WPAC: NORU - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#161 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:47 am

Foxfires wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Can't believe JMA stuck to 95kts/940mb with this one. The only hope now to get a higher peak from them east of PH is when they conduct the post-analysis.


Noru is getting the same treatment applied by JMA to Sty Nina and Rammasun. Lol. CMA's estimate is more reasonable



Unfortunately so. Any chance we'll get direct measurements from the Philippines that will hopefully motivate them to not have it at 940mb? Was it even strong enough when it made landfall?



even if you get a sub-910 hPa reading, JMA wont change it.
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#162 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:51 am

How can Japan, probably the most technologically advanced country in the world, have a meteorological agency similar to the IMD? :lol: :lol:
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#163 Postby underthwx » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:45 am

It's my understanding that NORU underwent the fastest.rapid intensifications ever recorded in the Pacific basin?....
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#164 Postby underthwx » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:58 am

I spoke with my father in law,, he is located in Metro Manila currently, so far so good....NORU is located about 38 NM northeast of Manila, I'm hoping to hear from my brother who is in Baguio
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#165 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:13 am

underthwx wrote:It's my understanding that NORU underwent the fastest.rapid intensifications ever recorded in the Pacific basin?....


Not the fastest, but it's likely in the top 25, that thing just exploded! :eek:
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#166 Postby underthwx » Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:23 am

Iceresistance wrote:
underthwx wrote:It's my understanding that NORU underwent the fastest.rapid intensifications ever recorded in the Pacific basin?....


Not the fastest, but it's likely in the top 25, that thing just exploded! :eek:


The source I read that from was Relief Web....it's really academic considering the power of this cyclone....I will feel relief for my family, and everyone there affected, after NORU and Ian dissipate... Thanks for the reply Ice!
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#167 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:33 am

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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#168 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:25 pm

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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#169 Postby Foxfires » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:59 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
Foxfires wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:
Noru is getting the same treatment applied by JMA to Sty Nina and Rammasun. Lol. CMA's estimate is more reasonable


Unfortunately so. Any chance we'll get direct measurements from the Philippines that will hopefully motivate them to not have it at 940mb? Was it even strong enough when it made landfall?

Unfortunately, surface obs are scarce both in the first and second landfall locations.


That's a shame. Are there no stations at/near those places?
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#170 Postby jiminluv » Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:05 am

Noru is restoring its eye right now, with JTWC maintaining rating from last fix.  https://twitter.com/165thjoyful/status/1574289140665167872



Based on Rule D of forecast intensity, framed by Dvorak, this should start attempts to ramp up again to its prior intensity, albeit not completing it.
[img]
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... wpac_6.png
[/img]
GFS is showing revamp to 938mb before landfall,
Image
With its IR-BD image, it seems RH is enough to support rapid intensification. Image
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#171 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:11 am

This looks like it's bombing out again, probably going to be a Cat 4+ landfall in Vietnam
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#172 Postby jiminluv » Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:15 am

ElectricStorm wrote:This looks like it's bombing out again, probably going to be a Cat 4+ landfall in Vietnam

I'm not that adamant yet on completing the first stage of Rule D, like getting back to 140 or 145 knots due to MW's strcuture vulenrability to dry air intrusion-forced ERC but for sure this would be a major typhoon again. Image
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#173 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:22 am

The storm petrel has landed on Vietnam
 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1574295820999876609


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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#174 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:26 am

JMA 06Z downgraded it to a minimal typhoon
T2216(Noru)
Issued at 2022/09/26 06:40 UTC

Analysis at 09/26 06 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°55′ (15.9°)
E116°55′ (116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 65 km (35 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area SW280 km (150 NM)
NE165 km (90 NM)
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#175 Postby jiminluv » Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:26 am

Hayabusa wrote:JMA 06Z downgraded it to a minimal typhoon
T2216(Noru)
Issued at 2022/09/26 06:40 UTC

Analysis at 09/26 06 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°55′ (15.9°)
E116°55′ (116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 65 km (35 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area SW280 km (150 NM)
NE165 km (90 NM)


Honestly, it should re-intensify from this, if you've seen my earlier posts, there are VHT attempts now around the core.
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#176 Postby jiminluv » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:36 am

VHT action around the core is now in full swing, however the west band remains very cold, an indication that Noru's core is still in the process of maturing.
Image
A paper by Tu et al. 2022 suggests that stratiform convection, or convective activity in the storm's periphery is more intense when the core is weak as it has less tendency to fly towards the center and is instead lifting in its place outside of the core.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22304-y
Tweet link:  https://twitter.com/165thjoyful/status/1574338458944180224


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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#177 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:38 am

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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#178 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:27 am

Core has entered the Paracel radar range
Image
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#179 Postby Highteeld » Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:14 pm

Deep feeder-bands and pinhole eye merging. Not a marginal typhoon anymore.
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#180 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:48 pm

That's a very intense typhoon with a distinct pinhole eye.
Ive never seen a typhoon have a pinhole eye like this in the South China Sea after crossing the Philippines.

There's a developing concentric eyewall by the way.
Image
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