WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

94W INVEST 240804 0600 19.2N 144.6E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 050600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 24N 141E NORTH SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

Medium

ABPW10 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/052100Z-060600ZAUG2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.0N 134.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 131.6E, APPROXIMATELY 244 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. THE MONSOON GYRE EVENT CONTINUES TO
THRIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA WITH INVEST 91W HANGING ON
AS THE ANCHOR POINT OF A VERY LARGE CYCLONIC ROTATION THAT IS
STARTING TO CONDENSE, WITH A DIAMETER NOW SLIGHTLY HEDGED OVER
1200NM. INVEST 91W IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA THEN START ITS TREK
EASTWARD, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SOME ELEVATED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AS INVEST 93W SLIDES DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE AND BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO 91W. OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO, THIS GYRE WILL
CONTINUOUSLY PUMP OUT ASYMMETRICAL CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY IN A BAND OF ELEVATED, NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS, SUCH AS INVEST 94W CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE
FAR SOUTH-EASTERN CORNER OF THE GYRE CIRCULATION. ANY OF THE NOW AND
FUTURE SMALL CIRCULATIONS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE
WRAPPING UP AND AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GYRE OR MERGING INTO
THE LARGER ANCHOR CIRCULATION. MULTIPLE INVEST AREAS WILL POP-UP AND
DISAPPEAR DURING THIS EVENT, BUT DUE TO POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE
MODELS IN THIS SCENARIO, JTWC WILL BE IN A MORE REACTIVE MODE,
OPENING AND CLOSING INVESTS AS THE AVAILABLE DATA REVEALS THEIR
EXISTENCE. ACROSS THE SPAN OF THE GYRE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY
FAVORABLE WITH WARM SSTS, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LOW
SHEAR, BUT THE ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT WILL VARY BASED ON THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THE INVEST AREAS WITHIN THE GYRE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.6N
140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 655 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED AND OFFSET NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051607Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, POORLY ORGANIZED BUT DEFINED LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA THAT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL
TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
190 NM RADIUS OF 26.5N 140.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 140.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26.3N 141.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 106
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF IWO-TO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC),
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 060601Z
TMS (TROPICS) 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLC. SURFACE WINDS FROM
IWO-TO INDICATE STEADY WEST-SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH A SLP VALUE NEAR 1001 MB AND A 2 MB SLP DECREASE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK
WITH STEADY CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070900Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

TD a
Issued at 2024/08/06 13:20 UTC
Analysis at 08/06 12 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N26°00′ (26.0°)
E141°00′ (141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 08/07 12 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°20′ (26.3°)
E142°25′ (142.4°)
Direction and speed of movement E Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 08/08 12 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°25′ (29.4°)
E144°25′ (144.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 08/09 12 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°05′ (33.1°)
E145°40′ (145.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Forecast for 08/10 12 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N36°05′ (36.1°)
E145°55′ (145.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Forecast for 08/11 12 UTC
Grade LOW
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N39°30′ (39.5°)
E147°30′ (147.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 25.1N 141.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 24 NM NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM THAT FORMED ALONG THE OUTER EASTERN RIM OF A
MONSOON GYRE. FORMATIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES, ARE FEEDING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS OBSCURED BY AN ELONGATED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
STRIATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGES BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE LOW TO THE NORTH ANCHORED JUST EAST
OF JAPAN. THE SAME STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROVIDING EXCELLENT
POLEWARD VENTILATION TO THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED MICROWAVE LLCC FEATURE IN
THE 062041Z SSMIS IMAGE SUITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
IMPROVED 6-HR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST, MODERATE VWS, AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
CIMSS DPRINT: 31 KTS AT 070000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD
AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST ASSUMES
STEERING. AFTER TAU 96, IT WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT CRESTS AND
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55KTS BY TAU 72 ON ITS CLOSEST LINE OF
APPROACH TO YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, APPROXIMATELY 285NM TO THE WEST.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, COOLING SST, AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, TD 06W WILL BE
REDUCED TO 30KTS AS IT APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
A FIRST WARNING, GRADUALLY AND EVENLY SPREADING OUT TO A MERE 155NM
BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE MAIN PACK SPREADS OUT TO 160NM WITH
NOTABLE ALONG-TRACK VARIANCES, HOWEVER. GFS IS THE SOLE
LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER AFTER TAU 72, SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM
THE MAIN PACK BY 45 DEGREES TOWARD MISAWA. IN VIEW OF THESE, AND
GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1821224610987495776

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1821250874980647321

[Hurricane2022]

06W is the most beautiful 35-kt storm I've seen since ESCS Biparjoy last year

[cycloneye]

T2405(Maria)
Issued at 2024/08/07 19:20 UTC
Analysis at 08/07 18 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°40′ (25.7°)
E142°35′ (142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area SE220 km (120 NM)
NW165 km (90 NM)

[cycloneye]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1821307809780171063

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1821337656229327195

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1821337656229327195

That must be a really unusual track, right? Almost looks like the 1938 New England hurricane, Sandy or Fiona, hitting heads-on at places that typically only get recurves.

[cycloneye]

Organizing fast.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1821705950107201583

[Ed_2001]

The global and hurricane models are now confident on Maria turning towards an east to west track as the ridge builds to the north, with a very rare impact into Honshu north of Tokyo possibly as a typhoon. Can’t say I’ve ever seen a track like that into Japan at such a high latitude. Right now the SST’s east of Honshu are extremely warm relative to average.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1821984780247814435

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/KeviShader/status/1822574988852953480

[Hurricane2022]

Satellite imagery of Severe Tropical Storm Maria reaching Japan...

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