WPAC: KULAP - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: KULAP - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:46 pm

96W.INVEST

96W INVEST 220922 0000 8.3N 148.2E WPAC 15 0


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Last edited by Hayabusa on Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:25 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:56 pm

Models are all over the place on what to form around the Marianas.
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#3 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:10 am

Image
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:09 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 240130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/240130Z-240600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231952ZSEP2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231951ZSEP2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 23SEP22 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 18W (NORU) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 504 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 232100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) AT 23SEP22 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (TALAS) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 137.2E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 232100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.8N
147.7E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232111Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION
WITH A BROAD, POORLY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST 96W IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH
HAS MAINTAINED EXTENSIVE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES AND SOUTHERLIES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS CHARACTERIZED BY
WARM (29-30C) SST, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN 36-48 HOURS AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
QUICKLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:28 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 241730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/241730Z-250600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZSEP2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 24SEP22 1200Z, TYPHOON 18W (NORU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N
126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 296 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 241500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.8N 147.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 145.7E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 241532Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
BROAD DISORGANIZED CORE. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION EAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS WITH A SWATH OF 25KT WINDS TO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 96W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED EXTENSIVE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES
AND SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS CHARACTERIZED BY
WARM (29-30C) SST, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
24-48 HOURS AS INVEST 96W TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE QUICKLY
INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:38 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 242230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1N 146.5E TO 24.1N 142.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 242200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 146.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.4N 145.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 146.5E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 242055Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH A SOUTHERN FORMATIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LLC.
INVEST 96W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED EXTENSIVE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES AND
SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS CHARACTERIZED
BY WARM (29-30C) SST, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN 24 HOURS AS INVEST 96W TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE QUICKLY
INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252230Z.//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:00 am

TC Warning
Image
TD a
Issued at 2022/09/25 07:25 UTC

Analysis at 09/25 06 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°55′ (19.9°)
E146°25′ (146.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 09/26 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°05′ (24.1°)
E142°10′ (142.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Forecast for 09/27 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°40′ (27.7°)
E140°05′ (140.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Forecast for 09/28 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°20′ (33.3°)
E145°40′ (145.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Forecast for 09/29 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N39°10′ (39.2°)
E157°50′ (157.8°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 50 km/h (28 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
Forecast for 09/30 06 UTC
Grade LOW
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N41°50′ (41.8°)
E168°10′ (168.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 700 km (390 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#8 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:56 pm

19W NINETEEN 220925 1800 22.4N 145.0E WPAC 30 1001
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

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Re: WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Storm

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:26 pm

WTPQ50 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2217 KULAP (2217) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 23.6N 143.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 261200UTC 25.4N 141.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 270000UTC 27.0N 140.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 280000UTC 31.5N 143.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 290000UTC 37.0N 153.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 300000UTC 45.1N 167.2E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW‎ =
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

jiminluv
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Re: WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Storm

#10 Postby jiminluv » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:00 am

A big blob is spotted over Kulap, perhaps a sign of another overperformance as a tropical cyclone. ImageImage
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