WPAC: RAGASA - Typhoon

[cycloneye]

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 24W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL WEAKEN, ALLOWING THE
STORM TRACK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER TAU 48. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD OVER SEVERAL WARM-CORE EDDIES EAST OF
LUZON. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED FAVORABLY BY A JET
TO THE NORTH AND LINEAR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH OF LUZON, TY 24W WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 125KTS. AFTER TAU 48, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASE AND THE WATER COLUMN WILL BECOME SHALLOWER. AS TY 24W
TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OF HONG KONG, MACAO, CHINA, AND VIETNAM,
UPWELLING OF COOL WATER WILL DRIVE THE WEAKENING TREND GRADUALLY.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TY 24W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS.
THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120 IS 150NM. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
HAS SLIGHTLY LARGER UNCERTAINTY. NOTABLY, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
SIGNAL OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) BT THE JTWC RI AIDS. HAFS-A
AND HWRF, BOTH LEAN ON THE HIGHER END OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS, AND
PEAK AT 125KTS. GFS IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AT 115KTS, AND COAMPS-TC
PEAKS AT 100KTS. GIVEN THE REALISTIC PROBABILITY OF RI WITH THE
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE OCEAN-COUPLED MODELS, THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES CLOSELY TO HAFS-A AND HWRF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Breaking News= Ragasa up to cat 3

24W RAGASA 250920 1200 17.2N 128.7E WPAC 100 957

[mrbagyo]

James Reynolds (Storm2k username: TyphoonHunter) has already prepositioned himself in BATAN Island in Batanes.

That's not a cheap flight lol
 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1969249279089795491




edit: they're in Batan island not Sabtang

[StormWeather]

Breaking News= Ragasa up to cat 3

24W RAGASA 250920 1200 17.2N 128.7E WPAC 100 957

Welp, looks like it’s time for this thing to blow up.

[StormWeather]

JTWC now expects a Super Typhoon out of Ragasa, and is now forecasting a 135 kt peak.

WTPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 128.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 128.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.0N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.8N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.4N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.0N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.1N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.3N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.6N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 128.4E.
20SEP25. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201200Z IS
957 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
25W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[StormWeather]

https://i.imgur.com/rSHOfIC.gif

Don’t do it Ragasa. Don’t pinhole.

[StormWeather]

Some funny points in the Prognostic Discussion on Ragasa.

Rapid intensification aids continue to trigger within the JTWC SHIPS guidance well above the mesoscale and global model solutions, which seem somewhat out to lunch.
Somehow, HWRF, GFS, and COAMPS-TC have suddenly calculated a swift weakening within the first 12 to 24 hours which is not realistic to the current environment. Thus, the JTWC guidance remains above consensus closer to the rapid intensification aids.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/zoom_earth/status/1969418414264393950

[cycloneye]

Recon also for Ragasa is needed as this one will affect landmasses. and Neoguri will stay in open waters.

[mrbagyo]

Drifting buoy recorded a mslp of 993 hpa while being about 123 kilometers from the center

[mrbagyo]

They're all converging in Batanes to chase Ragasa
 https://x.com/OreboundImages/status/1969251928686145563

[Hayabusa]

Euro AI 12z striking into Hong Kong

[cycloneye]

Yikes!.

24W RAGASA 250920 1800 17.8N 127.9E WPAC 115 937

[cycloneye]

A. 24W (RAGASA)

B. 20/1730Z

C. 17.7N

D. 127.7E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY

H. REMARKS...AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LG
RESULTS IN AN ENO OF 5.0 AND AN EADJ OF +0.5 GIVING A CF OF 5.5. AS THERE
IS NO ADDITION OF A BF THE DT IS 5.5. THE MET IS 5.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS
5.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT. OF NOTE IS THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
BANDING FEATURE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL FEATURE. NO BANDING FEATURE
IS ADDED TO THE CLASSIFICATION AS THE MET IS LOWER THAN THE CF WHILE
USING EIR IMAGERY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[cycloneye]

Signal 1 for northern Phillippines.

[TomballEd]

Almost 20,000 people live in the Babuyan Islands and it looks like Ragasa/Nando has wobbled due westward.

[cycloneye]

Cat 5 as peak where all the chasers are converging in the small islands.