WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:48 pm

97W INVEST 220926 0000 15.0N 137.0E WPAC 15 0


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Last edited by Hayabusa on Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:31 am, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:01 pm

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 14N 137E ALMOST STATIONARY.

18Z ensembles
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:31 am

06Z
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:32 am

Now low
ABPW10 PGTW 261400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/261400Z-270600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260752ZSEP2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260751ZSEP2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 26SEP22 0600Z, TYPHOON 18W (NORU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N
116.9E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 260900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 26SEP22 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 19W (KULAP) WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.9N 142.5E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS.
SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 260900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0N
136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 487 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 260936Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOW DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY HIGH (30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND MEDIUM (15-
25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 97W WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AND
CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#5 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:19 am

Where exactly is 97W located? I don't see a highlighted area as of yet on JTWC
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#6 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:21 am

underthwx wrote:Where exactly is 97W located? I don't see a highlighted area as of yet on JTWC


Just to the east of the Philippines.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#7 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:24 am

Iceresistance wrote:
underthwx wrote:Where exactly is 97W located? I don't see a highlighted area as of yet on JTWC


Just to the east of the Philippines.


Thanks Ice, any ideas as to motion, or possible development scenarios?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#8 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:30 am

underthwx wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
underthwx wrote:Where exactly is 97W located? I don't see a highlighted area as of yet on JTWC


Just to the east of the Philippines.


Thanks Ice, any ideas as to motion, or possible development scenarios?


May head towards the Ryukyu Islands, could be a weak, very sheared TS, models are very consistent to this outcome.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:51 am

Medium
ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270152ZSEP2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151ZSEP2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 27SEP22 0000Z, TYPHOON 18W (NORU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N
112.2E, APPROXIMATELY 513 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 270300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 27SEP22 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 19W (KULAP) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 28.0N 141.9E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH OF IWO TO, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 270300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.0N 136.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 537 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 270432Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOW A BROAD AND ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE AREA. AN EARLIER 270030Z ASCAT-B
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS, A BROADER ONE TO
THE SOUTH AND A SMALLER ONE TO THE NORTH. THE BEST TRACK POSITION HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO FIT WITHIN THE CENTROID BETWEEN THESE TWO
CIRCULATIONS. THE SAME FEATURES CAN BE SEEN WITHIN THE MSI, WITH A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CAN BE SEEN
PEAKING FROM BENEATH THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE INVEST IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ZESTY (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THOUGH SHEAR HAS BEEN ON THE RISE, A LOOK AT THE
850MB VORTICITY CHART SHOWS PLENTY OF PVA TO POSSIBLY FIGHT OFF THE
RISE OF SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W
WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#10 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:24 pm

WWJP27 RJTD 271800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 271800.
WARNING VALID 281800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 19N 134E NW 10 KT.


Image

WTPN21 PGTW 272130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9N 133.9E TO 24.6N 131.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 272100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 133.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.9N 134.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 536NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 271644Z ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM. THERE IS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LOW (10-15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
282130Z.
//
NNNN
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#11 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:55 pm

TD c
Issued at 2022/09/28 01:30 UTC

Analysis at 09/28 00 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°05′ (21.1°)
E132°30′ (132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: 20W - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:16 am

