WPAC: WIPHA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MrJamesCosgrove/status/1946161440747892770

[Hayabusa]

JTWC finally upgrades

09W WIPHA 250718 1200 19.3N 122.5E WPAC 35 991

[cycloneye]

[sasha_B]

First JTWC satellite fix is 3.0/3.0 and remarks note rapid strengthening:

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .70 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
BROKE CONSTRAINTS OF MORE THAN 0.5 T# CHANGE PER 6 HOURS DUE TO
RAPID STRENGTHENING. INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE
DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.

[sasha_B]

As of 18z, the latest manual Dvorak fixes are 3.5 from JTWC and 3.0 from NOAA/OSPO, while ADT is up to 2.9 (constrained) with recent raw T #s between 3.3～3.6. Best Track is 45 knots, 984 hPa. So far, at least, Wipha has been intensifying more quickly than was forecast.

09W WIPHA 250718 1800 19.8N 120.8E WPAC 45 984

[cycloneye]

A. 09W (WIPHA)

B. 18/2330Z

C. 20.3N

D. 119.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...POSITION BASED IN PART ON RECENT SSMIS DATA THAT SHOWED A
BANDING EYE AT 37 GHZ. 8/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. PT AGREES. MET
IS ALSO 3.5 BASED ON A 24 HOUR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

18/2210Z 20.3N 119.9E SSMIS


...TURK

[cycloneye]

[mrbagyo]

HKO is sending reconnaissance mission into Wipha. Just read about it from TYboard ( Chinese wx forum)

Checked flightradar and yes they really did

[mrbagyo]

Vortical hot towers rotating around the district LLC

[Hurricane2022]

HKO is sending reconnaissance mission into Wipha. Just read about it from TYboard ( Chinese wx forum)

Checked flightradar and yes they really did
https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bKiqA.jpg

Any recent data from this? Did the aircraft penetrated the "eye"?

[mrbagyo]

As posted on the other forum,

The plane only circled the outer rain bands, no gale force wind was measured. No center fix

[StormWeather]

As posted on the other forum,

The plane only circled the outer rain bands, no gale force wind was measured. No center fix

It’s a shame the JTWC doesn’t do recon here anymore, as recon would be a good way to resolve the intensities of all of those monstrous super typhoons and weaker storms too.

[cycloneye]

No mention of plane at discussion.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 21.0N 117.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 210 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN CURVED
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
(TS) 09W (WIPHA). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSIGNED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE SUPPORTED BY A 191235Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KTS IS ALSO LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE,
BASED ON A SYNTHESIS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
MULTIPLE AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND PRODUCTS,
INCLUDING THE ABOVE-MENTIONED ASCAT DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (29-30 C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), ABUNDANT TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE, AS
WELL AS AN ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY, INDICATIVE OF ROBUST UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC DIVERGENCE. THESE
POSITIVE PARAMETERS ARE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG
(20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).

[mrbagyo]

HKO upgrades Wipha into typhoon status

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/mscuyugan/status/1946617389887713502

[sasha_B]

NOAA-OSPO has a 4.0 manual Dvorak fix; ADT is 3.8/4.1 with raw T#s higher because of a (possibly dubious) eye scene. JTWC satellite bulletin holds it at 3.5. Either way, the data support at least holding intensity at 55 kts / 976 hPa on the next advisories, if not going up slightly.