WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

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FireRat
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#401 Postby FireRat » Fri May 26, 2023 12:06 pm

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Saw this earlier today on twitter haha, what a beast!!!
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#402 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri May 26, 2023 4:17 pm

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1662187235758751749



This EWRC of Mawar is the best EWRC i've seen. It managed to mantain a +10°C & very stable and circular eye without wobbles despite de Eyewall Replacement. Truly an Incredible, Spetacular and Amazing storm.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#403 Postby aspen » Fri May 26, 2023 4:58 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1662187235758751749?t=_7XDAHsubqcV4Pu5J5vaGg&s=19
This EWRC of Mawar is the best EWRC i've seen. It managed to mantain a +10°C & very stable and circular eye without wobbles despite de Eyewall Replacement. Truly an Incredible, Spetacular and Amazing storm.

Looks like, as some predicted, we got an eyewall meld. I guess it’s possible Mawar could restrengthen tonight into tomorrow now that the meld is over, but it’s quickly running out of time before atmospheric conditions start to become marginal at best.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#404 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri May 26, 2023 6:45 pm

aspen wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1662187235758751749?t=_7XDAHsubqcV4Pu5J5vaGg&s=19
This EWRC of Mawar is the best EWRC i've seen. It managed to mantain a +10°C & very stable and circular eye without wobbles despite de Eyewall Replacement. Truly an Incredible, Spetacular and Amazing storm.

Looks like, as some predicted, we got an eyewall meld. I guess it’s possible Mawar could restrengthen tonight into tomorrow now that the meld is over, but it’s quickly running out of time before atmospheric conditions start to become marginal at best.

I’m not convinced it’s an eyewall meld, but it’s a pretty seamless ERC nonetheless. The inner eyewall has remained remarkably stable through the process and is only now starting to drop out. Concentric eyewalls becoming quite clear on IR, which I don’t really remember seeing that distinctly with Irma’s meld.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#405 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri May 26, 2023 7:14 pm

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The eye just needs to become larger on VIS/IR now
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#406 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri May 26, 2023 7:36 pm

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#407 Postby dexterlabio » Fri May 26, 2023 8:34 pm

Hope someone makes a research paper regarding traditional EWRC vs. eyewall meld. It's a very interesting topic to cover.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#408 Postby mrbagyo » Fri May 26, 2023 8:42 pm

02W MAWAR 230527 0000 16.4N 133.3E WPAC 135 922
downgraded to high end cat 4
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#409 Postby canebeard » Fri May 26, 2023 8:45 pm

dexterlabio wrote:Hope someone makes a research paper regarding traditional EWRC vs. eyewall meld. It's a very interesting topic to cover.


I guess the question is: why in some circumstances does the moat become moot?
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#410 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri May 26, 2023 9:41 pm

Hayabusa wrote:HWRF peaks it at 871.5 mb, while winds at 165 knots :D
https://i.imgur.com/lLaTl7m.png
https://i.imgur.com/sIwpCvR.png


That would be challenging Super Typhoon Tip in terms of intensity. :eek:
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#411 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri May 26, 2023 9:55 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:https://imageshack.com/i/poLoov1Mj
The eye just needs to become larger on VIS/IR now

Man, seeing this I might have to shift my vote to meld. Not as quick or clean as Irma’s, but it looks like that outer eyewall contracted and took over before the inner even fell away.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#412 Postby Hayabusa » Sat May 27, 2023 12:11 am

AMSU made a 169 knots estimate this 00Z :lol:
CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
SUPER TYPHOON 02W
Saturday 27may23 Time: 0052 UTC
Latitude: 16.44 Longitude: 133.08
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 12 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 901 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 169 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 7.55
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 8.01
RMW: 41 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1008
Satellite: NOAA-93
ATCF data for Month: 05 Day: 27 Time (UTC): 0000
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#413 Postby dexterlabio » Sat May 27, 2023 12:15 am

Something's going on with the CDO, not sure but could this be dry air intrusion?
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#414 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat May 27, 2023 12:16 am

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#415 Postby MarioProtVI » Sat May 27, 2023 1:39 am

Models seem to be indicating Taiwan could be in for trouble down the road whether it’s the remnants or Mawar just going straight west into Taiwan as the HWRF is suggesting (after parking just offshore before moving inland shortly after). Could be a big flood problem.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#416 Postby REDHurricane » Sat May 27, 2023 4:39 am

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#417 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 27, 2023 6:17 am

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#418 Postby Hayabusa » Sat May 27, 2023 6:43 am

It's really frustrating there are no SMAP fixes since May 24th especially when it became 160 knots.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#419 Postby Hayabusa » Sat May 27, 2023 7:26 am

Hayabusa wrote:It's really frustrating there are no SMAP fixes since May 24th especially when it became 160 knots.

Finally an SMAP fix just came in, fix was from today at 0847Z, 148 knots pretty high in contrast to how it looks
WP, 02, 202305270847, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1660N, 13220E, , 1, 138, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 253, 139, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 02, 202305270847, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1660N, 13220E, , 1, 138, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 125, 60, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 02, 202305270847, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1660N, 13220E, , 1, 138, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 66, 35, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon

#420 Postby wxman57 » Sat May 27, 2023 7:37 am

Not nearly as impressive on satellite now. Dvorak indicating 100-115 kts. Maybe closer to 115 kts than 100 kts.
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