Image
WDPN33 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 21.9N 132.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 366 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) HAS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
PREVIOUS 12 HOURS WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION FIRING PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTHERN SECTORS OF THE
CIRCULATION, THOUGH IT REMAINS DISORGANIZED IS NOT EVIDENCED TO BE
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS OF YET.
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE INITIAL POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE USING SPIRAL BAND ANALYSIS OF
THE OUTER LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES SEEN TO BE WRAPPING INTO THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AGENCY FIX
INTENSITIES BASED ON AN EARLIER 280124Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS WHICH
SHOWED A LARGE REGION OF 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY A 280300Z SHIP OBSERVATION, JUST 20NM FROM
THE 0600Z POSITION, REGISTERED A 1003MB PRESSURE AND WINDS OF 32
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (0-5
KNOTS) VWS, MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF
THE SYSTEM AND WARM SSTS. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR AT PRESENT IS
THE DISORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 20W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS, REACH THE AXIS
OF THE STEERING RIDGE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THEN TURN SHARPLY
NORTHEAST AND THE STR FLATTENS AND ELONGATES TO A MORE EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION. ONCE THE SYSTEM CAN CONSOLIDATE A SOLID CORE, A PERIOD
OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF WARM
SSTS, LOW SHEAR AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH PEAK
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 36. BY TAU 48, A 500MB MINOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE JAPANESE ISLANDS AND LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF TOKYO, ALONG THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM LEFT IN THE WAKE OF WHAT IS NOW
TY 19W. THE UPPER TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC LOW WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND
QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON A RELATIVELY FLAT
TRAJECTORY, LEAVING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED TO NORTH OF TD 20W.
THE ONSET OF INCREASING SHEAR AROUND TAU 48 WILL MARK THE BEGINNING
OF AN INITIALLY SLOW WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 72 HOWEVER THE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND BEGIN TO IMPART
STRONGLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM, LEADING
TO A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING PHASE. AS A NOW SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER
AND SHALLOWER SYSTEM, TD 20W WILL BUTT HEADS WITH MODERATELY STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK FURTHER
POLEWARD MOVEMENT. AS THE BAROCLINIC HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY, AND WILL PUSH TD 20W OFF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THOUGH TAU 48 WITH A 110NM SPREAD BETWEEN THE NAVGEM ON
THE WEST AND GFS ON THE EAST. AFTER THIS POINT HOWEVER, THINGS GET
ROUGH. AT THE TAU 72 POINT, THE MODELS BEGIN TO SEPARATE SHARPLY. AT
TAU 72, THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN THE NAVGEM AND JGSM TO THE
WEST AND THE EGRR AND GALWEM TO THE EAST EXCEEDS 350NM. BY TAU 96
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM AND EGRR
STARTS TO SHOW THE TURN TO THE WEST, CONTINUING THROUGH TAU 120.
HOWEVER, THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE SHARPNESS AND STARTING POINT OF
THE TURN, LEADING TO A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BAY TAU
120. THE JGSM AND HWRF LIE ON THE FAR WEST OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MARKS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODELS THAT SUPPORT
THE TURN, WITH OVER 450NM OF SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE TWO OUTLIERS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GFS, JGSM, NAVGEM, COAMPS-TC, ECMWF ENSEMBLE
AND THE CONSENSUS MEAN LIE EQUALLY SPREAD WITHIN THIS 450NM
ENVELOPE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES TO THE INSIDE AND SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS MEAN TO TAU 72, THEN MOST CLOSELY TRACKS
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TO THE END OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM UP TO TAU 72 AND LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND
TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND THE ULTIMATE IMPACT THESE WILL
HAVE ON THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 TO 48, THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY
THEREAFTER. CTCX IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, PEAKING THE SYSTEM
AT 52 KNOTS AT TAU 36, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS
LIE IN A TIGHT ENVELOPE WITH A PEAK BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS. THE JTWC
FORECAST LIES ALONG THE MEAN, WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK, THEN
FOLLOWS THE MEAN DURING THE WEAKENING PHASE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS
IF THE SYSTEM CAN QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE, A FASTER PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION AND HIGHER PEAK IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!

ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: ROKE - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:35 am

WTPQ52 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2218 ROKE (2218) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 23.0N 131.7E POOR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 290000UTC 24.4N 131.3E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 291200UTC 25.9N 132.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 301200UTC 28.2N 135.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 011200UTC 29.8N 138.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 021200UTC 30.2N 139.0E 260NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 031200UTC 30.4N 139.6E 360NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!

ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Meow
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Re: WPAC: ROKE - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby Meow » Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:38 am

Forming an eye now

Image
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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: ROKE - Typhoon

#15 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:01 am

T2218(Roke)
Issued at 2022/09/29 12:45 UTC
Analysis at 09/29 12 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N26°35′ (26.6°)
E133°05′ (133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 55 km (30 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NE220 km (120 NM)
SW165 km (90 NM)
Forecast for 09/30 00 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°55′ (27.9°)
E135°20′ (135.3°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 09/30 12 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°10′ (29.2°)
E138°25′ (138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 165 km (90 NM)
Forecast for 10/01 12 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N31°25′ (31.4°)
E144°00′ (144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 230 km (125 NM)
Forecast for 10/02 12 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°20′ (33.3°)
E148°35′ (148.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 300 km (160 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 350 km (190 NM)
Forecast for 10/03 12 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°55′ (33.9°)
E149°20′ (149.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 540 km (290 NM)
Forecast for 10/04 12 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N36°40′ (36.7°)
E152°40′ (152.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 650 km (360 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!

ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: ROKE - Typhoon

#16 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:49 am

20W ROKE 220929 1200 26.7N 133.1E WPAC 85 975
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!

ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

jiminluv
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Re: WPAC: ROKE - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby jiminluv » Sat Oct 01, 2022 6:50 am

This chat is so silent, while we're having probably our second hybrid TC in West Pac this season. Quite surprising why are y'all losing focus on a rare phenomena in WNP basin.

GFS, and MW clearly depicts that Roke is a hybrid TC, albeit only structurally. and even there, it's clinging to hybridity due to it hanging on the southern end of subtropical jet and our only proof that it's embedded, aside from the GFS run, is the fact that it's moving parallel to the jet with >15kts.Image
Image
ENERGETICALLY tho, the storm is still PURELY tropical as CBs are occurring in the west side of the storm than on east side, hence is stronger on the former side. Nonetheless, it's still quite rare, aside from Roke and Kulap of 2022 season, it's hard to name other ones, or is it just because I'm a relatively new tracker?Image
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