WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

HWRF peaks it at 871.5 mb, while winds at 165 knots

[Hayabusa]

Revised 06z

02W MAWAR 230526 0600 15.3N 138.0E WPAC 155 904

[ElectricStorm]

155kts is probably a better estimate than 160 but it's not like it matters that much. I still have no idea how they're getting T8.0 though. No way this is an 8.0

[Hayabusa]

155kts is probably a better estimate than 160 but it's not like it matters that much. I still have no idea how they're getting T8.0 though. No way this is an 8.0

JTWC used the visible eye pattern in determining the DT while KNES used the BD/IR eye pattern, so the latter is not getting a T8.0 it must be surrounded by CDG ring.

TXPQ22 KNES 260625
TCSWNP

A. 02W (MAWAR)

B. 26/0530Z

C. 15.3N

D. 138.0E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T7.0/7.5

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF
7.0 AFTER A +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 7.0 BASED A STEADY TREND OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS. PT AGREES WITH MET AND DT. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NGUYEN

As for why JTWC used the visible eye technique instead of the IR technique, I don't know

[Hayabusa]

09Z used IR, so DT is 7.5 but CI is still held at 8.0

TPPN10 PGTW 260902

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)

B. 26/0830Z

C. 15.42N

D. 137.31E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T7.5/8.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, AND ADDED 0.5 FOR BF, TO
YIELD A DT OF 7.5. MET YIELDS 8.0. PT YIELDS 7.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RAE

[Guamphoon]

Top 5 best looking canes. Big relief it's in the middle of no where. Thankfully no deaths in Guam but they have a long road for recovery...

Unfortunately, that is no longer the case as of today. There are some people missing at sea,

2 men went swimming to a reef island, on Wednesday, at around 2 in the afternoon. It was insane weather let me tell you. After a week of authorities telling everyone to stay out of the water. One made it to the island, the other was swept out.

The first ongoing rescue, which began at 10 a.m. Thursday stems from reports that an 18-year-old and another adult male went swimming toward Alupang Island on Wednesday at around 2 p.m. They reportedly got swept out to sea by large waves north of the island by Rick's Reef, Reilly stated in a message to local media.


"According to the man, he tried, but was unable to pull the other swimmer from the rough waters approximately 30 yards from the island. With the weather deteriorating rapidly, the man decided to remain on the island through the duration of Typhoon Mawar," Reilly said.

The 18-year-old wasn't able to return to shore until Thursday to report the incident, and units were dispatched to conduct shoreline and reef line searches today.

At first light Friday, the search continued, Reilly added.

https://www.postguam.com/news/gfd-searc ... 892c5.html

Alupang Island, for reference, where he apparently spent the storm. Wild.



Its an easy swim in normal times, but that is super exposed in stormy weather.

[Hayabusa]

GFS 06Z peaks at 871 mb

[Hurricane2022]

Im posting this at 10:20 UTC

02W MAWAR 230526 1200 15.6N 136.7E WPAC 150 904

[dexterlabio]

I imagine the current EWRC will be more of an eyewall meld, which usually happens in the upper-echelon tropical cyclones over favorable environment (i.e. Haiyan).

[mrbagyo]

I imagine the current EWRC will be more of an eyewall meld, which usually happens in the upper-echelon tropical cyclones over favorable environment (i.e. Haiyan).

the inner and outer eyewall are so closely spaced that they might just indeed meld together.

[Hayabusa]

02W MAWAR 230526 1200 15.7N 136.6E WPAC 145 904

TPPN10 PGTW 261213

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)

B. 26/1150Z

C. 15.69N

D. 136.49E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T7.5/8.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, AND ADDED 0.5 FOR BF, TO
YIELD A DT OF 7.5. PT YIELDS 7.5. NO MET DUE TO NEW TREND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/0620Z 15.32N 137.82E SSMS
26/0817Z 15.38N 137.38E SSMS
26/0855Z 15.47N 137.35E SSMS


RAE

CCA:

TPPN10 PGTW 261221 COR

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)

B. 26/1151Z

C. 15.69N

D. 136.49E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T7.0/8.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS AN E#
OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, AND ADDED 0.5 FOR BF, TO
YIELD A DT OF 7.0. PT YIELDS 7.5. NO MET DUE TO NEW TREND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/0817Z 15.38N 137.38E SSMS
26/0855Z 15.47N 137.35E SSMS


RAE

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/kosmi64833127/status/1662029599738306560

[InfernoFlameCat]

I think the JTWC is doing good with this storm. They get hate often but never love for when they are doing a good job. Hats off to the JTWC on this one.

[Hayabusa]

It's the NAVGEM but if it comes true, bad news for the Babuyan/Batanes islands, it makes Mawar stationary directly over it for almost 2 days

[aspen]

HWRF peaks it at 871.5 mb, while winds at 165 knots
https://i.imgur.com/lLaTl7m.png
https://i.imgur.com/sIwpCvR.png

It took long enough to get a storm to break the new HWRF lol. I’m doubtful Mawar ever restrengthens with an ongoing EWRC/meld and unfavorable conditions looming on the horizon. It could level out as a 130-140 kt super before entering a more pronounced weakening phase later this weekend.

[canebeard]

https://twitter.com/kosmi64833127/status/1662029599738306560
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxC3GtDXsAA_q_1?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Looks like Freddie Krueger is residing in the eye

[canebeard]

https://twitter.com/kosmi64833127/status/1662029599738306560
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxC3GtDXsAA_q_1?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Looks like Freddie Krueger is residing in the eye

[dexterlabio]

HWRF peaks it at 871.5 mb, while winds at 165 knots
https://i.imgur.com/lLaTl7m.png
https://i.imgur.com/sIwpCvR.png

It took long enough to get a storm to break the new HWRF lol. I’m doubtful Mawar ever restrengthens with an ongoing EWRC/meld and unfavorable conditions looming on the horizon. It could level out as a 130-140 kt super before entering a more pronounced weakening phase later this weekend.

But it is only about to enter the area of highest OHC. Atmospheric conditions, however, will be marginal past 130E longitude as it tracks further westward. Conditions will be very unfavorable once it tracks more poleward/approaches 19N-20N latitude.

With the aid of DMax and conducive environment, I believe Mawar will have another successful EWRC in the next few hours and regain its peak strength, or maybe even set a new peak.

[Yellow Evan]

Given the nuclear eye temperatures on IR and WV, which isn’t something IR Dvorak and ADT take into account, I actually don’t think 170 knots is too far off. We’ve seen these techniques massively underperform with upper elechon storms outside high tropopause environments before and other techniques don’t really have any reputable history with storm’s of this magnitude.

[Sciencerocks]