WPAC: NORU - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

Noru is a perfect example as to why the JTWC/JMA should have intermediate/special advisories like the NHC. In situations like this with a RI'ing system very close to land, intensity estimates and warnings need to be updated sooner than the typical 6-hour advisories. This is still stuck at 75 kt from the JTWC for a few more hours, but it already looks like a Cat 4, far exceeding the highest forecast intensity from 12z. A special advisory also means there'll be less of a massive jump between standard advisory intensities. If they did one now and put Noru at 100-110 kt, then they can upgrade it to a Cat 4 at 18z, and it wouldn't be as massive of a jump.

[underthwx]

Noru is a perfect example as to why the JTWC/JMA should have intermediate/special advisories like the NHC. In situations like this with a RI'ing system very close to land, intensity estimates and warnings need to be updated sooner than the typical 6-hour advisories. This is still stuck at 75 kt from the JTWC for a few more hours, but it already looks like a Cat 4, far exceeding the highest forecast intensity from 12z. A special advisory also means there'll be less of a massive jump between standard advisory intensities. If they did one now and put Noru at 100-110 kt, then they can upgrade it to a Cat 4 at 18z, and it wouldn't be as massive of a jump.
https://i.imgur.com/2W21mnF.jpg

Agree 100% with you Aspen....well said

[KN2731]

WMG eye in W, T7.0. If the CMG ring thickens a little it'll be T7.5 - and we're still 4 hours from sunrise (and about 12 from landfall).

[dexterlabio]

Anyone else getting Goni vibes from this…the SW dive, the compact yet robust structure

[aspen]

WMG eye in W, T7.0. If the CMG ring thickens a little it'll be T7.5 - and we're still 4 hours from sunrise (and about 12 from landfall).
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/627514985764880455/1023293514034982933/unknown.png

The JTWC/JMA are so far behind this it’s not even funny.

[Hayabusa]

TPPN11 PGTW 241844

A. TYPHOON 18W (NORU)

B. 24/1740Z

C. 15.08N

D. 124.78E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF
6.5. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 5.5. CONSTRAINT LIMITED BY FT 1.0
MORE THAN MET. DBO CONSTRAINT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HEINS

WTPQ51 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2216 NORU (2216)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 15.2N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM SOUTHWEST 120NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 250600UTC 15.1N 122.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT

[Hurricane2022]

TPPN11 PGTW 241844

A. TYPHOON 18W (NORU)

B. 24/1740Z

C. 15.08N

D. 124.78E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF
6.5. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 5.5. CONSTRAINT LIMITED BY FT 1.0
MORE THAN MET. DBO CONSTRAINT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HEINS

WTPQ51 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2216 NORU (2216)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 15.2N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM SOUTHWEST 120NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 250600UTC 15.1N 122.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT

JTWC might estimate 100 - 115 KT for 2100Z Warning

[xtyphooncyclonex]

As much as I'd wanna say "leave this to the weather nerds," people's lives are at risk. The more south this goes, the more densely populated the areas are. This is really going to catch people off guard and I can't imagine the Metro going through what we did last December.

If this were OTS I prolly wouldn't be this bothered. But sadly that's not the case. This is no way a 85 kt system...

[Hayabusa]

TXPQ21 KNES 241842
TCSWNP

A. 18W (NORU)

B. 24/1730Z

C. 15.1N

D. 124.8E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY A CMG RING AND EMBEDDED IN W
RESULTS IN A DT OF 6.5 AFTER ADDING AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 0.5. THE MET IS
4.5 BASED ON A 24 HOUR RAPID DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS 5.0. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT JUSTIFYING BREAKING CONTRAINTS LIMITING
THE FT TO A CHANGE IN 1.5 OVER 12 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING

[Hayabusa]

2022SEP24 184000 5.6 954 105 5.6 5.7 7.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.56 -76.60 EYE 11 IR 45.1 15.14 -124.53 ARCHER HIM-8 25.7

[cycloneye]

18W NORU 220924 1800 15.1N 124.7E WPAC 130 930

[REDHurricane]

Terrifying look right now.

[Hayabusa]

18W NORU 220924 1800 15.1N 124.7E WPAC 130 930

So the GFS was right deepening this to 930 mb before it started to back off developing it

Now that's an invest, it's time to not ignore the GFS. Latest GFS 18Z is showing an intense typhoon before a Luzon landfall. Euro was showing development few days ago but it backed off
https://i.imgur.com/cWkVkPA.png

[ElectricStorm]

Absolute nightmare for the Philippines, I don't really see anything preventing this from being a Cat 5 landfall

[doomhaMwx]

12Z estimate was also revised to 90kts from 75kts

18W NORU 220924 1800 15.1N 124.7E WPAC 130 930
18W NORU 220924 1200 15.4N 125.9E WPAC 90 968
18W NORU 220924 0600 15.8N 126.7E WPAC 65 984

[Hayabusa]

Revision

18W NORU 220924 1800 15.1N 124.7E WPAC 135 925

[MarioProtVI]

Link: https://youtu.be/rFeVfwDvTyM

My reaction to Noru the last few hours

[Hayabusa]

Latest warning expecting 145 knots before landfall

[shah83]

Guys, check out the rainfall on the Euro map. A long stretch of fairly heavy rain all the way into Myanmmar.

[FireRat]

Tomorrow might end up being a historic date for the Philippines with this CAT 5 strike upcoming, holy cow!!