WPAC: NORU - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Hey, I almost forgot we got radar imagery (because the data feed is turned off from the public most of the time)!


 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1573768136029097985

[Hayabusa]

Interesting latest discussion, comparing it to Goni

WDPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 18W (NORU)
WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.1N 124.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 135 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 217 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W HAS UNDERGONE EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(ERI) FROM 45 KNOTS AT 231800Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 135
KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
NEAR SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A SMALL, OBLONG EYE
(5-8NM DIAMETER) WITH SPIRAL BANDING. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, EIR
INDICATES TROCHOIDAL MOTION AS THE SYSTEM TURNS GRADUALLY WESTWARD
AND TRACKS TOWARD DINGALAN BAY. IN GENERAL, STY 18W HAS MAINTAINED
A WARM EYE WITH THE EYE TEMPERATURE VARYING FROM 8.7C TO 16.0C (THE
241950Z EYE TEMPERATURE IS 11.9C) WITH DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM DT6.5 TO DT7.0 (127 TO 140 KNOTS) SINCE ABOUT 241730Z.
THE DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES (BELOW) ARE CONSERVATIVE AND HELD
LOWER DUE TO CONSTRAINTS. ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALSO
CONSERVATIVE WHILE RAW-T NUMBERS HAVE VARIED FROM 6.8 TO 7.0 (135
TO 140 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED ABOVE THE FINAL-T
ESTIMATES BASED ON MULTIPLE, VERY CONSISTENT DVORAK DATA-T
ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE ADT RAW-T VALUES, HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT INTENSITY THUS MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST VALUES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 95 KTS AT 241700Z
CIMSS ADT: 107 KTS AT 241910Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE ERI PHASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 18W BEARS MANY SIMILARITIES TO STY GONI
(2020), WHICH UNDERWENT ERI WHILE TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHERN LUZON, HOWEVER, STY GONI ATTAINED STY STRENGTH TWO DAYS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL SO PEAKED MUCH HIGHER. STY 18W IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 15 TO 18 HOURS WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TAU 12. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL, STY 18W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT CROSSES THE PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS, DOWN TO ABOUT 100 KNOTS BY TAU 36. MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE. AFTER RE-EMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA,
STY 18W IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM NEAR TAU 72.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS BY LANDFALL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 30-40NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH TAU 18, AND AN
80-90NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
THUS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OVER THE PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS AND POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A STEEP DROP IN INTENSITY AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND WITH A RANGE OF 55 (HWRF) TO 85
(COAMPS-TC) KNOTS WITH RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 90-115 KNOTS. THE
241200Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INDICATES A 40 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE TAU 48 TO TAU 60 TIMEFRAME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[aspen]

Interesting latest discussion, comparing it to Goni

WDPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 18W (NORU)
WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.1N 124.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 135 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 217 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W HAS UNDERGONE EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(ERI) FROM 45 KNOTS AT 231800Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 135
KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
NEAR SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A SMALL, OBLONG EYE
(5-8NM DIAMETER) WITH SPIRAL BANDING. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, EIR
INDICATES TROCHOIDAL MOTION AS THE SYSTEM TURNS GRADUALLY WESTWARD
AND TRACKS TOWARD DINGALAN BAY. IN GENERAL, STY 18W HAS MAINTAINED
A WARM EYE WITH THE EYE TEMPERATURE VARYING FROM 8.7C TO 16.0C (THE
241950Z EYE TEMPERATURE IS 11.9C) WITH DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM DT6.5 TO DT7.0 (127 TO 140 KNOTS) SINCE ABOUT 241730Z.
THE DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES (BELOW) ARE CONSERVATIVE AND HELD
LOWER DUE TO CONSTRAINTS. ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALSO
CONSERVATIVE WHILE RAW-T NUMBERS HAVE VARIED FROM 6.8 TO 7.0 (135
TO 140 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED ABOVE THE FINAL-T
ESTIMATES BASED ON MULTIPLE, VERY CONSISTENT DVORAK DATA-T
ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE ADT RAW-T VALUES, HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT INTENSITY THUS MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST VALUES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 95 KTS AT 241700Z
CIMSS ADT: 107 KTS AT 241910Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE ERI PHASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 18W BEARS MANY SIMILARITIES TO STY GONI
(2020), WHICH UNDERWENT ERI WHILE TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHERN LUZON, HOWEVER, STY GONI ATTAINED STY STRENGTH TWO DAYS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL SO PEAKED MUCH HIGHER. STY 18W IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 15 TO 18 HOURS WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TAU 12. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL, STY 18W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT CROSSES THE PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS, DOWN TO ABOUT 100 KNOTS BY TAU 36. MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE. AFTER RE-EMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA,
STY 18W IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM NEAR TAU 72.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS BY LANDFALL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 30-40NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH TAU 18, AND AN
80-90NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
THUS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OVER THE PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS AND POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A STEEP DROP IN INTENSITY AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND WITH A RANGE OF 55 (HWRF) TO 85
(COAMPS-TC) KNOTS WITH RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 90-115 KNOTS. THE
241200Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INDICATES A 40 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE TAU 48 TO TAU 60 TIMEFRAME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

