WPAC: MULAN - Tropical Storm

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: MULAN - Tropical Storm

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:38 am

Philippine Sea system
97W.INVEST

97W.INVEST.15kts.0mb.12N.129E

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:24 am, edited 2 times in total.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#2 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Aug 03, 2022 8:40 pm

This will probably be more interesting than Songda, Trases, and 8W but probably still won't be able to get very strong, which is fine since it's a definite land threat.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:49 am

ABPW10 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051400Z-060600ZAUG2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.5N
121.0E, APPROXIMATELY 7.0 NM SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050824Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT
FLARING CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MANILA REPORT 10 KT
WINDS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL
MEANDER WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#4 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:37 pm

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 16N 118E WEST SLOWLY.

ABPW10 PGTW 060200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/060200Z-060600ZAUG2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.5N 121.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 119.2E, APPROXIMATELY 116 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 0521200 SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A LOOSELY MAINTAINED
CIRCULATION AS IT TRACKED OVER LUZON AND HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA, WHERE IT IS NOW CONSOLIDATING AND DEEPENING. SURFACE REPORTS FROM
MANILA AND THE SUBIC BAY AREA SHOW WINDS BACKING AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TRACKS OVER THE BATAAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS INDICATE
AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND BROAD TURNING IN THE WIND FIELDS OVER
THE SCS AND THE CONVECTION IS DEEPENING AND SHOWING INCREASING
ORGANIZATION. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL
CONTINUE ITS TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE SCS. STRONG
NORTHEASTERLIES IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE ARE IMPEDING DEVELOPMENT BUT
THERE IS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KT) IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM, WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY DUE TO
THE SEASONAL SOUTHWESTERLIES, AND BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED INVEST 97W TO MEDIUM.
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:58 am

TD a
Issued at 2022/08/08 07:30 UTC
Analysis at 08/08 06 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°00′ (15.0°)
E111°05′ (111.1°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 08/09 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°00′ (18.0°)
E113°00′ (113.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Forecast for 08/10 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°20′ (20.3°)
E110°20′ (110.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Forecast for 08/11 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°35′ (21.6°)
E106°55′ (106.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Forecast for 08/12 06 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°50′ (20.8°)
E102°10′ (102.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Aug 08, 2022 10:06 am

Image
WTPN21 PGTW 081400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7N 112.9E TO 20.4N 112.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 112.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.3N 112.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 112.9E, APPROXIMATELY 384
NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD, DISORGANIZED MONSOON DEPRESSION IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WHICH IS STEADILY CONSOLIDATING. THE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) WAS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TO BE GREATER THAN 150NM,
BUT A 081200Z SHIP OBSERVATION OF 32 KNOTS APPROXIMATELY 110NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST SUGGESTS THE RMW HAS STARTED TO SHRINK DOWN, APPROACHING THE
TRANSITION POINT TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A 081031Z 91GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE REVEALED MULTIPLE WEST-EAST AND NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDS BUT AS OF YET NO DISTINCT CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
MEANWHILE, ANIMATED EIR AND MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST A SECONDARY
CIRCULATION CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR 17.5N 118.0E, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY MOVE WESTWARD AND MERGE WITH 97W AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BROADER REGION INDICATE A VERY BROAD WIND
FIELD WITH WINDS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS, EXTENDING IN A BAND TO THE NORTH
AS FAR AS 20N AND TO THE SOUTH TO NEAR 10N. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VWS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR DEVELOPMENT, YET A
REGION OF UNFAVORABLE SHEAR (20-30KT) STRETCHING FROM HAINAN TO THE
LUZON STRAIT, AND THE SLOW RATE OF CONSOLIDATION ARE PROVING TO BE
STIFF BARRIERS TO MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH 97W WILL MAINTAIN A
BROAD WIND FIELD AS IT STARTS ITS NORTHERLY TRACK, MERGE WITH THE
VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST AND CONSOLIDATE
JUST ENOUGH BEFORE LANDFALL TO MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A WEAK
TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091400Z.
//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: MULAN - Tropical Storm

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:24 am

I forgot to check this is already Mulan since 06Z, because this storm is soooooooooooo boring

T2207(Mulan)
Issued at 2022/08/09 09:45 UTC
Analysis at 08/09 09 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°55′ (17.9°)
E112°50′ (112.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NE600 km (325 NM)
SW390 km (210 NM)
Forecast for 08/09 21 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°55′ (19.9°)
E111°55′ (111.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
Forecast for 08/10 09 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°35′ (20.6°)
E110°50′ (110.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Forecast for 08/11 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°05′ (21.1°)
E107°20′ (107.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)
Forecast for 08/12 06 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°00′ (21.0°)
E102°05′ (102.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: MULAN - Tropical Storm

#8 Postby NotoSans » Wed Aug 10, 2022 4:58 am

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Re: WPAC: MULAN - Tropical Storm

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:00 am

Cancelled
WTPN21 PGTW 101400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351ZAUG22//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 091400). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.9E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 108.6E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM
DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 100902Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM'S BROAD
CENTER WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED 200-300NM TO
THE EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING BACH LONGVI, 60NM SOUTHWEST
OF THE CURRENT POSITION, INDICATE 5-15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS HAVE DEGRADED WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. INTERACTION WITH
LAND IS ALSO HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE MONSOON
DEPRESSION WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MAKING LANDFALL
OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST
AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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