WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#421 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat May 27, 2023 7:38 am

Mawar’s evolution, or lack thereof, over the last 12 hours has been surprising to me. Given its appearance I would almost think upwelling was responsible if it were stationary. Since it’s not, maybe mid level dry air entrainment is doing it?
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#422 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 27, 2023 7:53 am

Looks like it mixed in some dry air.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#423 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 27, 2023 8:08 am

Still powerful.

02W MAWAR 230527 1200 16.8N 130.9E WPAC 130 928
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#424 Postby R o x » Sat May 27, 2023 9:41 am

MarioProtVI wrote:Models seem to be indicating Taiwan could be in for trouble down the road whether it’s the remnants or Mawar just going straight west into Taiwan as the HWRF is suggesting (after parking just offshore before moving inland shortly after). Could be a big flood problem.


Well as you can see on the below page there are some reservoirs esp those in the south that can do with some water ...
https://fhy-wra-gov-tw.translate.goog/fhyv2/monitor/reservoir?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#425 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 27, 2023 10:22 am

WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR
031//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 16.8N 130.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 607 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 52 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
MATURE AND HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM OF TIGHTLY WRAPPING DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A LARGE (25NM) EYE. VIEWED WITH
A DB CURVE ENHANCMENT, EIR REVEALS A RECENTLY FRAGMENTED
ARITHMETIC SPIRAL OF BLACK (-64 TO -69C), WHICH ILLUSTRATES THE
SYSTEMS DOWNWARD TREND. A 270805Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A RECENTLY COMPLETED EYE WALL WITH NUMEROUS FRAGMENTED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM ALL
QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE 25NM EYE IN BOTH EIR AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH GENERALLY INDICATE
127KTS. FINAL T NUMBERS CONTINUE TO FALL BASED ON THE EYE METHOD
AS THE COLDEST FULLY SURROUNDING TEMPERATURE WARMS BEYOND BLACK
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, FURTHER EVIDENCE THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DETERIORATING.


INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 113 KTS AT 271200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS:

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 02W (MAWAR) IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE COMING HOURS, 02W IS FORECASTED TO
BE DETHRONED AS A SUPER-TYPHOON AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON ITS
WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 24 AS 02W MOVES INTO AN EVEN LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY COOLING SSTS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST, INTENSITIES WILL FALL TO 110KTS. BY
TAU 48, AS 02W APPROACHES THE LUZON STRAIT, IT WILL ENTER A
COMPLEX AND COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT ENTRENCHED BETWEEN A
STR TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA AND THE OTHER STR TO
THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, WEAK OUTFLOW, COOLER SSTS AND
DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM CHINA, WILL CONSPIRE TO FURTHER WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM AS 02W TRANSITIONS TO A GENERALLY NORTHWARD HEADING.
AS THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY STEADIES UP ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK IN AN INCREASINGLY HARSH ENVIRONMENT, INTENSITIES WILL FALL
TO AROUND 60KTS BY TAU 120 AND CONTINUE TO FALL THEREAFTER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 110NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
DURING THIS TIME. AFTER TAU 72, THE COMPETING STEERING PATTERN
INCREASES THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK
WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS AND POSSIBLE
QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION EAST OF TAIWAN. COAMPS-TC (NVGM VERSION),
HWRF AND AFUM THROW CAUTION TO THE WIND AND PLOW STRAIGHT INTO THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO TAIWAN. THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE HOWEVER, STAYS CLOSE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWING
TAU 72. AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING OF
THE TURN, THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC TRACK MOTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN THE LATER TAUS, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE OUT TO TAU 72, BECOMING MEDIUM
THEREAFTER.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#426 Postby FireRat » Sat May 27, 2023 12:19 pm



Amazing loop, you can even see how fast Mawar's 'pinwheel' was spinning yesterday and how it slowed a little bit today, mirroring the storm's slight downgrade down to high end Cat 4 now.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#427 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat May 27, 2023 12:31 pm

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#428 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat May 27, 2023 1:16 pm

Image
:roll:
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#429 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat May 27, 2023 1:51 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Looks like it mixed in some dry air.


