SIO: CHIDO - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

92S INVEST 241205 1800 11.9S 85.1E SHEM 20 1006

[OtakuForecaster]

I don't know the climatology of that area well (meaning I don't know what La Nina could be doing to enhance tropical cyclone activity in the area), but these numbers so far for the season seem rather interesting:



Image credit: Phil Klotzbach, CSU

I also don't know if there's a correlation between early-season activity and later season activity in this basin like there isn't in the Atlantic; I'd imagine not, though?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04-20242025

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1002 hPa.

Position on December 9 at 10 p.m. local time Reunion: 11.3 South / 62.3 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1280 km in the NORTH-EAST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1870 km to the EAST sector

Movement: WEST, at 13 km/h.


System Information:

Tropical depression 04-20242025 is located this Monday evening at 10 p.m. approximately 600 km east-southeast of Agaléga.

The system is expected to continue its general westward track while continuing to intensify slowly. It is likely to reach moderate tropical storm status by late tonight or Tuesday morning (it would be named CHIDO). Further intensification to severe tropical storm status is expected Wednesday and Thursday, before a possible weakening late in the week, although the forecast remains very uncertain.

During the day on Wednesday, the system is expected to transit south of Agalega, bringing worsening weather, accompanied by strong winds and dangerous seas. Residents are strongly advised to closely monitor the evolution of the system through the Mauritius Meteorological Service.

[Subtrop]

The Tropical Depression which was evolving to the east-south-east of Agalega has intensified into a Moderate Tropical Storm during the night. It has been named “CHIDO” by the Mauritius Meteorological Services at 0000UTC, this Tuesday 10 December 2024.

There are indications that the Moderate tropical storm 'CHIDO' may intensify further as it tracks westwards.

[cycloneye]

STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 4

(CHIDO)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 988 hPa.

Position on December 11 at 04:00 local time: 10.7 South / 59.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1190 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 1530 km to sector: EAST

Movement: WEST, at 13 km/h.


System Information:

- The intensity of CHIDO is stagnating at the stage of a strong tropical storm but a progressive intensification is expected in the coming hours.

- CHIDO is located just over 250 km east-southeast of Agalega and is continuing its trajectory towards the west. The system is expected to continue to intensify over the next two days, reaching tropical cyclone status in the morning or this afternoon. Subsequently, a slight weakening is possible as it passes over (or in the immediate vicinity of) the Northern Point of Madagascar during the night from Friday to Saturday. Then once in the Mozambique Channel, further intensification to severe tropical storm status is possible before making landfall at the end of the weekend on the coast of Mozambique. However, there is uncertainty about the intensity of the system from Friday onwards.

- Today, the system will transit to the immediate south of Agalega less than 50km away, bringing a deterioration in the weather with heavy rains that may be accompanied by flash floods and landslides. In addition, destructive winds and dangerous seas are expected. An improvement is expected late tonight. Residents should keep informed of the evolving situation through their national weather service and prepare for the arrival of the phenomenon by urgently completing the required prevention measures, and by complying with the decisions and recommendations of local authorities.

- Then CHIDO is expected to pass just under 150km south of Farquhar on Thursday night. Although further out to the periphery of the system, the weather is expected to deteriorate during the day on Thursday with heavy rain and dangerous seas. Residents are advised to follow the development of the forecast, via their national weather service.

- The system is then expected to pass over (or in the immediate vicinity of) the northern tip of Madagascar late Friday. A deterioration in weather conditions in the northern part of the Antsiranana region is expected in the afternoon of Friday, accompanied by strong winds and dangerous seas. Residents are advised to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national weather service.

- Concerning Mayotte, it is still too early to estimate the possible influence that this system could have during the weekend, due to the uncertainty in the trajectory forecast which is of the order of 300km at these times.

[cycloneye]

Looks like it will be a strong cyclone as it threats northern Madagascar.

