WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

[cycloneye]

04W SINLAKU 260413 0000 12.2N 148.9E WPAC 155 897

[Guamphoon]

We are starting to see the eyewall on Guam NEXRAD Radar. I assume with the distance this is the very top of the clouds.

[cycloneye]

https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/pgua/

[Subtrop]

Max:160/890

WP, 04, 2026041218, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1495E, 160, 890, ST, 34, NEQ, 240, 180, 185, 180, 1006, 460, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, SINLAKU, D,
WP, 04, 2026041218, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1495E, 160, 890, ST, 50, NEQ, 85, 90, 105, 100, 1006, 460, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, SINLAKU, D,
WP, 04, 2026041218, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1495E, 160, 890, ST, 64, NEQ, 45, 50, 30, 35, 1006, 460, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, SINLAKU, D,

[Guamphoon]

Looking South Along the Marianas

[Hurricane2022]

Max:160/890

WP, 04, 2026041218, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1495E, 160, 890, ST, 34, NEQ, 240, 180, 185, 180, 1006, 460, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, SINLAKU, D,
WP, 04, 2026041218, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1495E, 160, 890, ST, 50, NEQ, 85, 90, 105, 100, 1006, 460, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, SINLAKU, D,
WP, 04, 2026041218, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1495E, 160, 890, ST, 64, NEQ, 45, 50, 30, 35, 1006, 460, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, SINLAKU, D,

Some JTWC guys might have looked at some Twitter/S2k posts recently

[ElectricStorm]

What an absolute monster this is... Only April and this could already potentially be the strongest storm of the entire year

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2043503443835588665

 https://x.com/i/status/2043507784143270387

[Yellow Evan]

https://i.imgur.com/2fZRPB9.gif

Starting to notice the bursting we typically see with ERCs.

What a run nevertheless. Has a strong case unofficially for the strongest cold season WPAC TC in the IR era.

Interesting. How do you define cold season in this context?

December through April.

[sasha_B]

So, subjective DT is down to 7.0 as far as I can tell (though we'll see what JTWC has for their 0300z bulletin), but ironically adj. ADT has started to rebound over the past couple of hours from 7.2 to 7.4. CI is still 7.5 based on FT7.0+0.5. I would say that the JTWC's BT point for 0z is pretty much accurate as of 04z; Sinlaku has clearly begun to decline from its peak. Current intensity 150～155 kt and 897～903, would be my guess.

It does look like there could be an EWRC in progress, though I don't have the experience to recognise those with much confidence. Could just be deterioration due to a no-longer-optimal environment.

[Hayabusa]

Eye temp is warming and cloud tops cooling again, let's see if it persists

2026APR13 060000 7.4 902.5 152.0 7.2 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 19.08 -76.64 EYE 18 IR 78.6 12.65 -148.04 ARCHER HIM-9 17.1
2026APR13 063000 7.3 905.9 149.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 19.03 -76.45 EYE 17 IR 78.6 12.69 -147.99 ARCHER HIM-9 17.1
2026APR13 070000 7.3 905.9 149.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 18.57 -77.12 EYE 18 IR 78.6 12.73 -147.96 ARCHER HIM-9 17.1
2026APR13 073000 7.3 905.9 149.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 19.34 -77.03 EYE 18 IR 78.6 12.78 -147.88 ARCHER HIM-9 17.1
2026APR13 081000 7.3 905.9 149.0 7.2 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 19.82 -78.21 EYE 18 IR 68.2 12.82 -147.83 ARCHER HIM-9 17.2
2026APR13 083000 7.3 905.9 149.0 7.2 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 20.86 -78.36 EYE 18 IR 68.2 12.83 -147.77 ARCHER HIM-9 17.1
2026APR13 090000 7.3 905.9 149.0 7.2 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 20.50 -78.15 EYE 17 IR 66.5 12.85 -147.72 ARCHER HIM-9 17.1

[mrbagyo]

What are the lowest recorded land based barometric readings for both Saipan and Tinian.

For Saipan, I'm only aware of Dr. Mark Lander's 921.7 hPa reading for Yutu.

[Guamphoon]

Mild Storm Surge already affecting Guam this afternoon.

This was shared on social media today.

https://youtube.com/shorts/LYimGmCJ7t8

Probably 20 some hours before closest point of approach. This is crazy.

[Hurricane2022]

It would be so fun to see a Bolaven 2.0 (with the islands missing the worst) coming out of this ""failed"" ERC...

[cycloneye]

That long awaited ERC did not materialized and look what we have on the doorsteps of the islands.

[Hurricane2022]

Intensifying again I guess

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/l6OAEFD.gif
Intensifying again I guess

Was it an eyewall meld/merger?

[Hayabusa]

Back to 7.5

TPPN10 PGTW 131149

A. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)

B. 13/1130Z

C. 13.00N

D. 147.42E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T7.5/7.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.5.
MET YIELDS 7.5. PT YIELDS 7.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/0749Z 12.77N 147.88E SSMS


THOMPSON

[Guamphoon]

Sinlaku approaching the Marianas

[cycloneye]

04W SINLAKU 260413 1200 13.1N 147.4E WPAC 150 903