94P INVEST 260110 1200 13.4S 161.7E SHEM 15 1006
SPAC: INVEST 94P
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 94P
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.2S
160.9E, APPROXIMATELY 399 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, COMPLETELY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPARSE CONVECTION
DISPLACED FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. A 121031Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWED A
PATCH OF 30-35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON 94P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS
SHOW LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE
CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE STRUCTURE OF 94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.
160.9E, APPROXIMATELY 399 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, COMPLETELY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPARSE CONVECTION
DISPLACED FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. A 121031Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWED A
PATCH OF 30-35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON 94P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS
SHOW LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE
CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE STRUCTURE OF 94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.
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