[Subtrop]

FKIO20 FMEE 110627
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20241211/0627Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: CHIDO
ADVISORY NR: 2024/06
OBS PSN: 11/0600Z S1032 E05821
CB: WI 200NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520
MOV: W 07KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 969HPA
MAX WIND: 80KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 11/1200Z S1032 E05737
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 90KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 11/1800Z S1032 E05649
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 95KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 12/0000Z S1033 E05554
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 95KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 12/0600Z S1039 E05453
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 95KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20241211/1200Z=

[cycloneye]

Impressive.

[WaveBreaking]

Current State of the Union. Just north of JTWC’s track.

[Ernestt]

Looks like major landfall on the island of Vingt-Cinq, don't think they've seen such a powerful storm before. The last time Vingt-Cinq faced such a strong storm was Cat 2 Andry in 1983, it damaged or destroyed every single house on the island

[Ernestt]

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres? ... 11&hora=14

Weather station on the island

[Teban54]

Best looking potential tropical cyclone ever

[WaveBreaking]

Every time the microwave satellites miss this cyclone a small part of me dies

[Hurricane2022]

[WaveBreaking]

JTWC has it up to 100kts now

[Teban54]

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/EKMeteo/status/1866919376571838590

[cycloneye]

Bulletin of December 12 at 4:00 a.m. local time in Reunion Island (3:00 a.m. local time in Mayotte):

A low pressure system is currently present over the South-West Indian Ocean.

There is no current cyclone alert in Reunion.

The prefecture has placed Mayotte on PRE-CYCLONIC ALERT: potential threat in the coming days.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE number 4

(CHIDO)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 175 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 250 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 951 hPa.

Position on December 12 at 04:00 local time: 10.6 South / 55.6 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1140 km to the sector: NORTH

Distance from Mayotte: 1160 km to sector: EAST

Movement: WEST, at 19 km/h.


- CHIDO passed over AGALEGA yesterday at 1830UTC as an intense tropical cyclone with wind gusts estimated at around 250km/h and a measured pressure of 950.8hPa. It is now located more than 100km west of AGALEGA. Conditions will improve but residents should keep informed of the situation through their national meteorological service (http://metservice.intnet.mu/).

- CHIDO continues on a westward trajectory maintaining its intensity.

- Over the next 12 hours, CHIDO could continue to intensify. Beyond that, Cyclone CHIDO could weaken slightly as it moves towards the west-southwest. During the night from Thursday to Friday, CHIDO could move about a hundred km south of the Farquhar archipelago. A deterioration in the weather is expected at the end of the day on Thursday with possible heavy rain, dangerous seas and possibly strong winds before improving on Friday. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecast, through their national weather service.

- In the longer term, CHIDO should pass nearly 100km north of the northern tip of Madagascar on Friday evening and Mayotte on Saturday during the day. At the end of the weekend, CHIDO could finally land on the coast of Mozambique. The distance and timing of passage at the level of these territories are still uncertain, given the deadlines.

- In northern Madagascar (Antsiranana province), a deterioration in weather conditions is expected from Friday morning, accompanied by heavy rain, strong winds and dangerous seas, particularly in the north of the region. Conditions should improve late Saturday. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts, through their national meteorological service (https://www.meteomadagascar.mg/).

- Concerning Mayotte, the prefect placed the department on cyclone pre-alert yesterday. The system is expected to pass in the immediate vicinity of the island and a deterioration in weather conditions is expected from Saturday morning with strong winds, heavy rain and possible marine submersion. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts, through their national meteorological service (https://meteofrance.yt/fr). The extent of the deterioration will depend a lot on the distance of the system's passage.

- For the Comoros, CHIDO is expected to pass in the immediate vicinity of the Archipelago and lead to a deterioration in weather conditions from Saturday with strong winds, heavy rains and possible marine submersion. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts, through their national meteorological service. The extent of the deterioration will depend a lot on the distance of the system's passage.

- For Mozambique, it is still too early to estimate the influences that this system could have during the weekend, due to the uncertainty in the forecast and the small size of the system.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/AlanSevere/status/1867012105976811535

[Hurricane2022]

Eyewall meld?