WPAC: INVEST 96W

[Hayabusa]

Weeks long anticipated tropical development

96W INVEST 241214 0000 7.8N 143.3E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

GFS makes this a significant typhoon as it hovers on the waters east of Visayas/Mindanao before striking it

[dexterlabio]

Yeah it's Rai all over again, hope the weaker Euro solution transpires

[Hayabusa]

00Z

[Hayabusa]

06Z eps

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 141430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/141430Z-150600ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.8N
138.4E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140848Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH A POORLY ORGANIZED WIND FIELD.
FURTHERMORE, A 141211Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B IMAGE EMPHASIZES THE WEAK NATURE OF
96W WITH NO EVIDENT CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW (10-15 KNOT), GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE NEAR SOUTHERN
MINDANAO. THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT,
CONSOLIDATED LLCC AT THIS TIME WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

GFS continues with a significant TC because of the stalling while Euro no stalling so minimal development until South China Sea.

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2N
130.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160127Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE REVEALS
AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC SURFACE CIRCULATION, WITH 15-20KT WINDS
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W
IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, BETWEEN 29C AND 30 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND
CONSOLIDATE NEAR SOUTHERN MINDANAO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.9S 160.8E HAS TRANSITIONED INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL, COLD-CORE
LOW AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

HFAS 1st run

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W) //
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.3N 127.2E TO 9.1N 127.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.4N 127.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.3N 127.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR)
AND A 160937Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING THROUGHOUT
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 161310Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE REVEALS A
INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC AND INTENSIFYING SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHILE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29C
AND 30 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171500Z.
//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Latest GFS now significantly weaker before landfall

[underthwx]

GFS makes this a significant typhoon as it hovers on the waters east of Visayas/Mindanao before striking it

That's not good news.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS has largely backed off too. Looks like the other models showing barely anything should have been an indicator.

Could be quite a huge rainmaker for VisMin nonetheless.

[Hayabusa]

JMA TD 00Z

WWJP27 RJTD 170000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 06N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Hayabusa]

TCFA cancelled, down to medium, JMA remains TD.

WTPN21 PGTW 181300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171451ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 171500). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 128.3E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM NORTHEAST OF DAVAO.
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 180910Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH SHALLOW,
FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW
AND LAND INTERACTION OFFSET BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD, THEN VEER SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
MINDANAO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

WWJP27 RJTD 181200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 09N 128E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Hayabusa]

Back to TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 181930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3N 127.7E TO 10.4N 125.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 127.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.8N 128.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM
NORTHEAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING REDEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LAST GOOD SCATTEROMETER PASS WAS NEARLY
24 HOURS AGO, AND THE ONLY DATA AVAILABLE WAS A PARTIAL 181330Z ASCAT-C
PASS WHICH SHOWED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE
ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. WINDS WERE LIGHT IN THE SCATTEROMETER PASS,
BUT THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THE EAST SIDE AND NOT CAPTURED BY
THE SCATTEROMETER PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 96W
IS NOW IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, GOING FROM
STRAIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE RELAXED FLOW PATTERN,
ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO ESTABLISH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE VORTEX
REMAINS TILTED HOWEVER, AT LEAST AT THE MOMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE COAST OF MINDANAO.
THE LIMITED TIME OVER WATER AND VORTEX MISALIGNMENT WILL RESULT IN SLOW
CONSOLIDATION, AS DEPICTED IN BOTH THE ECEPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MODELS
WHICH ALSO INDICATE SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF 96W AND THE WESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191930Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

JMA 18Z, up to warning but still not gale (TC) warning yet

WWJP27 RJTD 181800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 09.5N 128.3E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.