Yep - this structure is basically an open invitation for dry air to get ingested into the core. Intensification is going to be difficult from here on out especially as latest microwave shows another eyewall replacement cycle.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#430 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat May 27, 2023 2:41 pm

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#431 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 27, 2023 3:45 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)
WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.0N 129.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 580 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN EYE AT 15C AND
22 NM WIDE. A PARTIAL 271634Z AMSR2 89 GHZ PASS SHOWS THE BANDS
BECOMING FRAGMENTED AS THIS SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING RAPID WEAKENING.
THIS WEAKENING TREND IS DUE TO DRY AIR BEING INTRODUCED INTO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH, AS WELL AS THE SYSTEM PROXIMITY TO THE
COOLER (26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) TO THE NORTH. TC
MAWAR IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TROPICAL ACTIVITY.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, A HEALTHY 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, LOW (10-15
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 C) SST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY FIXES, ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR IMAGERY AND THE
RECENT AMSR2 PASS. DUE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING SCENARIO, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
OFF A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PARTIAL 271251Z ASCAT-B PASS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 133 KTS AT 271706Z
CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 271800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 28-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02W IS RIDING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH TAU 48, TC MAWAR WILL STAY
ALONG THIS TRAJECTORY AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED TROPICAL ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM
WILL SLOW DOWN IN TRACK SPEED AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS
FROM THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST TO A RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM OVER CHINA TO THE NORTHWEST. BY TAU 60 THROUGH TAU 72, THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A QUASI-STATIONARY POSTURE
AS THESE TWO RIDGES ORIENTATE THEMSELVES. BY TAU 96 AND BEYOND, THE
STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND
DRIVE TC MAWAR NORTHEASTWARD. ALL THE WHILE, THE INTENSITY WILL
STEADILY DECREASE DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VWS AND COOLER (25-26C) SSTS
ABOVE THE 20TH PARALLEL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, THEN SOME DISAGREEMENT AFTERWARDS AS THEY TRY TO
FIGURE OUT THE STR LOCATIONS DURING THE LATER TAUS. THE ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A RECURVE SCENARIO TO THE NORTHEAST
AFTER TAU 60. THE NAVGEM TRACKER IS THE OUTLIER SHOWING A
MORE EQUATORWARD TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEMBERS. DUE
TO THIS, THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE JUST
TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AFTERWARDS DUE TO THE SPREAD OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT SHOWING AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE RAPID WEAKENING, THE JTWC IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//

NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#432 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat May 27, 2023 5:12 pm

Image
Almost 0 chances of seeing any little intensification of this mess
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#433 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat May 27, 2023 7:20 pm

Max significant wave height of 14.7 meters (48.2 ft) recorded by a buoy near the eye of Mawar shortly after 18Z!

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#434 Postby Hayabusa » Sat May 27, 2023 8:18 pm

18Z
Image
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#435 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat May 27, 2023 8:44 pm

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#436 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat May 27, 2023 9:24 pm

Don't turn your cell phone upside down
Image
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#437 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun May 28, 2023 12:02 am

two eyes!
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#438 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun May 28, 2023 4:26 am

Looks like the eye of Mawar is staring to clear out.

Source - https://col.st/yo0td

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#439 Postby Hayabusa » Sun May 28, 2023 5:37 am

That possibly dry air mix due to the eyewall replacement really killed the chances of gaining a new strength despite the favorable environment, I guess we'll have to wait alteast July-September to really see some successful ones.
Though JTWC 06Z says there is no dry air in it
ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONVERGENT
FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#440 Postby mrbagyo » Sun May 28, 2023 7:09 am

Ayo, looks like Mawar's making a comeback, convection is starting to cool again and the CDO is getting a little less ragged.
Image
Image
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