45 kt to 135 kt in 24 hours…that’s probably one of the most significant phases of ERI globally. It’s probably even more significant because this is probably a 145-155 kt Cat 5 now.

[Hayabusa]

TPPN11 PGTW 242135 COR

A. TYPHOON 18W (NORU)

B. 24/1741Z

C. 15.08N

D. 124.78E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D2.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF
6.5. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 5.5. FT RE EVALUATED TO BREAK
CONSTRAINTS TAKING CONTINUED STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF STORM INTO
ACCOUNT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/1705Z 15.18N 124.87E GPMI


HEINS

[ManilaTC]

Honestly, even if I went through Super Typhoon Angela in 1995. Noru scares me. Its about 15-18 hours from us here.

[aspen]

Just wow. Almost certainly a Category 5 already.

[mrbagyo]

one of the scariest eyewall in recent years

[Hayabusa]

HWRF peaking at 147 knots

[mrbagyo]

If Noru scores a direct hit in Metro Manila, it would be the worst since 1970 - basically a Patsy 2.0 given the angle of attack.

Patsy currently holds the wind gust record in Metro Manila - 200kph gust recorded at the airport

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/zeb199818/status/1573807624751001600




VERY WARM eye!

[Subtrop]

TPPN11 PGTW 242142
A. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (NORU)
B. 24/2040Z
C. 14.99N
D. 124.23E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D4.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 6.0. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/1705Z 15.18N 124.87E GPMI
HEINS

[weeniepatrol]

WPAC does it again

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/Weather_Manila/status/1573823054362583040

[doomhaMwx]

PAGASA finally now calls this a supertyphoon.
 https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1573828360207093761

[Iceresistance]

JTWC now has this at 135 knots is expected to peak as a CAT 5!

[Hayabusa]

TPPN11 PGTW 250024

A. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (NORU)

B. 24/2350Z

C. 14.98N

D. 123.67E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 6.0. BROKE CONSTRAINTS DUE TO
INTENSIFICATION. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HEINS

WTPQ51 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2216 NORU (2216)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 15.0N 123.6E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
12HF 251200UTC 15.1N 121.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 260000UTC 16.1N 119.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 270000UTC 15.8N 113.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 280000UTC 15.7N 109.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 290000UTC 15.8N 104.9E 170NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 300000UTC 16.1N 103.1E 240NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Hayabusa]

18W NORU 220925 0000 14.9N 123.6E WPAC 140 919

[doomhaMwx]

Sometimes I feel that CMA will make a better RSMC for the WPAC than JMA.

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 250000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY NORU 2216 (2216) INITIAL TIME 250000 UTC
00HR 15.0N 123.7E 915HPA 62M/S
30KTS WINDS 220KM NORTHEAST
280KM SOUTHEAST
320KM SOUTHWEST
320KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
100KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 60KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
MOVE W 19KM/H
P+12HR 15.2N 121.6E 910HPA 65M/S
P+24HR 15.9N 118.7E 960HPA 40M/S
P+36HR 15.7N 116.3E 955HPA 42M/S
P+48HR 15.5N 113.4E 945HPA 48M/S
P+60HR 15.2N 111.1E 935HPA 52M/S
P+72HR 15.4N 108.8E 945HPA 48M/S
P+96HR 16.1N 105.4E 1002HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

[aspen]

18W NORU 220925 0000 14.9N 123.6E WPAC 140 919

Probably stronger at around 145-150 kt, but hey, at least they actually called this a 5 unlike Nanmadol.

[Ed_2001]

Looks like Noru may have peaked, CDO warming a bit and becoming more lopsided and the eye has cooled somewhat probably due to a combination of shear and land interaction. Still an exceptionally dangerous storm and likely will remain so up to landfall. Noru’s peak was probably somewhere between 18z and 0z.