z AMSR2 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A POORLY-
ORGANIZED LLC WITH CHAOTIC BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION AND NO
DISCERNIBLE CENTER. A 082330Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A
DEFINED, ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED UNDER A REGION OF DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:23 am

06Z Euro peaks it to almost TS winds
Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:37 am

Now medium, this one looks better than Mulan visibly
ABPW10 PGTW 091530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/091530Z-100600ZAUG2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.2N 145.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY 660NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
A REGION OF SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. A 090837Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING BUT WEAK OVERALL STRUCTURE. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE
SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD
EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM IS FIGHTING THE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RANGES FROM LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH MIXED DEVELOPMENT. ECMWF AND
NAVGEM SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITH 25-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE
GFS SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby zzh » Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:21 pm

:uarrow: Exposed LLCC
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Aug 10, 2022 4:03 am

Since 00Z
TD b
Issued at 2022/08/10 07:10 UTC
Analysis at 08/10 06 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N26°35′ (26.6°)
E139°05′ (139.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 08/11 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°55′ (28.9°)
E136°35′ (136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Forecast for 08/12 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N32°05′ (32.1°)
E136°50′ (136.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Forecast for 08/13 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N36°40′ (36.7°)
E141°20′ (141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Forecast for 08/14 06 UTC
Grade LOW
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N42°25′ (42.4°)
E149°05′ (149.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 09W

#7 Postby Subtrop » Thu Aug 11, 2022 1:44 am

WP, 09, 2022081106, , BEST, 0, 288N, 1358E, 25, 1003, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 135, 55, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, wpC02022 to wp092022,
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 09W

#8 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:23 am

1st warning 60 knots peak :double:
WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110121ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 28.8N 135.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 135.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 29.3N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 31.0N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 32.9N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 35.2N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 40.7N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 44.6N 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 135.9E.
11AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
437 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 110130).//
NNNN


Image

WDPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 28.8N 135.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 437 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOPPY AND
DISORGANIZED ROTATION, WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF CIRCULATION, WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED IN A BROAD ARC TO THE SOUTH OF AN
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS ASSESSED WITH ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WHILE BASED ON A
FULLY EXPOSED LLCC, IT IS BECOMING STEADILY ROPED OUT AND DIFFICULT
TO TRACK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL FIELDS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY LLCC AND A 110624Z SSMIS 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SEEMS TO BEAR THIS OUT, AS IT SHOWED A NASCENT
SECONDARY AREA OF CIRCULATION NEAR 28.1N 137.6E, APPROXIMATELY
110NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY LLCC. ASIDE FROM THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (29-30C) SSTS, AND
MODERATE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ACROSS THE AREA OF THE CIRCULATION IS MODERATE (15-20 KTS),
WHICH IS INHIBITING CONSOLIDATION OF THE CORE FOR THE MOMENT, AND
KEEPING CONVECTION PUSHED TO THE SOUTH. THE PRIMARY LLCC HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY, BUT HAS SLOWED
AND TURNED TO THE WEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND LOOKS TO BE
TURNING SOUTHWARD AS OF THE 0700Z HOUR, WHILE THE LARGER ROTATION
IT IS PART OF CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SECONDARY CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY LLCC
IS ONGOING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THIS SECONDARY
VORTICITY CENTER WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHWARD, WHILE THE PRIMARY
LLCC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OR MOVES EASTWARD, WITH THE TWO AREAS
ULTIMATELY MERGING INTO ONE CONSOLIDATED CORE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. WHILE THIS MERGER AND CONSOLIDATION IS OCCURRING, THE
LARGER ROTATION IN WHICH THESE TWO CIRCULATIONS ARE EMBEDDED, WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AFTER THE CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATES, IT IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR
CENTERED TO THE EAST, MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE IZU PENINSULA PRIOR
TO TAU 48, TRACK THROUGH THE TOKYO METRO AREA, AND THEN REEMERGE
OVER WATER AROUND TAU 60. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE,
WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CORE MEANS THAT
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW THROUGH TAU 12. THE
CONSOLIDATION OF THE CORE AROUND TAU 24 IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE
WITH A REDUCTION IN THE VWS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A REGION UNDER
AN UPPER-LEVEL COL REGION, ALLOWING FOR SOME MARGINAL
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TOWARDS THE
TOKYO REGION AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A 200MB
TROUGH MOVING OVER JAPAN, AND TAP INTO STRONG DIVERGENT EASTWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL OFFSET INCREASING VWS AND ALLOW FOR A
BURST OF INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR TYPHOON STRENGTH, AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES TOKYO. ONCE BACK OVER WATER TD 09W WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF
STRONG WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS, AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRIOR TO
DISSIPATION, EAST OF THE KURILE ISLANDS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH A 105NM SPREAD
AT TAU 48 INCREASING TO WELL OVER 500NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE TIGHT, LIES TO THE
WEST OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE FORECASTED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO POSSIBLE CIRCULATION CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH TD 09W
AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION THIS INTERACTION
WILL CAUSE. THUS THE TRACK LIES ON THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, MOST
CLOSELY TRACKING THE HWRF SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS
MEDIUM DUE TO THE NEAR-TERM UNCERTAINTY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
MIXED, WITH THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATING A PEAK OF 30 KNOTS,
WHILE THE HWRF SOLUTION FORECASTS A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 48 AND
THE CTR1 RAPID INTENSIFICATION AID SHOWING A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS. THE
JTWC FORECAST LIES BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24 BUT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN, BUT BELOW THE AGGRESSIVE HWRF,
THROUGH TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DISSIPATES AFTER TAU 48, THE
JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST, AS IT HINGES IN LARGE PART ON THE
TIMING BETWEEN THE CORE CONSOLIDATION AND 200MB TROUGH INTERACTION.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!

ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 09W

#9 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:20 am

Tokyo may get typhoon-force wind gusts from this system.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 09W

#10 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Aug 11, 2022 11:19 am

Not an ideal situation for Tokyo here. Probably will be a close call on whether or not this can make it to Cat 1 typhoon status but the effects will be the same either way.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 09W

#11 Postby NotoSans » Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:53 pm

Named Meari.
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Re: WPAC: MEARI - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:27 pm

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Re: WPAC: MEARI - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:00 am

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Re: WPAC: MEARI - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:41 am

Meari is now tracking right over Suruga Bay after it passed near Omaezaki, Shizuoka Prefecture. It's fortunate that JTWC's initial forecast of rapid intensification did not materialize, as Suruga Bay is prone to damaging storm surges from stronger / more organized TCs.

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al78
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Re: WPAC: MEARI - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby al78 » Sat Aug 13, 2022 6:17 am

Looks like the inital JTWC forecasts bust with the intensity, which is fortunate for Tokyo. Was at first forecast to be 60 kts sustained at landfall, now only a tropical depression. I imagine Tokyo will get a fair bit of rain from the system though.
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