WPAC: NORU - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#81 Postby underthwx » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:00 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Instincts were right... the earlier runs panning out but worse. Hope this doesn't go even further south. Not gonna rule out a cat 4. Reminds me of tracking that very storm that killed our home given how it's defied and will defy expectations (hint: Rhymes with Kai). Looking like both a rain and wind event.

If there's anything "good", this will move fast and is pretty compact.


That's not good news, referring to intensity, what I would refer to as good news,, is for NORU to pass by quickly. with minimal impacts, It seems to me, as though NORU is stronger than initially expected, upon its approach to the Phillipines....as for the track, it does indeed appear to be shifting Southward with each update. I believe the current projected landfall occurring near Cape Encanto, located in Central Luzon, if I'm correct...so maybe some possible tweaks SWD remain to be seen, prior to NORU's landfall...
Last edited by underthwx on Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#82 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:01 am

TPPN11 PGTW 241501

A. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NORU)

B. 24/1430Z

C. 15.22N

D. 125.46E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.0.
MET YIELDS 5.0 AND PT YIELDS 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


SCOTT

Probably big intensity increase from JTWC at 18Z.
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#83 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:05 am

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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#84 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:17 am

Wow this thing is looking fantastic. Awful news for the Philippines though, probably a Cat 4+ landfall. Hopefully everyone stays safe and prepared
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#85 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:19 am

Did a quick research of past typhoons that moved generally WSW or SW towards the provinces of Quezon, Aurora and Isabela and I only found 2 that somehow resemble that of Noru's

Typhoon Teresa (1994) - tracked WSW towards the Polilio and Quezon Province then passed south of Manila
Nalgae (2011) - WSW towards southern Isabela.


.
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#86 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:29 am

Wow, that’s some explosive intensification.
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#87 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:39 am

Typhoon Express
2022 Total 911 Issues
Central Meteorological Observatory of China Meteorological Administration at 23:21 on September 24th
Time: 23:00 on the 24th
Name: "Aolu", NORU
number: No. 2216
Center location: 15.3 degrees north latitude, 125.4 degrees east longitude
Intensity level : Severe typhoon level
Maximum wind force: Level 15, 48 m/s (about 173 km/h)
central pressure: 945 hPa
Reference position: about 480 kilometers east of Manila, Philippines
Wind circle radius: 180 degrees northeast of the seventh-level wind circle radius km; 200 km southeast; 200 km southwest; 200 km northwest; class 10 wind circle radius: 60 km northeast
; 60 km southeast; 60 km southwest; 60 km northwest;
; 30 kilometers southeast; 30 kilometers southwest; 30 kilometers northwest
Forecast conclusion: "Aolu" will move westward at a speed of about 20 kilometers per hour, and the intensity will gradually increase
(the next update time is 2:00 on the 25th 30 points)


https://www.tybbs.org.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=83786&extra=&page=21
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#88 Postby underthwx » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:41 am

mrbagyo wrote:Typhoon Express
2022 Total 911 Issues
Central Meteorological Observatory of China Meteorological Administration at 23:21 on September 24th
Time: 23:00 on the 24th
Name: "Aolu", NORU
number: No. 2216
Center location: 15.3 degrees north latitude, 125.4 degrees east longitude
Intensity level : Severe typhoon level
Maximum wind force: Level 15, 48 m/s (about 173 km/h)
central pressure: 945 hPa
Reference position: about 480 kilometers east of Manila, Philippines
Wind circle radius: 180 degrees northeast of the seventh-level wind circle radius km; 200 km southeast; 200 km southwest; 200 km northwest; class 10 wind circle radius: 60 km northeast
; 60 km southeast; 60 km southwest; 60 km northwest;
; 30 kilometers southeast; 30 kilometers southwest; 30 kilometers northwest
Forecast conclusion: "Aolu" will move westward at a speed of about 20 kilometers per hour, and the intensity will gradually increase
(the next update time is 2:00 on the 25th 30 points)


https://www.tybbs.org.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=83786&extra=&page=21


Is NORU moving more due West at this point in time?
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#89 Postby Teban54 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:44 am

Holy crap.
Image
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#90 Postby underthwx » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:48 am



For lack of a better description, I agree, with all due respect, I feel that NORU is surprising forecasters in the region, somewhat considerably. NORU looking powerful on this image you provide.
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#91 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:58 am

CMA: 55 m/s peak

Image
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#92 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:01 pm

Amazing how the eye rapidly cleared out after deep convection erupted from the north side and wrapped into the center.

Image
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#93 Postby underthwx » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:03 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Amazing how the eye rapidly cleared out after deep convection erupted from the north side and wrapped into the center.

https://i.imgur.com/ixhZovG.gif


Not liking this at all....
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#94 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:12 pm

2022SEP24 151000 4.6 974 80 4.6 4.6 6.0 MW ON OFF OFF OFF OFF -12.99 -72.40 EYE 9 IR 45.1 15.25 -125.29 ARCHER HIM-8 25.2
2022SEP24 154000 4.6 974 80 4.5 5.0 6.1 MW AdjEnd ON OFF OFF OFF -6.62 -72.36 EYE 11 IR 45.1 15.23 -125.15 ARCHER HIM-8 25.3
2022SEP24 160000 4.7 972 82 4.7 5.7 6.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -1.93 -72.39 EYE 10 IR 45.1 15.20 -125.09 ARCHER HIM-8 25.3
2022SEP24 164000 4.9 968 87 4.9 5.7 6.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 0.84 -72.44 EYE 10 IR 45.1 15.18 -124.98 ARCHER HIM-8 25.4
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#95 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:20 pm

Latest Radar

Image
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#96 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:21 pm

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#97 Postby underthwx » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:23 pm


Do you have the current intensity estimates Hayabusa?
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#98 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:26 pm

I think JTWC has to go with at least 115kts for 18Z, or else, they're going to lag behind even further.
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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#99 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:29 pm

underthwx wrote:

Do you have the current intensity estimates Hayabusa?

Satcon estimate isn't updated yet, current is from 7 hours ago
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09241005
SATCON: MSLP = 970 hPa MSW = 87 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 84.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 95 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 195 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 7.3 knots Source: MW

Member Estimates

ADT: 977 hPa 72 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP240910
CIMSS AMSU: 994 hPa 44 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09231356
ATMS: 978.6 hPa 61.0 knots Date: 09240428
SSMIS: 963.0 hPa 90.0 knots Date: 09241005
CIRA ATMS: 998 hPa 43 knots Date:

AiDT estimate from 1 hour ago
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: NORU - Typhoon

#100 Postby underthwx » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:37 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
underthwx wrote:

Do you have the current intensity estimates Hayabusa?

Satcon estimate isn't updated yet, current is from 7 hours ago
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09241005
SATCON: MSLP = 970 hPa MSW = 87 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 84.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 95 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 195 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 7.3 knots Source: MW

Member Estimates

ADT: 977 hPa 72 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP240910
CIMSS AMSU: 994 hPa 44 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09231356
ATMS: 978.6 hPa 61.0 knots Date: 09240428
SSMIS: 963.0 hPa 90.0 knots Date: 09241005
CIRA ATMS: 998 hPa 43 knots Date:

AiDT estimate from 1 hour ago
https://i.imgur.com/nsXkUqO.jpg


Thankyou!...I greatly appreciate your help with information
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