WPAC: NORU - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: NORU - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:32 pm

95W INVEST 220921 0000 17.4N 132.4E WPAC 15 1008


WP, 95, 2022092012, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1311E, 15, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
WP, 95, 2022092018, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1318E, 15, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
WP, 95, 2022092100, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1324E, 15, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,


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Last edited by Hayabusa on Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:24 am, edited 4 times in total.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:01 pm

Now that's an invest, it's time to not ignore the GFS. Latest GFS 18Z is showing an intense typhoon before a Luzon landfall. Euro was showing development few days ago but it backed off
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:28 pm

18Z ensembles
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#4 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:34 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#5 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:26 pm

no closed circulation yet

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:12 am

There's no advisory text for it only a graphic showing low chance
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:26 am

WWJP27 RJTD 210600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 17N 133E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#8 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:02 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:20 am

06Z
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#10 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:50 am

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#11 Postby underthwx » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:33 pm



Not liking the looks of that, I have family near Illio City, in Igbarras
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#12 Postby underthwx » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:47 pm

Unless I'm missing it, I don't see any info on 95W, as of yet on JTWC
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#13 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:52 pm

Image
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.9N
133.4E, APPROXIMATELY 735 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT,
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MEDIUM RADIAL
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#14 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:10 pm

Looks like models are underestimating it
Image
WTPN21 PGTW 212130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 17.6N 133.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 212100Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 134.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.9N 133.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 662 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION WITH LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HIDDEN BENEATH DEEP CONVECTIVE COVER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM (29-30C)
SSTS, LOW (0-05KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MEDIOCRE OUTFLOW DESPITE
HAVING A POINT SOURCE ABOVE IT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE AREA HAS
BEEN ON A STEADY DECLINE ALONG WITH VORTICITY SIGNATURES STEADILY
INCREASING.GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DISARRAY ABOUT 95W. GENERAL CONSENSUS
IS, IT WILL NOT DEVELOP WITHIN THE USUAL TCFA TIMELINE BUT INSTEAD BEYOND
TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT COMPLETELY GOES AGAINST THE
ENVIRONMENT AND WHAT IS CLEARLY DEPICTED ON EIR.
95W IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHILE MEANDERING EAST THEN GUIDANCE
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIGE (STR) FORCES IT ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
222130Z.//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#15 Postby Ed_2001 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:41 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Looks like models are underestimating it
https://i.ibb.co/1bBMD8m/wp9522.gif
WTPN21 PGTW 212130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 17.6N 133.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 212100Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 134.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.9N 133.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 662 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION WITH LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HIDDEN BENEATH DEEP CONVECTIVE COVER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM (29-30C)
SSTS, LOW (0-05KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MEDIOCRE OUTFLOW DESPITE
HAVING A POINT SOURCE ABOVE IT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE AREA HAS
BEEN ON A STEADY DECLINE ALONG WITH VORTICITY SIGNATURES STEADILY
INCREASING.GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DISARRAY ABOUT 95W. GENERAL CONSENSUS
IS, IT WILL NOT DEVELOP WITHIN THE USUAL TCFA TIMELINE BUT INSTEAD BEYOND
TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT COMPLETELY GOES AGAINST THE
ENVIRONMENT AND WHAT IS CLEARLY DEPICTED ON EIR.
95W IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHILE MEANDERING EAST THEN GUIDANCE
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIGE (STR) FORCES IT ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
222130Z.//
NNNN

Yep. Most recent run of gfs doing an especially poor job with initialization, showing 95w as a mere area of disorganized showers.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#16 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:56 pm

Overhyping HWRF isn't excited too.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#17 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:36 pm

Haiyang 2C captured some 25-30 knots wind barb on the southern periphery.

Image


Image
https://www.tybbs.org.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=83786&extra=&page=4
Last edited by mrbagyo on Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: 18W - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:41 pm

18W EIGHTEEN 220922 0000 17.7N 134.7E WPAC 25 1002
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: 18W - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:18 pm

18Z eps
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: 18W - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:47 pm

Image

There's a cargo ship currently passing very near the center of 18W - must be a wild ride (most vessel monitoring sites are pay site - I don't know the name of that vessel)
Image
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