WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#361 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu May 25, 2023 8:45 pm

WTPQ30 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 15.1N, 139.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 905HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
115KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#362 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu May 25, 2023 8:53 pm

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#363 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu May 25, 2023 9:00 pm

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#364 Postby sikkar » Thu May 25, 2023 9:08 pm

Top 5 best looking canes. Big relief it's in the middle of no where. Thankfully no deaths in Guam but they have a long road for recovery...
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#365 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu May 25, 2023 9:18 pm

I'm kind of wondering if Mawar would reach 900 mbar or even go sub-900 mbar. Wouldn't surprise me; seems like conditions are exceptionally ripe for this storm. Would be interesting to see if any typhoons later this season can rival or top Mawar in strength.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#366 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu May 25, 2023 9:44 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I'm kind of wondering if Mawar would reach 900 mbar or even go sub-900 mbar. Wouldn't surprise me; seems like conditions are exceptionally ripe for this storm. Would be interesting to see if any typhoons later this season can rival or top Mawar in strength.

It did, they have it at 897 mb
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#367 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu May 25, 2023 9:47 pm

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#368 Postby Hayabusa » Thu May 25, 2023 10:27 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 260322

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)

B. 26/0250Z

C. 15.21N

D. 138.57E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T8.0/8.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. EYE EMBEDDED 80NM IN CDO YIELDS AN
E# OF 7.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND ADDED 0.5 FOR BF TO
YIELD A DT OF 8.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CVACH
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#369 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu May 25, 2023 10:48 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
TPPN10 PGTW 260322

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)

B. 26/0250Z

C. 15.21N

D. 138.57E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T8.0/8.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. EYE EMBEDDED 80NM IN CDO YIELDS AN
E# OF 7.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND ADDED 0.5 FOR BF TO
YIELD A DT OF 8.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CVACH

I thought 8.0 required a full CDG ring like Haiyan and Goni, which Mawar doesn't have. Although I'm not super knowledgeable on Dvorak, I am curious as to how this would qualify as T8.0.

No doubt this is an absolute monster though. 155-160kts is probably about right.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#370 Postby Hayabusa » Thu May 25, 2023 11:07 pm

For 24 hours now, Mawar's average eye temp from ADT is near 20C.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#371 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu May 25, 2023 11:12 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
TPPN10 PGTW 260322

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)

B. 26/0250Z

C. 15.21N

D. 138.57E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T8.0/8.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. EYE EMBEDDED 80NM IN CDO YIELDS AN
E# OF 7.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND ADDED 0.5 FOR BF TO
YIELD A DT OF 8.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CVACH


Very strange analysis. "EYE EMBEDDED 80NM IN CDO YIELDS AN E# OF 7.0." doesn't explain the reasoning behind T8.0 at all.

As much as we want to see strong tropical cyclones, I honestly think it is a bit overzealous of JTWC to analyse Mawar to be 160kt. Pretty much no other indicator other than this strange analysis is supporting anything stronger than 155kt. Subjective Dvorak from different agencies range between T7.0 to T7.5, SATCON and SAR are indicating 150kt recently, ADT and AiDT are fluctuating between 145 and 155kt, D-PRINT and D-MINT are showing 150-155kt as well. If I am to make an educated guess, I would say 155kt is the best estimate for Mawar.
Last edited by TyphoonNara on Thu May 25, 2023 11:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#372 Postby Hayabusa » Thu May 25, 2023 11:13 pm

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#373 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu May 25, 2023 11:21 pm

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#374 Postby dexterlabio » Fri May 26, 2023 12:22 am

TyphoonNara wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
TPPN10 PGTW 260322

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)

B. 26/0250Z

C. 15.21N

D. 138.57E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T8.0/8.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. EYE EMBEDDED 80NM IN CDO YIELDS AN
E# OF 7.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND ADDED 0.5 FOR BF TO
YIELD A DT OF 8.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CVACH


Very strange analysis. "EYE EMBEDDED 80NM IN CDO YIELDS AN E# OF 7.0." doesn't explain the reasoning behind T8.0 at all.

As much as we want to see strong tropical cyclones, I honestly think it is a bit overzealous of JTWC to analyse Mawar to be 160kt. Pretty much no other indicator other than this strange analysis is supporting anything stronger than 155kt. Subjective Dvorak from different agencies range between T7.0 to T7.5, SATCON and SAR are indicating 150kt recently, ADT and AiDT are fluctuating between 145 and 155kt, D-PRINT and D-MINT are showing 150-155kt as well. If I am to make an educated guess, I would say 155kt is the best estimate for Mawar.


