WPAC: GUCHOL - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: GUCHOL - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Wed May 31, 2023 7:08 pm

98W.INVEST
98W INVEST 230531 1800 6.9N 143.4E WPAC 15 0

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Thu Jun 01, 2023 4:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#2 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed May 31, 2023 10:50 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jun 01, 2023 4:14 am

00Z
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jun 01, 2023 8:23 am

06z
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Jun 02, 2023 2:07 am

00z Euro develops it ala Mawar track again
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Jun 02, 2023 5:46 am

Now low
ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZJUN2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020151ZJUN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 02JUN23 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 27.0N 129.6E, APPROXIMATELY 101 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB,
AND HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 020300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N
142.1E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC AS
EVIDENCED BY A 020032Z ASCAT METOP-C BULLSEYE PASS. CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALSO EVIDENT IN RECENT TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. THUS FAR, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN MINIMAL. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-10 KNOT) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMELINE AND LOCATION OF FORMATION.
HOWEVER, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WILL
PASS TO THE WEST OF GUAM, BUT THE EASTERN INFLOW REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED HIGHER WINDS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD AFFECT GUAM
AND THE CNMI IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#7 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 02, 2023 8:11 am

El Nino year and considering the rising motion still over the WPAC, it's an expectation that something develops out of this or the system just to its east.

GFS develops this within the next 72 hours while the Euro keeps this weak until day 7.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#8 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Jun 02, 2023 8:19 am

06Z
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Jun 02, 2023 8:12 pm

98W INVEST 230603 0000 10.3N 140.5E WPAC 20 1005

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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#10 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Jun 03, 2023 8:19 am

06Z
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#11 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jun 04, 2023 3:30 am

00z
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#12 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jun 04, 2023 8:18 am

06z
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#13 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jun 04, 2023 9:29 am

Up to med
ABPW10 PGTW 041400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041400Z-050600ZJUN2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.5N 137.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION
BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 040758Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS FURTHER REVEALS AN IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 041144Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B
PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED BUT IMPROVING CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF
15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 98W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, DEFINED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 30C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL HAVE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT MEANDERS
POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#14 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jun 04, 2023 7:55 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#15 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jun 04, 2023 8:32 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 04, 2023 9:14 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#17 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jun 04, 2023 11:54 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#18 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:39 am

TCFA
Image
ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZJUN2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050551JUN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.9N 137.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 134.4E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 050017Z ASCAT-B
BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH
OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 98W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY POLEWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 050600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#19 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:13 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#20 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:11 pm

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