BoB: Deep Depression

[Subtrop]

90B INVEST 260103 1800 6.0N 87.0E IO 15 1009

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.1N 89.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 87.0E, APPROXIMATELY 632 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND AN 070105Z 91 HZ SSMIS PASS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 90B TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
TOWARD SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 90B. ECENS
STANDS OUT DEPICTING QUICK DEVELOPMENT. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
STILL RELUCTANT IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF 90B WITH ECMWF
SHOWING THE MOST CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/CycloneAnalyser/status/2009214086744297794

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.2N 86.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM EAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 071505Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A PATCH OF ELEVATED
WINDS (25-30KTS) ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CONSOLIDATING,
MERIDIONALLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), OBSCURED
BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PARTIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONG POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C, THOUGH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) COULD HINDER INTENSIFICATION BY DISRUPTING
CONVECTION. BOTH GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH
ENSEMBLE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, PREDICTING QUICKER AND
MORE INTENSE DEVELOPMENT OF 90B. IN CONTRAST, GFS AND NAVGEM
DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN RELUCTANT TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM BEYOND
35 KNOTS, WHILE ECMWF SHOWS MODEST CONSOLIDATION, ONLY BRIEFLY
REACHING 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27
TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH

[Hurricane2022]

Sub: Deep Depression over southwest & adjoining areas of southeast Bay of Bengal and
East Equatorial Indian Ocean
The depression over southwest & adjoining areas of southeast Bay of Bengal and
East Equatorial Indian Ocean moved nearly west-northwestwards with a speed of 15
kmph during past 6 hours, intensified into a Deep Depression and lay centred at 0000
of today, the 8th January, 2026 over the same region, near latitude 5.4°N and longitude
85.3°E, about 420 km east-southeast of Pottuvil (Sri Lanka), 470 km east-southeast of
Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 470 km east-southeast of Hambantota (Sri Lanka), 570 km
southeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 860 km southeast of Karaikal (Puducherry) and
1020 km south-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu).
It is very likely to move west-northwestwards across southwest Bay of Bengal during
next 36 hours and cross Sri Lanka coast between Hambantota and Kalmunai around 12
UTC – 18 UTC of tomorrow, the 9th January 2026.
The estimated central pressure is about 1006 hPa. The associated maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 knots. Sea condition is very rough with significant wave height of 5.0
m.