I don't think it's a strange analysis since they explained their reason for the adjustment.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#375 Postby R o x » Fri May 26, 2023 12:24 am

Iceresistance wrote:
R o x wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:No 150kts is 175mph sustained, JTWC has gusts to 180kts which is around 205mph


is it really ? that is a world record right ?

Yes, but the world record is from 2015 with Patricia, 215 mph SUSTAINED winds!

It looks like it's been a while since you've been here, welcome back.


Thank you ! Well yea, i'm actually just a lurker, lurking whenever something significant looks to come our way (Taiwan), see what you specialists/hobbyists make of it,
and that hasn't been the case since a few years now !
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#376 Postby Foxfires » Fri May 26, 2023 12:27 am

TyphoonNara wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
TPPN10 PGTW 260322

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)

B. 26/0250Z

C. 15.21N

D. 138.57E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T8.0/8.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. EYE EMBEDDED 80NM IN CDO YIELDS AN
E# OF 7.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND ADDED 0.5 FOR BF TO
YIELD A DT OF 8.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CVACH


Very strange analysis. "EYE EMBEDDED 80NM IN CDO YIELDS AN E# OF 7.0." doesn't explain the reasoning behind T8.0 at all.

As much as we want to see strong tropical cyclones, I honestly think it is a bit overzealous of JTWC to analyse Mawar to be 160kt. Pretty much no other indicator other than this strange analysis is supporting anything stronger than 155kt. Subjective Dvorak from different agencies range between T7.0 to T7.5, SATCON and SAR are indicating 150kt recently, ADT and AiDT are fluctuating between 145 and 155kt, D-PRINT and D-MINT are showing 150-155kt as well. If I am to make an educated guess, I would say 155kt is the best estimate for Mawar.


That's only 5kt away from their estimate. Just the margin of uncertainty.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#377 Postby WAcyclone » Fri May 26, 2023 12:28 am

Image

Can't wait to see the new eye after this EWRC!
Last edited by WAcyclone on Fri May 26, 2023 1:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#378 Postby TyphoonNara » Fri May 26, 2023 12:49 am

dexterlabio wrote:
TyphoonNara wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
TPPN10 PGTW 260322

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)

B. 26/0250Z

C. 15.21N

D. 138.57E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T8.0/8.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. EYE EMBEDDED 80NM IN CDO YIELDS AN
E# OF 7.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND ADDED 0.5 FOR BF TO
YIELD A DT OF 8.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CVACH


Very strange analysis. "EYE EMBEDDED 80NM IN CDO YIELDS AN E# OF 7.0." doesn't explain the reasoning behind T8.0 at all.

As much as we want to see strong tropical cyclones, I honestly think it is a bit overzealous of JTWC to analyse Mawar to be 160kt. Pretty much no other indicator other than this strange analysis is supporting anything stronger than 155kt. Subjective Dvorak from different agencies range between T7.0 to T7.5, SATCON and SAR are indicating 150kt recently, ADT and AiDT are fluctuating between 145 and 155kt, D-PRINT and D-MINT are showing 150-155kt as well. If I am to make an educated guess, I would say 155kt is the best estimate for Mawar.


I don't think it's a strange analysis since they explained their reason for the adjustment.


They explained the adjustments but didn't explain how they get T7.0 before the adjustments in the first place. Usually they will mention something like "WMG eye and W ring (surrounded by CMG) yields 6.0, with a WMG eye adjustment of 1, leading to a final T number of 7.0"
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#379 Postby Hayabusa » Fri May 26, 2023 1:38 am

02W MAWAR 230526 0600 15.3N 137.9E WPAC 160 897

TPPN10 PGTW 260606

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)

B. 26/0053Z

C. 15.28N

D. 138.01E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T8.0/8.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. EYE EMBEDDED 80NM IN CDO YIELDS AN
E# OF 7.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND ADDED 0.5 FOR BF TO
YIELD A DT OF 8.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RAE
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#380 Postby Hayabusa » Fri May 26, 2023 1:40 am

AMSU estimate from 5 hours ago 162 knots
CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR MAWAR (02W) 2023
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 05260147
SATCON: MSLP = 910 hPa MSW = 158 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 153.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 138 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 335 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -1.6 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 912 hPa 149 knots Scene: CDO Date: MAY260430
CIMSS AMSU: 904 hPa 162 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 05260147
ATMS: 913.3 hPa 147.1 knots Date: 05251604
SSMIS: 913.3 hPa 147.1 knots Date: 05251604
CIRA ATMS: hPa knots Date:
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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