SPAC: KOJI - Tropical Cyclone

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92P INVEST 260106 0600 15.5S 149.3E SHEM 20 1003

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.8S 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 148.0E, APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION. A
060353Z AMSR2 PASS SHOWS MINIMAL CONVECTION AND A DISORGANIZED
STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEAL A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30
C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 92P STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE
EVENTUALLY TRACKING WEST TOWARDS THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. GFS IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BUT IT IS STILL
HESITANT OF 92P FULLY CONSOLIDATING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE GENERALLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON THE FORMATION THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.8S 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 152.0E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 070258Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTER. A 062305Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF SHARP
TROUGHING WITH 20 KNOT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30
C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARD. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME HESITANCE ON 92P, WITH GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING POOR CONSOLIDATION WITH A BROAD WIND FIELD. IN
CONTRAST, ENSEMBLE MODELS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
92P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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Details of Tropical Low 12U at 10:00 am AEST:

Intensity
Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.

Location
within 65 kilometres of 16.7 degrees South 147.9 degrees East, estimated to be 310 kilometres north northeast of Townsville and 230 kilometres east of Cairns.

Movement
south at 17 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low (12U) is located in the Coral Sea between the North Tropical Coast and Willis Island and is continuing to move south-southwest, towards the Queensland coast.

Tropical Low 12U is forecast to reach tropical cyclone intensity later this evening, before crossing the coast between Cardwell and Bowen, most likely early on Sunday.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 148.0E, APPROXIMATELY 127 NM
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 092105Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE A BROAD AND
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP, PERSISTENT CONVECTION
ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 091514Z
AMSR2 WINDSPEED PRODUCT DEPICTED A BROAD REGION OF LIGHT WINDS AT THE
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION, AND GALE TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE
OUTER PERIPHERY, WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) EXCEEDING 100NM,
CHARACTERIZING 92P AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION (MD). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM WILLIS ISLAND HAVE SHOWN PERSISTENT GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
RISING PRESSURE SINCE 1900Z, WHILE OBSERVATIONS AT FLINDERS REEF
INDICATE FALLING PRESSURES AND STEADY NEAR-GALE FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT; THE SYSTEM IS ENSCONCED IN A TINY POCKET OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, HAS GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND IS POSITIONED OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF
28-29C IN THE CORAL SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT,
MAINTAINING A DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED STRUCTURE AS INVEST 93S TRACKS
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. HOWEVER, THE GFS REMAINS A
NOTABLE OUTLIER, DEPICTING SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION
IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.

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INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
ROTATION, EXHIBITING ASPECTS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION TYPE SYSTEM,
WITH A SMALL INNER-CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING JUST
OFFSHORE OF BOWEN. ANIMATED RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ALVA BEACH AND BOWEN INDICATE
THE LLCC REMAINS OFFSHORE AS OF THE 1800Z HOUR. A 101812Z SSMIS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE-BASED ARCHER ANALYSIS PLACES THE LLCC EAST OF
ALVA BEACH AS WELL. THE HIGHEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
ARE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, OBSERVATIONS FROM
HAMILTON BAY HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN ABOVE 40-45 KNOTS, LIKELY DUE
TO THE EXPOSED NATURE OF THE OBSERVATION SITE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS THUS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGREEMENT OF THE
VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES ABOVE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BIASED TOWARDS THE
HIGHER END OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS, WARM
SSTS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY PROXIMITY TO LAND AND THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE VORTEX.

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 https://x.com/BOM_au/status/2010072248523137488